The All-Star Break has come and gone. It should have marked my three-week hiatus from MLB handicapping like I usually do each year. Instead, I could not stay away and broke down the Phillies/Red Sox game on Saturday. The only thing worse than my take on that game was Boston’s bullpen. It was bad enough that some dude on the internet said that he could not imagine being that far off on a handicap. Guess I should have slept in that day! News flash – I’ve ended up with worse results than than one quite a few times over the years! The final stretch is upon us, so let’s start strong with the MLB Morning Breakdown for 7-16-2021…
2021 Featured Handicap Results
Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels (-165)
The Seattle Mariners find themselves in surprisingly-good position exiting the All-Star Break. They may be 7 games out of first place in the AL West, but their 48-43 record puts them just 3.5 games out of Wild Card position. Tonight they begin a three-game series with the Los Angeles Angels, who actually sit 2 games behind Seattle in 4th place in the West.
In terms of handicapping, I’ve learned my lesson over the years when it comes to not getting steamrolled on the home stretch of the MLB season. And this first series out of the box can be tricky for someone like me who weighs current form on par with a team’s season-long profile. Do we hit the reset button or will teams who had momentum going into the break continue those trends? At this point, we know a lot about each team and the context of the the game in 2021. In fact, our friend and fellow handicapper Tek said last night during the Wager Rager podcast that we need to be looking more at unders given all of the dynamics of this year’s game. So why am I looking for runs in Anaheim tonight?
Playing to Their Strengths
I’ll be frank – what is keeping me off of the Seattle side this evening is the Angels’ offense, which was tuned up quite nicely going into the break. They could be getting third baseman Anthony Rendon back in the lineup as well, though I have not found confirmation early this morning as his 10-day IL status is set to expire. Even without Rendon and Mike Trout, my situational offensive adjustment for the Angels is 127.3. That’s very strong. Some dude named Shohei Ohtani has a little something to do with it.
On the flip side, a Seattle Mariners squad that has posted an 89 wRC+ this season gets a slight lift playing away from T-Mobile Park. All things considered, my raw situational offensive adjustment for them tonight is a more modest 90.4. Like the Angels’ Rendon, I am unsure whether Seattle’s third baseman Kyle Seager will be back after being scratched last weekend with a shin bruise. That 90.4 offensive factor could realistically be ticked up considering what we saw out of this lineup in their last road trip. Over their 3-game set at the White Sox and 3 games at the Blue Jays, the Mariners slashed .271/.351/.481 for a 133 wRC+. That is significantly higher than what I am factoring into this handicap, though L.A.’s starting pitcher and bullpen leave plenty of upside for this club.
C. Flexen (R) vs. A. Heaney (L)
Chris Flexen has been a nice addition for Seattle this season, though my main caution in backing him is his home/road splits. The 27-year-old righty epitomizes the sentiment there’s no place like home as his season-long 3.58 FIP/4.35 xFIP inflates to 4.94/5.13 outside of Seattle. Plus his K-BB% gets slashed in half to 7.7% on the road and WHIP nearly doubles to 1.74. Even though he went 7 scoreless innings against this same Angels team last weekend, I am hesitant to back him away from T-Mobile. Of Flexen’s six road starts, only one yielded less than 3 earned runs.
I like how the road warriors set up against lefty Andrew Heaney, who has some interesting splits of his own. Heaney has actually been strong in Anaheim this season (3.57 FIP/3.80 xFIP), though he managed to hold opponents under 3 runs in only three of his eight home starts. Are the Mariners on par with the offenses of Boston and San Francisco? Not even close. Plus this is a scenario where my concern with overvaluing current form out of the break could be validated – unfortunately. Heaney’s last four starts yielded 18 runs, though the Angels squared off against quality lineups in all of those outings. Likewise, Seattle’s last road trip concluded two weeks ago and that momentum could very well have fizzled. But now is not the time to get completely scared off of my handicap – it’s time to fire!
WAGER: Mariners Team Total Over 4 +110
ALTERNATIVE: Mariners Team Total Over 3.5 -120
That said, I am backing the Mariners offense tonight against Heaney and the Angels’ bullpen. He could very well go 6 full innings and take pressure off of his mid-4.00s FIP bullpen. I have to consider that a strong possibility. But we get nine full at bats from the visiting team, and my base 90.4 adjustment for the Seattle lineup is still good enough to establish a reasonable floor of 4 runs with upside. I’m starting the “second half” of the season on the aggressive side by going for plus-money with the over 4, though 3.5 with modest -120 juice is not hateful by any means. BOL to you all coming out of the break!
Around the Horn
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