The MLB Morning Breakdown for 7-10-2021 is finally back after close to three weeks on the sidelines! During that time, I had close to five days of internet detox in the Flat Tops Wilderness of Colorado with no cell service and no internet whatsoever. That was a fantastic reset to everything going on in life – work, baseball, writing for our website, projects at the homestead, and so on. But after a few days, ideas start to creep back into the mind about this and that. And some of those first thoughts that came from the “outside” were about baseball handicapping. It’s what I love to do…what can I say?!?
How can I tighten things up and make my handicapping process better? These incremental improvements – refining data, improving my workflow, sliding in additional elements, etc. – are what we have to do every single season to stay sharp. Now the MLB calendar is at a point where projections have much less importance as most of us know what the teams are made of. Season-long metrics define teams’ offenses, bullpens, and starting pitching; but current form is now an even stronger factor to consider. Especially in the dog days of summer as the teams cruise into the All-Star Break. We have a couple more days of ball before the midsummer hiatus, so let’s jump in and try to grind out a winner or two this weekend…
2021 Featured Handicap Results
Philadelphia Phillies @ Boston Red Sox (-145)
Home sweet home! Boston’s six-game west coast road trip resulted in a 3-3 split but you could tell that this formidable offense was a bit gassed in Los Angeles. In fact, the Red Sox posted the second-lowest wRC+ in the league in that seven-day stretch at Oakland and L.A. Thursday’s day off paid dividends as they routed the Phillies 11-5 in their homecoming. Philly hit a speed bump in their attempt to surge into the break – coming in from Chicago where they took three of four while pounding the Cubbies for 39 runs.
Philadelphia’s awakened offense was surprising to the extent that they have not been as explosive on the road in 2021. Their proliferation in the Chicago series was a major surprise to me, though that’s what this team can do when their core of Realmuto, Harper, and Hoskins are clicking like they are right now. Throw in great production from McCutcheon, Gregorius, and Bohm; and this lineup can be one of the most threatening in the league. Today, they face a veteran lefty at Fenway – a couple of factors that are at odds with one another.
My situational offensive adjustment for the Phils today is 100.0, which is right on par with average MLB production. On the flip side, Boston’s adjustment is 116.8. JD Martinez has gotten himself together after sleepwalking through June, folks. This club is rested and ready to roll yet again this afternoon at Fenway Park. But did they blow it all last night, or is something still in the tank for the final two games of this series? Let’s take things one game at a time and see what the pitching staffs have to say about it.
M. Moore (L) vs. M. Perez (L)
This pair of southpaws is tasked with putting the brakes on a couple of threatening offenses. Philly’s Matt Moore has pulled himself off the mat after just 10.0 MLB innings in 2019 and his recent stint in Japan. He finds himself again filling the #5 rotation slot after being relegated to the bullpen in May. As opposed to the start of the season, this latest run as a starting pitcher has been much more successful. Moore blanked the Mets on just 3 hits in 5.0 innings then gave up 2 runs on 4.0 innings against the slumping Cubs offense on Monday.
Matt Moore leans heavily on a fastball that has lost a step – the guy is 32 years old, after all – while mixing in a curve and changeup as his main secondary pitches. Unfortunately, neither of Moore’s two main change-of-pace offerings have been sharp this season. Then you must consider that Boston’s core hitters do not get fooled by curves and changes very easily. Yet I still give Matt Moore enough respect to gauge him at just under a 5.00 FIP level. He is far from an auto fade, but still presents a favorable matchup for the Red Sox lineup. After all, Moore has been barreled up at a 11.1% rate and yields hard contact at 39.5%. Although I respect the fact that he is maintaining a solid ground ball rate at his career level of just under 40%.
Defending Fenway
His counterpart, 30-year-old Martin Perez, has had plenty of ups and downs this season as well. Surely his 7-4 record would look much differently without a stout lineup and defense behind him. Perez strung together four mid-4.00s xFIP performances together in a row, earning him a 3-0 record in this stretch. The main problem that Martin poses is a 39.8% hard hit rate, mainly due to a struggling cutter that was a strong suit for him since abandoning the slider in 2019. In 2021, the cutter is a big liability that contributes to his .328 BABIP despite walks being down and a career-best 2.41 K/BB ratio.
Although I grade Perez on the low end of a mid-4.00s FIP starter, the Phillies will have plenty of opportunities to score against a guy that has been much less effective at home this season. So my adjustments put him on the higher end of the mid-4.00s. The key factor that pushes me towards the Red Sox side – as opposed to simply backing their offense via a team total – is that their bullpen is on call to pull through the final 3-4 innings this afternoon. Boston’s back end trio of Matt Barnes, Adam Ottavino, and Josh Taylor have not worked since Monday; while their phenomenal middle reliever Garrett Whitlock has been idle since Wednesday. This rest advantage pairs well with the fact that their relief unit’s trailing 14-day trend is very positive.
That is diametrically opposed to a Phillies bullpen whose current form is not nearly as sharp. Joe Girardi has managed this unit fairly well during their eight straight days of action though. He used seven different relievers over the past two days – none of which pitched in back-to-back outings. Regardless, everyone knows how much of a liability this group continues to be. Don’t be surprised if both Moore and Perez offer their opponents plenty of chances to plate runs in the early innings. However, Boston has the late-inning edge even if you want to take the stance that both lineups are on equal footing right now.
WAGER: Red Sox -140 (1/2 unit)
WAGER: Red Sox Run Line +120 (1/2 unit)
ALTERNATIVE: Red Sox -1 -115
Give me the home team, even if they are a tad chalky. Boston’s team total of Over 5.5 -125 is just about right when it comes to price. Granted, I just made the case for plenty of scoring from Boston but needing 6 runs to cover that -125 outlay is not quite where I want to be with cooler temperatures and a small breeze coming in at Fenway this afternoon. Hell, the Sox could very well put up another 10-spot today but I like my split position better – essentially laying -120 for a crack at a +110 payout with push protection if they only win by a single run. And despite having a few other leans on a Saturday full of action, I’ll exhibit some restraint and stick with this solo shot as we all try to get to the All-Star Break in one piece.
Around the Horn
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