The second half of the 2023 MLB season is here after what seemed like the longest All-Star Break in a while. I missed the game and I missed handicapping it even though the break lined up well with a hectic workweek. The lackluster first half of featured handicaps represented about 20% of my total betting action – 50 out of 255 positions – presenting the additional challenge of picking some better spots to write about moving forward. As if handicapping and getting down wasn’t hard enough! That said, let’s roll right into Friday’s action with a Solo Shot in the MLB Morning Breakdown for 7-14-2023. BOL this weekend and we’ll catch you all Monday morning.
2023 Featured Handicap Results
BOSTON RED SOX @ CHICAGO CUBS (BOS -120, 9.5)
The Boston Red Sox stood out as a team that did not want to see the All-Star Break descend upon the league. Having won five straight and eight of their last ten games heading into the break, the Red Sox find themselves buried in the AL East but are only a couple games out of a Wild Card slot. Chicago also faces a big hill to climb in their division as NL Central leaders Brewers and Reds – yes, the Cincinnati Reds – battle it out this weekend. The Swanson-less Cubs offense sputtered into the break but have new life after four days off. So which club finds itself in the best position to pick up a much-needed win in tonight’s series opener?
B Bello (R) vs. K Hendricks (R)
Longtime Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks has a lot to do with answering that question. A prolonged IL stint to start the season due to shoulder injury gave way to a solid 3.04 ERA and 3.73 FIP over 9 starts. Aside from a handful of outings with multiple walks, Hendricks has been his usual get the ball over the plate and put it in play self. The low 14.9% strikeout rate, .246 BABIP, and suppressed 0.68 HR/9 ratio easily explain the 4.79 xFIP and 4.85 SIERA to date. So here we are again looking at a pitcher that is statistically fortunate to have such a low ERA. Advanced metrics don’t necessarily pay the bills though.
24-year-old ground ball aficionado Brayan Bello opposes the crafty veteran, loosely playing the role of vintage Kyle Hendricks. Since June rolled around, Bello has consistently gone deep into games regardless of how good opposing lineups have been. Toning it down on walks and striving for ground ball contact is a huge part of his success. But he too has a deceptive 3.04 ERA due to a low-ish 20.8% strikeout rate and borderline iffy hard contact against him. All that said, Bello’s 3.77 FIP/3.93 xFIP and 4.02 SIERA line up quite well with expectation even though his current form outpaces those numbers.
A Confident Handoff
My handicap puts both starters into the 6th inning with a little more skew towards a shorter outing for Kendricks as opposed to Bello. Since today is as close to Opening Day as it gets in the long MLB season, the difference between a 5-inning and a 7-inning outing is less impactful than it would have been a week ago. Bullpens are rested and in decent shape. There are nuances to that broad statement with these particular units but no need to get into those weeds with all options on the table. Both back end groups are good enough to pick up 3-4 innings this evening without a huge disparity in effectiveness.
WAGER: Red Sox -120 (0.75u)
I’ve taken plenty of foolish positions over the years on the merits of expected numbers like what tonight’s starters bring to the table. Both are in the business of putting the ball in play and, as of this morning, weather looks slightly biased towards offense with a breeze out and mid-70s temps. Ground ball tendencies de-emphasize the weather to a degree though. But there are two key factors behind my wager: 1) a firm half-run or better edge to Brayan Bello over Kyle Hendricks, and 2) the 10% premium that Boston’s lineup brings to town over Chicago’s.
After running the numbers through my process, I devalued this offensive gap due to players recuperating over the All-Star Break. Plus the strong note that Boston’s lineup ended the first half on gets shaved a bit. Likewise, the sluggishness of the Cubs offense becomes less of a detraction for Chicago backers. But tinkering with some scenarios leaves me with a core win probability range around 1-2% better than the market price of -120. That comes with three key arguments against the Red Sox tonight:
- The wide gap between Hendricks’ expected numbers and actual numbers. Do they manifest against a potent Red Sox lineup?
- A hot run by this up-and-down Boston lineup to end the first half leaned heavily on Masataka Yoshida and a streaky Jarren Duran at the top of the lineup. Is Durran fully healthy and ready to go? After all, speed is a big part of his game.
- Ms. JJ often asks, “Did you write about that bet? Chalk it up as a loss if you did.” Yeah, it’s like that. BOL to y’all.
Heading for Home
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