The MLB Morning Breakdown returns after a brief hiatus while on the road, just in time for next week’s All-Star Break. Volume is down on my end as my handicapping aligns with the market too frequently these days. This annual slowdown has prompted a big push on my player prop game to fill in the gaps from sides and totals as the season heads down the homestretch. Let’s dive right into an AL East matchup anchoring the MLB Morning Breakdown for 7-11-2025. BOL with your action this weekend!
TAMPA BAY RAYS @ BOSTON RED SOX (TBR -115, 9)
D Rasmussen (R) / J Boyle (R) vs. H Dobbins (R)
The surging Boston Red Sox – who still find themselves in fourth place in the AL East – took the first of a four-game set against division foe Tampa Bay last night. Kevin Cash is expected to employ a tandem starting pitching approach with right-handers Drew Rasmussen and Joe Boyle like he did on July 6th against the Twins. The plan to get 7+ innings out these two then dip into the bullpen’s strong side worked well last week. Is it good enough to fend off a potent Boston offense though?
Taj Bradley stymied the Sox lineup quite effectively last night but couldn’t pitch all 9 innings. Freshly-acquired Bryan Baker came out of the bullpen to pour gasoline onto a smoldering fire. That overshadowed Bradley rebounding from a rough patch of his own – something Rasmussen would like to mimic in his 2-3 innings tonight. The 29-year-old’s effectiveness has come and gone through the 2025 season as he notched the second-highest innings count of his career. Cash’s approach to limit Drew’s workload and integrate 25-year-old Joe Boyle into the rotation could be the right tool for the job tonight.
In the big picture, Rasmussen delivers mid-3.00s stuff by virtue of plenty of ground ball contact. But he is bumping up against a workload threshold given his injury history. Boyle, who hasn’t given up an earned run in two starts this season, garners 4.00+ projections based on middling K/BB numbers across his brief MLB resume. A hard 4-seamer and new splitter fuel optimism for the Rays’ diamond in the rough. Countering the tandem is Hunter Dobbins fresh off of a rehab assignment from an elbow injury suffered in late June. The 4.00+ rookie has gotten by without too much harm despite a low 17.3% strikeout rate. I hate to read too much into home/away splits but his 3.22 ERA and 3.28 FIP/3.76 xFIP at Fenway doesn’t hurt the cause.
Whose Bats Will Make the Difference?
Boston’s lineup likely regains veteran third baseman Alex Bregman tonight. The former Astros cornerstone had a monster start to the 2025 campaign before injuring a hamstring in late May. He rejoins a Devers-less lineup that has found another gear over the past month. Last night’s modest production aside, the Sox are in the midst of a 14-day heater. The key caveat being the 29 runs against Colorado pitching earlier this week. Tampa Bay’s pitching is undoubtedly head-and-shoulders better than the Rockies. Yet the tall task of stifling the likes of Jarren Duran, Roman Anthony, and company persists for a second straight night. Limiting exposure to the bulk of the Rays’ bullpen is a must as this unit has shot itself in the foot quite a bit recently.
Tampa Bay’s lineup has sorely missed left-handed hitting second baseman Brandon Lowe this week. Taylor Walls and recently reinstated Ha-Seong Kim have filled in the middle infield nicely while Jonathan Aranda and rookie speedster Chandler Simpson worked their way into mini heaters. Without Lowe, these two lefties have been especially crucial in the Rays’ continued success against right-handed hitting. Hunter Dobbins will be put to the test, although a relatively fresh Boston bullpen should comfortably confine him to a solid 5 innings.
WAGER: Red Sox -105 (to win 0.5u)
The short price on the home dog is worth a play for me even after adjusting for Boston’s recent series against Colorado. Despite a strong return from the IL, Joe Boyle has plenty to prove against a potent Sox lineup. To be fair, Hunter Dobbins could have his hands full as well this evening. -105 is too much of a deal in my opinion given the circumstances and the strategic advantage of playing at home. Boston’s offensive surge may be beginning to wane but -121 is the bottom limit to my range. That makes Boston a buy despite the funky pitching situation.
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