What a long strange trip it’s been. That was to be expected with Amsterdam anyhow. Getting home from Germany took an unexpected twist though, eating up all of Sunday and most of Monday. It’s good to get our feet back on U.S. soil and get my handicapping tools updated after close to two weeks across the pond. Time to jump back into the game with a solo shot in the MLB Morning Breakdown for 6-6-2023. BOL!
2023 Featured Handicap Results
OAKLAND ATHLETICS @ PITTSBURGH PIRATES (PIT -230, 8.5)
Yesterday’s opener to this series between last year’s divisional cellar dwellers resulted in a familiar outcome: an Oakland bullpen letdown en route to a loss. JP Sears was all over the place yet oddly effective while Johan Oviedo hung in there for a full 7 innings. That was enough to keep his club in the ballgame. One key takeaway is the Bucs’ bullpen getting a bit of a reprieve with closer David Bednar and setup man Dauri Moreta resting after a very active weekend. Having the likes of Moreta, Jose Hernandez, and Yohan Ramirez ready to roll is important for Pittsburgh. I’m not completely confident that Bednar will get the nod tonight though.
The betting line in strong favor of Mitch Keller and the Pirates seems obvious. The Pirates are showing significant improvement over the 62-win team of 2022 as opposed to Oakland doing their best to fall well short of the 60-win mark. Pittsburgh has been an average offensive team to date, yet still above my expectations even as a preseason bull on their 62.5 win total. And they currently sit in positive trailing 14-day and 7-day cycles at the plate. Compare that to Oakland lagging significantly in these same periods. What goes up must come down…and vice versa. I still make a conservative offensive advantage to Pittsburgh in the 13-19% range without respect to starting pitchers. Plus their bullpen provides around a half-run edge to FIP given current usage restrictions.
J Kaprielian (R) vs. M Keller (R)
As I ramp back into mid-season handicapping form, the approach I’m taking with the heavy favorite focuses more on the starting pitchers – though the bullpens will be anything but irrelevant. The question I asked myself this morning is whether this is a reasonable “buy low” spot on Mitch Keller. Two rough outings in a row on the Pirates’ recent West coast swing racked up 17 hits and 10 runs at San Francisco and Seattle. Both opponents have reasonable offenses despite the Mariners lagging expectations. That’s a far cry from what Oakland brings to the table.
The key takeaway is how Keller successfully transitioned through the 2022 season into 2023 as a dependable workhorse. Outside of Opening Day and an early May outing in Tampa Bay, Mitch has worked into the 6th inning in all ten other starts. That’s a huge reason why their 27-year-old ace has racked up 7 wins and is staring at a prime opportunity to grab his eighth. I think back to the good ol’ days of last season where his outs prop was consistently hung at 15.5. Those days are long gone because due to his reliability and Derek Shelton’s resultant confidence in him.
Anything But a Cakewalk
Keller’s counterpart James Kaprielian has settled down since returning to the rotation on May13th. The righty pitched well against a prolific Rangers offense but has not registered an out in the 6th inning over his last three starts. You’re seeing Kap get back to a reasonable 20.9% strikeout rate after it slumped several percent in 2022. The flip side is his general failure to keep the ball on the ground, though the long ball has not punished him too badly the past month.
In recent seasons I’d be talking about the Pirates’ small ball approach to run production, though 2023 has been a bit different. Pittsburgh has slugged right at league average and is trending in the right direction lately (L14: .444, L7: .442). Again, what goes up usually comes back down. That’s the conundrum when backing a middling offense on an upswing – the letdowns are right around the corner. Still, Keller is roughly 1.1-1.9 runs to FIP better than Kaprielian in the big picture. Whether Mitch can rebound into lockdown mode on his home turf against a subpar offense is the pivotal aspect behind my wager.
WAGER: Keller to Record Win -102 (0.51u)
ALTERNATIVE: Pirates No Bottom 9th -150
What doesn’t line up in Pittsburgh’s favor tonight? That’s the sketchy part of laying the big prices behind them. My downfall might be too much creativity in backing the big favorite here, making a half-unit to get involved the way for me to go. If you can get anything worth a damn on the Keller win prop at DraftKings, +105 is better than the -102 I settled on. I’m also leaving the door open to jam another half-unit on the No Bottom 9th prop as the day goes on. Small betting card with this game and a total elsewhere but it’s good to be back in action!
Heading for Home
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