The Breakdown is back after a 10-day bucket list trip to Peru where the streets are crazy and the terrain is epic. Those Incas really knew how to hammer some stones! Back to business after Monday’s short slate. Today’s menu presents more options and the MLB Morning Breakdown for 6-4-2024 fires off with a tough Solo Shot to pin down. BOL!
Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Guardians (CLE -115, 8.5)
Picking up where we left off before heading to South America, today’s feature centers on Progressive Field for a showdown between the AL Central’s first and second place squads. No better way to close a 4-game gap than by K.C. scoring a win in the opener, right? Considering their ace Cole Ragans will not be making a start in this series, throwing unsung rotation hero Seth Lugo in game one presents a prime opportunity for the Royals.
S Lugo (R) vs. T McKenzie (R)
Lugo has been nothing short of masterful in his second straight season as a starter. After leaving the Mets in free agency, the 34-year-old veteran joined the Padres rotation as a ground-ball control pitcher with an average depth of 5.62 innings/start. Seth has hit this season running with a 6.53 inning/start average with all but 2 of his 12 starts notching 6.0+ innings. That’s huge, considering the bullpen was anticipated to be the weak spot for this club.
Cleveland’s plus offense faces a stiff test with Lugo who continues to punch above his peripherals. As opposed to the 2023 season where his 3.57 ERA was corroborated by a 3.83 FIP and 3.76 xFIP, the first third of the 2024 campaign comes with a stingy 1.72 ERA. Granted, the 3.21 FIP/3.84 xFIP and .251 BABIP associated with it points to negative regression. But can you jump in front of this locomotive barreling down the tracks? That’s my biggest question in this handicap.
How Does Cleveland Stack Up?
Guardians hitters have been quite disciplined in the past two weeks, striking out at a second-lowest 17.0% clip while drawing walks at a 10.6% rate. Although Lugo has four games with 8+ strikeouts, tonight’s matchup should be more about his command and generating frustrating ground ball contact. All but one start has yielded 2 or fewer walks. Cleveland’s lefty-heavy lineup – especially with Steven Kwan back from the IL – has room to run against right-handed pitching. Leadoff hitter Kwan, David Fry, Josh Naylor, and Jose Ramirez offer 126 or higher wRC+ against righties to date. The counterpoint is Lugo’s lockdown .218/.275/.310 line against hitters from the left side. This is the dilemma. Are the Guardians the team to crack him with more than 2 runs for just the second time this year?
The other dilemma centers around 26-year-old Triston McKenzie, who chewed through too many pitches en route to two successive 5.0-inning starts. A .231 BABIP and meager 1.59 K/BB ratio underline the discrepancy between the kid’s 3.77 ERA and 5.58 FIP/5.01 xFIP. That’s a tough combination even if you peg him as a mid-to-upper 4.00s arm. He gets a small break with Michael Massey on the IL, however, Bobby Witt Jr., Salvador Perez, and Vinny Pasquantino are in a particularly hot phase – especially against right-handed pitching.
Late-Game Considerations
Both bullpens are generally in unrestricted states with yesterday’s day off and good management over the weekend. Although the Royals relief unit has recently been operating about a half-run better than their full-season marks, it still falls considerably short of what the Guardians bring to the table. Lugo’s expected depth of start enables manager Matt Quatraro to get straight to the John Schreiber/James McArthur back end with lefties Angel Zerpa and Will Smith able to tackle Cleveland’s tricky top half of the order stacked with quality left-handed hitters.
The Guardians bullpen boasts a top-five 1.27 ERA and 2.48 FIP headlined by a stout high-leverage group consisting of Evan Gaddis, Cade Smith, Scott Barlow, and elite closer Emmanuel Clase. Manager Stephen Vogt can tap into this resource in a close game with another other depth piece option to bridge the gap in case of another short 5-inning outing by McKenzie. That’s all well and good unless the wide gap between Lugo and McKenzie manifests this evening. There is some value on the Guardians to be unlocked – only if Seth Lugo comes back toward his mid-3.00s expectation though. And that’s a tough ask given how effective the veteran has been. It’s unfortunately a pass for me, but certainly a must watch on my TV tonight.
2024 Featured Handicap Results
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