With two days left to grind out profit before I head overseas, the MLB Morning Breakdown for 6-3-2022 delivers a Friday Solo Shot after nickel and diming my way through the week. Thankfully I was not awake to watch the Brewers score 4 runs in the bottom of the 9th and squeak out run #9 and spoil my under 8.5 wager. Not much to say about that other than time to get back on the right side and find a winner to start the weekend on the right foot.
MLB Results Since Last Post (6-2-2022)
BOSTON RED SOX @ OAKLAND ATHLETICS (+140)
N. Eovaldi (R) vs. J. Kaprielian (R)
Not to be that guy, but the Red Sox laying -160 against the Athletics seems pretty light. Then again, we are talking about a Boston club sitting 3 games below .500 traveling to the west coast. But their competition also sits on the wrong side of the .500 mark to the tune of 13 games in the red with a -44 run differential. That’s not why I’m unapologetically backing the Sox like I did Monday night – a game in which they got blasted by the Orioles 10-0. Call me a square.
We can all agree that this Boston lineup containing proven, potent hitters like Devers, Boegarts, Martinez, Story, and so on has a strong advantage over the Athletics offense. My handicap estimates an edge just above 20% given tonight’s scenario. Yet hitting against right-handed pitching is neither team’s strong side. In fact, both have been more productive against lefties by about 18%. Regardless, Boston’s season-long edge at the plate is also supported by trailing 14-day and 7-day metrics:
Trailing 14-day and 7-day Offensive Performance; BOS vs. OAK
| AVG | OBP | SLG | wRC+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS L14 | .276 | .338 | .469 | 129 |
| OAK L14 | .215 | .296 | .335 | 90 |
| BOS L7 | .301 | .363 | .527 | 152 |
| OAK L7 | .230 | .293 | .368 | 96 |
With both teams enjoying the benefits of having Thursday off – aside from Boston’s cross-country travel – full bullpens should be ready to roll once the starters exit the game. So the question needing answered is whether Nathan Eovaldi is overvalued with a -160 price tag against James Kaprielian. Eovaldi has yielded multiple runs in each of his last 5 starts, including 9 against Houston a couple weeks ago. While there is plenty to like with his season to date (45.5% ground balls, 13.0% swinging strikes), the long ball and hard contact (47.6%) have been his worst enemies. Only 2 of Eovaldi’s 10 starts have produced sub-40% hard hit rates (@ATL, @ BAL). The pros and cons of these attributes are reflected in his 5.24 FIP/3.13 xFIP and 3.14 SIERA.
On the other hand, Oakland’s James Kaprielian offers this good-hitting Boston lineup plenty of opportunities with a 5.78 FIP/4.93 xFIP and 4.48 SIERA. Kaprielian has not been immune to home runs as well, giving up 2 homers in each of his last two home starts (TEX, MIN) and 1 long ball in his last road start at Seattle where he yielded 5 runs. His 38.8% hard hit rate is better than Eovaldi’s but the 28-year-old falls considerably short in terms of K%, BB%, and GB%. In other words, the Red Sox should have plenty more opportunities to do damage at the plate – and are much more equipped to take advantage of those opportunities. Plus my testing both pitchers at a similar range around 4.00 FIP results in a Boston side with a 3% edge due to the offensive discrepancy. If Eovaldi holds a 1+ run advantage to FIP over Kaprielian, the fair price exceeds -200.
WAGER: [0.5u] Red Sox -160
WAGER: [0.5u] Red Sox RL -1.5 (+115)
ALTERNATIVE: Red Sox RL -1 (-137)
As I said before, laying the lumber with the Red Sox just a few days ago bit me big time. I’m already averse to laying too big of a price, even though -160 is not a terrible lay given the circumstances. So I’ll run back a manufactured -1 run line where I risk $130 to win $107.50 if Boston takes care of business. Aside from that dreaded 5-home run outing against the Astros, Nathan Eovaldi has kept opponents to 3 runs or less in each of his 9 other starts and generally gets into or through the 6th inning. We’ll see if Boston can hold it down in the Pacific time zone and get back my under money from last night!
Today’s MLB Betting Card:
Heading for Home
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