The MLB Morning Breakdown for 6-25-2022 gets me back in the writing game after a week away from the keyboard. What can I say…when the day job has a firm grip on your throat, you have to buckle down and TCB. Not that my betting results have been anything to write home about since returning from vacation anyways! Before I get out the door on this sunny Saturday morning, let’s fire off a handicap on a game that is oddly intriguing to me. I’ll be monitoring the market’s take on this late-window game before making a play on a matchup between unfamiliar foes. BOL today and this weekend!
DETROIT TIGERS @ ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS (-141)
A. Faedo (R) vs. Z. Davies (R)
Zach Davies is a ticking time bomb to a guy like me who values underlying/peripheral metrics. Davies has always filled the role of a contact pitcher who can frustrate hitters when his changeup is on point. Deception is key when you’re essentially a two-pitch starter – and that mix is working quite a bit better this season than in his tenure with the Cubs. Zach’s sinker has been respectable and the changeup has been resurrected. Well, kind of.
Davies presents plenty of uncertainty. Walks and home runs are that dangerous combination for pitchers who cannot consistently rely on the strikeout. Think of it like mixing bleach and ammonia with a blindfold on. Can you find the door and make it out of the room before it’s too late? That’s what did him in at San Diego this past week, though somehow the veteran was in an above-average strikeout mode going into that divisional battle. Cincinnati falling prey to 14 Ks in two games is interesting considering Detroit’s calling card as a strikeout-prone lineup (23.7%K, 6th highest in MLB). Can you expect Davies to rip off 6 Ks in 6.0 IP against a Tigers lineup on a bit of a heater?
Z. Davies (ARI) Last 5 Starts vs. Season Performance
Detroit’s 68 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers is a red flag against their prospects for offensive proliferation. Don’t ask Merrill Kelly about such struggles as Javy Baez crushed a 3-run jack off of him last night. Baez is undoubtedly in the zone this week, having ripped homers in each of the last 3 games while driving in 7 runs. Consider the mercurial shortstop the key reason why theis sleepy Tigers offense has produced the MLB’s second-highest 138 wRC+ this week via a .297/.355/.474 slash line. Plus their K rate is a next-to-lowest 18.6% primarily due to Baez not contributing his usual share to the mix.
With an offense that is firing on all the cylinders it has under the hood, why is Detroit a +130 underdog? Rookie starter Alex Faedo is a big reason why. Despite the 26-year-old commencing his MLB career with seven straight starts of 5+ IP while yielding 2 runs or less, Faedo’s hot start hit a wall against the White Sox and in Boston last time out. He failed to make it through the 5th inning in both outings and gave up a whopping 12 runs on 17 hits. This has a similar parallel to Reds rookie Graham Ashcraft, who stung me against Milwaukee last weekend then rebounded for a stellar start in San Francisco last night. Do teams have Faedo figured out? Or did the rookie simply hit a bump in the road?
Not Struggling Alone
Arizona’s recent struggles at the plate (69 wRC+ L14 days, 50 wRC+ L7 days) are the yin to Detroit’s yang. There’s plenty of uncertainty with these two pitchers, but are these lineups in a position to take advantage of their weaknesses? Better question: are both of these offenses going to go off tonight? Their defenses help the cause of the under as plus units – oddly so without Ketel Marte playing the field right now. Neither bullpen has had to lean on their back end arms too much recently, though the Tigers casually rolled through their better relievers on the way to Friday night’s 5-1 victory. Not that Soto, Chafin, Fulmer, and Lange won’t be available in this one. Yet it is the Diamondbacks relief unit’s recent struggles that give some credence to the dog tonight.
Bullpen Performance (FIP, by Period)
| Season | L14 Days | L7 Days | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 3.27 | 2.94 | 1.98 |
| ARI | 4.27 | 3.79 | 4.72 |
CONSIDERATION: Under 9 Runs (pending market availability)
Considering how there are so many forces tugging at each other in this one, I may hold out for a reasonably-priced Under 9 to appear. I make this in the 7.5-8 range so there are options if my conviction holds firm over the next couple hours. There was an Under 9 -118 earlier this morning but that went to 8.5 with the rest of the market. You can almost see the desire for over money to keep rolling in, so I’ll keep my eyes out for a reasonable 9 somewhere or better plus money on the 8.5.
Heading for Home
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