The grind rolls on as summertime settled in abruptly last week. Fortunately, many of us – including the MLB’s finest – catch a break from the steamy hot weather that has gripped most of the USA. Conditions are great for baseball tonight, so let’s jump right into the new week with a Solo Shot feature in the MLB Morning Breakdown for 6-24-2024. BOL!
Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles (BAL -120, 8.5)
Both of these American League pennant contenders have frequently popped up on the Morning Breakdown for good reason. At 49-26 and 49-28, respectively, the Guardians and Orioles have bullied their way through the competition as the season nears the halfway point. Neither team treated me especially well yesterday – although the decision making that led me to back the under in Cleveland and the O’s as a +112 dog has more to blame than anything. Baltimore’s “value trap” and Triston McKenzie’s command struggles led to a disappointing finish to a choppy week. The MLB season is plowing into the dog days and if I’m not prepared to grind then there’s nothing I’ve learned over 15 seasons of doing this!
To call this a huge inter-division series is an understatement, especially for Baltimore. After taking two of three from AL East leader New York, they ran into an Astros club that is gradually picking themselves up off the mat. One of the league’s hottest offenses hit choppy waters against Ronel Blanco and Framber Valdez over the weekend. No shame there. Tanner Bibee and the Guardians bullpen will have their hands full this evening at a milder Orioles Park where conditions should generally be neutral. However, the trouble with the relief unit (MLB best 2.33 ERA, 2.81 FIP/3.30 xFIP) is availability. Late inning stalwarts Emmanuel Clase and Cade Smith worked three of the last four days, leaving Hunter Gaddis and Scott Barlow as manager Steven Vogt’s likely go-to arms in a close one late. Baltimore’s stout back end is unencumbered, bringing these two groups closer to one another.
BAL Offense, by Period/Split
| BB% | K% | BABIP | Slash Line | wRC+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 7.1% | 21.3% | .284 | .254/.314/.458 | 120 |
| L14 Days | 6.7% | 21.5% | .314 | .278/.334/.489 | 134 |
| L7 Days | 7.3% | 17.4% | .333 | .306/.367/.541 | 158 |
| vs. RHP | 7.1% | 20.5% | .276 | .252/.311/.461 | 119 |
| MLB (Season) | 8.3% | 22.4% | .287 | .240/.311/.309 | 100 |
Devaluing the Orioles’ recent surge is fair. But with such a strong baseline provided by their stacked lineup, I still have them as the third most potent overall and against right-handed pitching. Cleveland’s overall offensive trend has also risen with the temperatures in June. Coincidence or not, these guys have held their own despite having a less complete lineup than the O’s.
CLE Offense, by Period/Split
| BB% | K% | BABIP | Slash Line | wRC+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 8.2% | 18.3% | .268 | .240/.315/.401 | 106 |
| L14 Days | 7.1% | 16.7% | .294 | .270/.335/.449 | 125 |
| L7 Days | 8.6% | 17.6% | .286 | .273/.348/.505 | 145 |
| vs. LHP | 8.8% | 21.8% | .301 | .254/.333/.424 | 117 |
| MLB (Season) | 8.3% | 22.4% | .287 | .240/.311/.309 | 100 |
T Bibee (R) vs. C Povich (L)
The level of competition in the AL Central arguably yields to the East, however, the Guardians have earned their spot at the top in spite of having one of the least effective rotations – in the absence of Shane Bieber, of course. Fortunately, Tanner Bibee has risen from an impressive MLB-ready prospect in 2023 to their most productive starter in 2024. That’s not to say he’s been immune to getting roughed up along the way. But the 25-year-old has hit double-digit Ks in his last two outings and has some wind in his sails.
It seems like an obvious statement that the second-year starter’s fate comes down to avoiding the long ball this evening. That’s clearly a tall task against the O’s deep offering of potent bats that holds the distinction of a league-leading 125 homers. Tanner has yielded more than 3 runs without a home run just once in his 15 starts. At 5.42 innings/start, length of outing is another concern with a handcuffed bullpen. Vogt needs him to comfortably work into the 6th to keep this one manageable. Sounds like an easier said than done situation, if you ask me. I still grade him in a mid-to-high 3.00s range primarily due to a season-long 4.71 K/BB ratio than has flourished to 8.50 across the last 6 starts.
Next Man Up
Kyle Bradish, John Means, Tyler Wells, and Dean Kremer. All four of these Baltimore starting pitchers are on the shelf with the first three done for the season. This has pushed yesterday’s starter Albert Suarez into a larger rotation role while also leading to tonight’s starter, Cade Povich’s MLB debut back on June 6th. Once he got past a tough introduction in Toronto (5.1 IP, 5H, 6R), 6 innings of shutout ball against Atlanta and a decent 1-run start at the Yankees leave the 24-year-old lefty in an interesting spot tonight.
Put the run scoring – or lack thereof – against Cade Povich to the side for a minute. 6 Ks and no walks against Atlanta. Maybe that was a product of the Braves’ slump at that time. Povich produced a combined 3 strikeouts and 9 walks in his starts against the Jays and Yankees, skating by with a sub-.200 BABIP. To say that anything goes with him on the bump tonight is less of a cop out and more reality when it comes to my money. He’s a low-4.00s guy in the big picture but we’re dealing with the short run at this point. Both my number and total on this game straddle the market prices. Cade’s small body of work and the Cleveland bullpen scenario leave me on the sidelines for the series opener, though you better believe I’ll be tuned in to this clash.
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