Last week’s puff piece about the Cincinnati Reds’ heater was ironically hung out to dry via a failed team total bid. Never fear though, their bats revved back up to close out the weekend series in Houston strong and keep the funds rolling in the right direction. I would apologize for being M.I.A. this week due to a brutal work schedule, but the way these featured handicaps are going I should apologize for showing up this morning. A rough betting weekend gave way to a brief rest before some decent fortune the last couple days. That can only mean one thing: another dumpster fire with the MLB Morning Breakdown for 6-23-2023, right?
2023 Featured Handicap Results
BOSTON RED SOX @ CHICAGO WHITE SOX (BOS -115, 8.5)
Two of my season win total positions go toe-to-toe with one another on the South Side as the Red Sox (over 76.5 wins) face the White Sox (under 86.5 wins). Hopefully I get some help in inching closer to cashing these futures bets but when it comes to this particular game, my bias may shine through in this handicap. Ironically, it is the White Sox’ struggles against right-handed pitching that has been the most out of whack compared to my expected figures. Boston’s calling card as an offense-first club has been relatively consistent throughout the season and was especially noticeable this past week against the Twins and Yankees.
B Bello (R) vs. L Giolito (R)
One key question that we could see answered tonight is whether Chicago is primed to snap out of their recent offensive struggles (L14 days: 84 wRC+; L7 days: 77 wRC+). Tim Anderson’s failure to launch – and recent shoulder issues – has certainly not helped the cause. Now the lack of plate discipline and power handcuffing the White Sox lineup runs into the teeth of ground ball pitcher Brayan Bello. Hard contact has punished the 24-year-old righty at times but curbing the long ball has paid dividends over his last four starts. Bello will put the ball in play, essentially giving Chicago ample opportunity to right the ship and snap out of their woes.
Opportunities are one thing. Execution is another. The fact that Brayan has gone 6 innings or more in four of his last five starts bodes well for the Red Sox. Their bullpen is fine overall, but the back end has decent oomph with Chris Martin and Kenley Jansen. Another deep outing from the kid tips the scales nicely towards Boston. An efficient Bello is a good Bello as far as I am concerned. Andrew Benintendi and Gavin Sheets are the catalysts that Pedro Grifol needs to have activated if his club is going to cut Bello’s night short.
Back in the Saddle
Although the Red Sox lineup comes into this series nice and hot, Lucas Giolito will have something to say about throwing some cold water on the flames. Gio’s unfortunate 2022 season has given way to a 2023 that has been more typical of years prior. His 3.54 ERA mirrors the mid-3.00s years of 2019-2021, however, look to the 4.28 FIP/4.45 xFIP and 4.14 SIERA for more modest benchmarks. That’s due primarily to a 24.5% strikeout rate and 11.7% swinging strike rate that are as low as they’ve been since 2018. Plug in a Boston lineup that is one of the more disciplined groups out there and Lucas figures to have an uphill climb tonight. Plus the lefty-heavy lineup that the Red Sox brings to town could be trouble. Gio yields an extra 33 points of slugging and 1.7 runs to FIP against lefty hitters compared to righties.
No usage restrictions with the bullpens after a day of rest, so what you see is what you get at this point in the season. This is a very reasonable price for Boston in this situation with a healthy lineup and a starting pitcher anywhere from a 1/4 – 1/2 run better than his counterpart. All of the nickels and dimes add up to a firm edge and make the Red Sox a solid position on my Friday betting card.
WAGER: Red Sox -115 (0.85u)
NEW YORK METS @ PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
K Senga (R) vs. T Walker (R)
The highs and lows of the Phillies offense went on full display yesterday afternoon at a breezy Citizens Bank Park. Tonight, the Phils welcome in another division rival in the Mets for a weekend series that could help one of these clubs salvage a tough first half of the season. The Mets’ offensive heater in Houston runs into one of the hottest starting pitchers in the league, former Met Taijuan Walker. Sure, the whole gamut of broad-based metrics – ERA, FIP, xFIP, SIERA – are aligned in the mid-4.00s. But the 30-year-old vet has yielded just a single run over his last three starts. He could be a tough nut to crack in this one.
Turn the page to MLB rookie Kodai Senga and his 3.53 ERA and 4.24 FIP/3.95 xFIP. His successes and struggles continue to ebb and flow throughout the season, so picking a spot to back or fade the NPB import can be a lot like playing Plinko. Senga has been slightly worse on the road across the board but nothing excessive when anchored to his expected stats. The key consideration for tonight’s showdown comes down to a Mets lineup that is currently thriving (L7 days: .256/.343/.442, 121 wRC+) against a scorching hot starter. Just as important is the matchup between the slumping Phillies offense (L7 days: .231/.269/.340, 60 wRC+) and the up-and-down Kodai Senga.
Shake Things Up With Volatility
Look at where these two offenses are over the last couple weeks and parity comes into view. Neither bullpen is in great form, so volatility in the late innings could be on the menu. This is a dog position that I’m willing to back considering that Taijuan Walker is arguably in a sell low position and Senga’s variance makes it worth backing him on the first 5 inning line at a plus price. The Philadelphia offense is on the cusp of waking out of their slumber, so I will not be surprised if they take advantage of an erratic Kodai – even if they’ve been anything but disciplined at the plate lately.
WAGER: Mets First 5 Innings +112 (0.25u)
WAGER: Mets +100 (0.5u)
Heading for Home
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