I must admit that I was sound asleep for last night’s Phillies/Giants matchup and have yet to watch the condensed game replay. However, waking up to see San Francisco’s Goldilocks approach to their team total suits me just fine. They hit their 5 run mark in the 5th inning and coasted to the finish for a 5-3 win. No complaints here as we snag a little plus money and jump right into the MLB Morning Breakdown for 6-19-2021.
2021 Featured Handicap Results
Another day, another solo shot for our betting card. There are several close calls on my handicapping worksheet early on Saturday morning but only one commitment. Miami is a potential position if they open on the first 5 inning line as a small dog or even money. Both the Marlins and the Cubs are slumping at the plate – well, Miami was slumping until they blew up Chicago for 10 runs Friday evening. It’s something to consider today anyhow…
Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles (+150)
Baltimore’s 7-1 triumph last night over the visiting Toronto Blue Jays was expected in a way, yet surprising in others. Their 6 hits and 2 runs against starter Robbie Ray makes sense for a team who has been nearly 40% stronger against left-handed pitchers than against righties. Then they shelled the Toronto bullpen for 5 more runs – again, not a huge shock considering that this relief unit hit a really rough stretch this past week (4.69 FIP).
The Blue Jays’ ability to muster only 4 hits against Thomas Eshelman in his 2021 debut is the real head scratcher. Their offense had been on a heater, slashing .284/.341/.567 with a 144 wRC+ in the trailing seven-day period leading up to this series. Plus they’ve been decent on the road with a .252/.314/.427 slash line and 104 wRC+. But Toronto had to shuffle their lineup with Teoscar Hernandez and his big bat hitting the paternity list on Thursday. Today is the last day that Hernandez is eligible for leave, so I expect him to be out for this game as well. Another aspect to consider is that manager Charlie Montoyo may need to rest a key cog or two on their eleventh straight day of action.
A. Manoah (R) vs. D. Kremer (R)
Today’s starting pitching matchup is what truly piqued my interest. Is the 23-year-old sensation Alex Manoah the man to keep Toronto alive in game two of this series? Well, for a relatively-unknown young arm the early results are quite positive. He was very good in three of his four starts in his rookie season. The lone dud of an outing came at home against Miami, otherwise Manoah’s 0-run MLB debut at the Yankees was spectacular. After taking his lumps against the Marlins, Alex quieted the White Sox’ prolific bats with a 2-run effort before shutting down the Red Sox Monday night.
At the root of it all, I have to grade Alex Manoah as a mid-4.00s FIP starter regardless of his very impressive start. His 3.54 BB/9 ratio is concerning, especially with a 1.33 HR/9 rate. But all three home runs came in that rough outing against Miami. It’s the high walk rate that troubles me the most as the .189 batting average against helps to mitigate free passes if he keeps the ball in the park. However, this suppressed average will not last for long as teams catch on to his limited three-pitch repertoire. Manoah’s 39.6% ground ball rate and 34.0% hard hit rate do not raise any red flags to me – so I will give him the benefit of the doubt and shade him around 4.25 FIP against an Orioles team that has slashed just .220/.289/.367 against righties.
Welcoming Kremer Back
Baltimore’s Dean Kremer made his return to the big-league club after John Means was put on the IL earlier this month. Kremer was demoted after running up a six-game streak in which he gave up at least 1 home run in each game. Fortunately, Dean snapped it in his return last week in Cleveland. Unfortunately, he still gave up 4 runs (3 earned) on 4 hits in the losing effort. The interesting part about that start is how he generated a strong 58.8% ground ball rate after struggling with this in nearly all of his previous starts this season (32.1%).
Can Kremer keep the ball on the ground in hitter-friendly Oriole Park with a light wind blowing out? If he struggles with walks – which he gave out none last week – and lets these Blue Jays hitters get the ball up, it could be a rough afternoon. A 2.44 K/BB ratio does not help his cause either. Plus none of the 25-year-old’s four-pitch arsenal has graded out as positive pitches this season. Did his recent stint at AAA Norfolk do him good? Possibly, though I have a tough time thinking that Kremer dramatically changed his stripes down there – even if he was sharp in those two minor league starts.
Adjustments Are Necessary
Dean may catch a break with Teoscar likely out again today and at least one member of the Jays’ dangerous young core on the bench. But I still give the Blue Jays about a 20% edge at the plate given these constraints – primarily due to the Orioles’ overall struggles against right-handed pitching. Baltimore has hit well in their own park though (110 wRC+), so Alex Manoah will need another excellent 1- or 2-run outing while eating 5-6 innings. Leave both of these highly-volatile bullpens out of the equation and focus on the lineups against these diverging young starters. Have I placed too great of an emphasis on Manoah’s good start to the season? Perhaps, though I expect the Jays to find enough success against Kremer to hold a lead after the 5th inning.
WAGER: Blue Jays First 5 Innings -1/2 -125 (1/2 unit)
WAGER: Blue Jays First 5 Innings -1 +105 (1/2 unit)
Just like last night, I’m getting a little greedy with a mini-ladder play. It cuts my exposure down to 1.125 units and gives me a small plus-money potential payout. Yeah, I know – the upfront juice or the small positive yield may not matter to a lot of you, but these incremental scraps add up over the long haul. At least that has been my experience over the years. That said, not all books carry multiple options for first 5 innings bets. So laying the hook at a price up to -130 is still a good approach with the Jays against Dean Kremer this afternoon.
Around the Horn
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