The MLB Morning Breakdown for 6-18-2022 drops with a pair of handicaps on this windy Saturday morning. Despite staying ahead of the market since my last post on June 14th, I gave some back to the gambling gods this week after returning from vacation (holy LOB, Boston!). Not to be discouraged, I broke down my results to date and found my dip back into totals has been a success to the tune of over 40% ROI. Now that level of performance is not going to carry through the summer yet I chose to bump up totals wagers from a half-unit level to three-quarters. As much as I hate leaving money on the table I really despise overreacting and paying the price.
MLB Results Since Last Post (6-14-2022)
MILWAUKEE BREWERS @ CINCINNATI REDS (-110)
J. Alexander (R) vs. G. Ashcraft (R)
What’s a great way to whittle down my ROI below 15% for the season? Back the Cincinnati Reds. Spoiler alert – just like I did in Arizona on Wednesday, at least I have the common sense to leave the bullpen out of the equation. To be fair, both teams’ relief units are operating in a 5+ FIP range the past couple weeks. That level of volatility backs me into a first 5 inning corner and places a lot of emphasis on framing today’s starting pitchers. Especially against a pair of offenses in decent form coming into the middle game of the weekend series.
Recent Offensive Production, MIL & CIN
| AVG | OBP | SLG | wRC+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL L14 Days | .235 | .296 | .368 | 86 |
| CIN L14 Days | .281 | .345 | .440 | 115 |
| MIL L7 Days | .254 | .314 | .424 | 105 |
| CIN L7 Days | .273 | .333 | .426 | 108 |
| MIL Away | .230 | .301 | .385 | 93 |
| CIN Home | .267 | .346 | .450 | 114 |
Although the Brewers have produced about a 15% premium against right-handed pitchers this season when compared to the Reds, current form squeezes these lineups closer to parity. Plus Cincinnati has been greedy at Great American Ballpark. Milwaukee will garner the same benefits of the Reds’ home turf but much respect goes to Cincy’s 114 wRC+ here. Today’s weather is close to neutral at upper 70s temps and a cross wind around 9 mph. Add that to a hitter-friendly park factor and the over 9 looks rather appetizing. I may get there too by the time 4:00 rolls around.
Rookie Madness
Milwuakee’s rookie right-hander Jason Alexander (turns out he’s not related to George Costanza, BTW) has avoided trouble in the first three major league starts of his career. The formula: get tons of ground balls (58.6%) and avoid hard contact. Considering that Alexander has yielded more walks than strikeouts and 7 hits in each start, it should be no surprise that the 29-year-old’s 2.16 ERA warrants skepticism. Jason holds a 3.86 FIP/5.25 xFIP and 5.61 SIERA, pointing toward the other shoe dropping at some point. Is today the day? Clearly I expect him to start making his way into the mid-to-upper 4.00s in the Queen City this afternoon.
That’s not to say that 24-year-old Graham Ashcraft’s 2.22 ERA isn’t overstated as well. His underlying numbers point toward inflation, just not as severe (3.63 FIP/3.79 xFIP, 3.95 SIERA). With a couple more starts under the belt, Ashcraft presents slightly better command as a contact pitcher achieving a healthy 58.5% ground ball rate. His 8.5% swinging strike rate is about double that of Alexander’s, though still far from impressive. What I truly appreciate is Graham issuing just 1 walk across his last three starts.
Who Reverses the Trend?
There’s quite a bit we still have to learn from today’s rookie starters. I make Ashcraft somewhere between 1/2 and 3/4 of a run to FIP better than his counterpart primarily due to working within the strike zone and keeping the ball on the ground. Until his last start at St. Louis he had not given up more than 4 hits in a start. Teams have a better read on him than they did a month ago, but the Cardinals lineup has been firing on all cylinders and Nolan Arenado’s 3-run homer in the 3rd inning that day was the death blow to Ashcraft’s nice run to start his MLB career.
Despite losing Tyler Stephenson and Jonathan India having yet to find his groove after returning from the IL, Cincinnati’s lineup is in as good of form as they’ve been in all season. Not to say that the Brewers aren’t capable of punishing the rookie with a solid lineup of their own. And it’s beyond time that someone besides Wily Adames or Andrew McCutcheon steps up and leads Milwaukee’s up-and-down offense to the same success that the Cardinals did last week against Graham Ashcraft. I don’t think I’m being a homer here but give me Ashcraft > Alexander in the battle of rookie starters on the first 5 inning line.
WAGER: Reds First 5 Innings -110
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS @ PITTSBURGH PIRATES (+156)
A. Wood (L) vs. J. Quintana (L)
In full disclosure, this under position makes me uncomfortable. Of course, when doesn’t an MLB under make me uncomfortable? But my life would be incomplete without sweating unders – and this one is no different. Especially with a stiff wind blowing out and temps near 70 degrees in the Steel City. That garners about a 3% bias towards scoring that does not go unnoticed. The counterpoint to these atmospheric conditions are the offenses’ sluggish current form. With a pair of lefties on the mound this afternoon we should see Gabe Kapler’s Ruf-Flores-Slater lineup against veteran Jose Quintana. Regardless, both clubs have produced uniformly against both lefties and righties this season. So no major adjustments needed in that department.
wRC+ by Period, SFG & PIT
| Season | L14 Days | L7 Days | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SFG | 106 | 86 | 90 |
| PIT | 81 | 57 | 52 |
Will Pitchers Rule the Roost?
I’ve always had this odd respect for Jose Quintana as a durable starter who has grinded his entire career without producing any truly remarkable statistics or achieving major milestones. He’s a low-4.00s FIP contact pitcher who has been able to maintain a solid 11%+ swinging strike rate from last season while dropping his hard hit rate below 40% so far in 2022. Anyone, including myself, has to be concerned with the 4 runs Jose gave up to the Tigers a couple weeks ago. The 4 runs in Atlanta last time out is less of a concern considering the heater that team was on at the time.
His counterpart Alex Wood is showing signs of what the Dodgers saw in the 31-year-old several years ago. Wood’s umbrella metrics paint a similar picture (3.12 FIP/3.03 xFIP, 3.36 SIERA) and the 51.4% ground ball rate is a major asset with the windy conditions this afternoon. You see these numbers manifested across his last four starts in which he’s made it into the 6th or 7th innings with 3 runs or fewer. Those good outings came against similar competition (KCR, COL, @MIA, @CIN), if not better than Pittsburgh.
Both bullpens are in very good form in the low-3.00s FIP range over the last couple weeks. There are no significant availability issues with either unit, leading me into a 7.5-8 run range for today’s game. The margin for error is super tight against the market’s 8.5 but having the hook means a lot given my projections. It’s time to get sweaty with a pair of contact pitchers and wind blowing out to the Allegheny River. Gotta love it…BOL!
WAGER: [0.75u] Under 8.5 Runs (-110)
Today’s MLB Betting Card:
Heading for Home
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