A sketchy 6th inning in Oakland made things interesting yesterday afternoon to say the least. But that goes with the territory with full game unders…and I wouldn’t have it any other way. Let’s switch gears today to a pair of team totals in a late MLB Morning Breakdown for 6-16-2023. I had a little extra time this morning to write after finishing the daily handicapping, so why not spend it pushing out a puff piece on my Cincinnati Reds?
2023 Featured Handicap Results
CINCINNATI REDS @ HOUSTON ASTROS (HOU -190, 9)
The phenomenon that is the Cincinnati Redlegs – or Deadlegs as my old boss used to say – grows by the week. Fresh off a sweep in Kansas City on the heels of series victories in Saint Louis and against the Dodgers, the hype could actually be real in the Queen City. The last week or so has put a tear in the eye of this old suffering Reds fan. It’s also put a few bucks in a fair amount of people’s pockets too. But the context of their road trip is changing in a hurry. Missouri’s struggling clubs can’t hold a candle to the 39-30 Houston Astros.
Cincinnati’s youth movement is paying short-term dividends. The organization’s top three prospects are all on the active roster and have gone full Voltron with clubhouse leaders Jonathan India and Tyler Stephenson. Spencer Steer has settled in nicely as the team’s regular first baseman, allowing Stephenson to grind the DH/catcher role on a daily basis. But the splash story highlights infielders Elly De La Cruz and Matt McLain. And it is far from a secret. Their emergence has not only provided the team a much-needed spark, it has allowed manager David Bell to put marginal players Kevin Newman and Jose Barrero in the back seat.
CIN Offense, Selected Periods
| Slash Line | wRC+ | BB% | K% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | .254/.331/.395 | 92 | 9.3% | 23.3% |
| Before 5/15 | .244/.320/.375 | 84 | 8.7% | 24.9% |
| Since 5/15 | .267/.344/.421 | 103 | 10.0% | 21.3% |
| Since 6/6 | .266/.336/.432 | 102 | 8.9% | 19.5% |
21-year-old phenom Elly De La Cruz took the league by storm ten days ago and instantly delivered with a combination of power and speed. Ironically, his debut may have overshadowed arguably the biggest catalyst of this offense, middle infielder Matt McLain. Cincinnati’s 2021 1st round draft pick has been nothing short of sensational since breaking through on May 15th. Granted, that massive .446 BABIP is a nod to less fruitful weeks ahead. But in the meantime, Cincy has bumped up offensive production about 20% since McLain joined the club. What could be a legitimate rising tide has pulled Spencer Steer up to new heights (143 wRC+ since May 15th) much like Jonathan India and Stuart Fairchild. To think that the Reds actually have a top-half slugging lineup over the past month is exciting. But the handicapper in me holds enough skepticism. The other shoe is going to drop soon, right?
A Abbott (L) vs. JP France (R)
The legend in the making that is Andrew Abbott rolls his 0.00 ERA right into the teeth of an awoken Houston Astros lineup – sans Yordan Alvarez, mind you. To be frank, I’m not interested in taking a position on a side, game total, or the Astros total. A pure rookie like Abbott with a .200 BABIP and 3.37 FIP/5.27 xFIP in 11.2 innings creates a dice roll scenario as to how his third career MLB start will play out. Obviously, I personally hope he keeps it going and leads the Reds to another victory.
Isolating the Reds offense against another MLB rookie, JP France, makes more sense in my mind. But only if the price is right. The 28-year-old righty’s 3.54 ERA, 4.98 FIP/4.42 xFIP, and 4.54 SIERA over 40.2 innings in 7 starts paints a more well-rounded picture than Abbott. Tie those figures into mid-to-upper 4.00s projections and we actually have numbers to work with. JP’s 2.33 K/BB ratio is respectable but unremarkable. High ground ball rate (46.7%) coupled with a meaty 16.3% HR/FB rate presents opportunity, to say the least.
But Wait, There’s More…
Houston’s bullpen situation lends itself to run production too. Surprisingly tough battles against the Nationals to wrap up that series led to nearly 40 pitches from both closer Ryan Pressly and setup man Hector Neris. So Bryan Abreu figures to be the key high-leverage arm available to Dusty Baker when the final innings roll around. This supports the notion of a middling ‘Stros relief unit in recent weeks that could use nothing less than 6+ innings from JP France.
WAGER: Reds Team Total Over 3.5 -110 (0.7u)
Is a fairly-priced 3.5 too good to be true? Perhaps, but I’ll continue to (cautiously) buy this souped up Cincinnati Reds lineup. There’s plenty of regression in store for Matt McLain and Elly De La Cruz – the latter is feeling those effects in a recent 0-8 slump – though my numbers support a floor around 3.9 runs with decent upside on this 3.5 total. It’s all good until the bucket of cold water gets thrown on the party. Until then, let’s dance!
LOS ANGELES ANGELS @ KANSAS CITY ROYALS (LAA -150, 9.5)
Much less sexy – if you’re willing to call the Cincinnati Reds that – is the offense of the least winningest team in the MLB. Kansas City’s nine-game losing streak goes toe-to-toe with the red hot Los Angeles Angels in a weekend series at The K. Many fans and handicappers – including myself – have lost a ton of confidence in K.C.’s Brady Singer this year. His progression from the 2021 to 2022 seasons led to cautious optimism for the sinker/slider righty as the Royals’ ace of the future. Granted, I had reasonable hopes for sinker baller Brad Keller a few seasons ago too. But I digress.
P Sandoval (L) vs. B Singer (R)
The case for the Royals side is a tough one. My raw handicapping points toward the +135 dog having value, in part due to the broad variance in Singer’s profile. And with an Angels club cruising along nicely at the plate that equation becomes a little less appealing. So I look towards the totals on this game. Game total of 9.5 pencils out about right. Likewise, the Angels team total at over 5 -120 seems to split the difference of the Singer variance spectrum. But I keep coming back to this Royals club against the left-handed Patrick Sandoval.
Don’t get me wrong, K.C. has not been automatic by any means in similar situations. Just look at Saturday’s game against Cole Irvin in Baltimore. That one tripped me up. In the big picture, however, the Royals have been respectable against southpaws. Like the majority of MLB clubs, their handedness splits favor this scenario. This young lineup boasts quietly decent young talent with the ugly downside of high strikeout rates.
Selected KCR Hitters vs. LHP
| PA | BB% | K% | OPS | wRC+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B Witt Jr. | 72 | 2.8% | 15.3% | .885 | 139 |
| M Garcia | 45 | 2.2% | 17.8% | .856 | 131 |
| M Duffy | 45 | 11.1% | 20.0% | .828 | 130 |
| N Pratto | 52 | 7.7% | 34.6% | .848 | 129 |
| MJ Melendez | 75 | 6.7% | 32.0% | .746 | 102 |
| E Olivares | 67 | 6.0% | 16.4% | .756 | 101 |
These boys are anything but patient regardless of what arm the pitcher is throwing with. And that’s not necessarily a bad thing against a guy like Patrick Sandoval. His whiffs continue to slide this season. The hallmark slider has not lived up to the expectation set last year. And although his success has come via the ground ball, avoiding hard contact is a struggle a little too often. Case in point: six of Patrick’s last nine starts produced a 4.75+ xFIP. Simply said, Sandoval leaves the door wide open for this Royals lineup if they limit strikeouts to 4 or fewer. Putting the ball in play against the 26-year-old is the obvious key to grinding out runs. Patience is not a virtue for K.C. tonight.
WAGER: Royals Team Total Over 4 -105 (0.75u)
ALTERNATIVE: Royals First 5 Innings Team Total Over 1.5 -140
The brutal reality is that K.C.’s offense has eclipsed the 4-run mark only once this month despite stalling out on that number in all three games against the Reds this week. The first five innings total at 1.5 has been the going rate for the Royals against lefties for much of the season but the juice continues to ratchet up on them. Plus the Angels bullpen has interesting advanced metrics that beg for punishment. 2.03 ERA and 5.03 FIP/5.36 xFIP over the trailing 14-day period; 2.28 ERA and 5.34 FIP/6.00 xFIP over the trailing 7-day period certainly says something! Can the Royals capitalize? We’ll find out tonight. BOL this weekend!
Heading for Home
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