I won’t say the L train has been derailed but at least the Giants slowed the thing down a bit. San Francisco’s smooth sailing over their team total Tuesday night helps the featured handicaps a touch as we roll into another solo shot in the MLB Morning Breakdown for 6-15-2023. BOL with today’s short slate in the MLB!
2023 Featured Handicap Results
TAMPA BAY RAYS @ OAKLAND ATHLETICS (TBR -190, 9)
Tampa Bay’s trip to the San Francisco Bay has not been as successful as the league’s winningest club wanted it to be. A pair of losses to start the four-game set with Oakland was reversed by a convincing 6-3 win last night. The heavy price on the favorite is fair given the wide talent gap between these two teams, although I am personally not a fan of their valuation in today’s scenario. On the flip side, my win percentage range is awfully wide to have much confidence in taking the +175 dog – though that would be the side I played if handcuffed and forced to go there.
The Rays find themselves in a two-week offensive downtrend around -30%. That is consistent with the last week as well, tipping the scales back towards more modest expectations. Outside of platoon hitters Manuel Margot and Harold Ramirez – both raking against lefties – the bottom half of the Tampa Bay lineup has cooled off significantly in this stretch. Plus the pace of money hitters Yandy Diaz, Wander Franco, Josh Lowe, and Randy Arozarena has slowed a touch. Given how the Rays haven’t had a day off since June 1st and won’t get another one until they leave San Diego on Sunday, I would not be surprised to see Diaz, Arozarena, or their hottest hitter Isaac Paredes get a breather this afternoon.
Similarly, the Athletics’ offensive outburst in Pittsburgh was short-lived. 9 runs in three games against Tampa is far from hateful for this lineup but is indicative of their return back toward modest expectations. The A’s also have a handful of key players who have not rested during this six-game stretch: Esteury Ruiz, Ryan Noda, and Seth Brown. Both offenses’ textures at this point tend towards an under position, but does the pitching situation agree?
T Bradley (R) vs. P Blackburn (R)
Tampa Bay’s top pitching prospect Taj Bradley has hit the ground running this season. In eight starts, Bradley nailed down 5+ innings of work six times. Exceptions came against Toronto and, last time out, Texas. So I’m on the conservative end of today’s outing when it comes to how deep the 22-year-old righty will go. Fortunately, the Rays have quality middle inning arms like Shawn Armstrong and Kevin Kelly available along with closer Jason Adam. Taj’s 4.19 ERA is a bit misleading in terms of a corresponding 2.94 FIP/3.11 xFIP and 3.22 SIERA. However, 7 walks in his last two starts against Boston and Texas fly in the face of those more favorable metrics. That keeps my expected range for him conservatively centered around the 4.00 mark.
Counterpart Paul Blackburn sits about a half-run better than last night’s starter Luis Medina, who coughed up 4 runs in a failed bid to last through the 5th inning. The low-4.00s expectation set by Blackburn’s first full season in the Oakland rotation frames the good end of the 29-year-old’s 2023 range. Mixed results across the first three starts of his season after recovering from a Spring Training injury support a low-to-mid 4.00s figure, as do the 4.32 xFIP and 4.36 SIERA. Plus if there’s any time to have some semblance of confidence in the A’s bullpen, now might be the time. Just don’t confuse some confidence with overconfidence.
WAGER: Under 9 -115 (0.65u)
After everything gets thrown in the blender, I make this total in the high-7.0s to mid-8.0s. A case for the under also benefits from the potential rest days for guys like Paredes, Arozarena, Ruiz, and Noda. Even though I feel back up to speed with league dynamics after returning from vacation, the margin of safety with this total isn’t as juicy as I prefer to lay a full unit behind. There’s a ton of push potential too. Still, there’s enough meat on the bone to move with conviction and take the position. BOL.
Heading for Home
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