As great as vacation can be – which last week’s trip to the Azores certainly was – there’s no place like home. Especially when you’ve spent a week in a nation that blocks access to gambling websites! The things we do to get away, right? Despite being sleep deprived and feeling like a truck hit me, it’s time to fire up a Solo Shot in the MLB Morning Breakdown for 6-13-2022 while it’s actually still the morning here in the east. First, some housekeeping since my last post way back on June 3rd via Betstamp:
MLB Results Since Last Post (6-3-2022)
MIAMI MARLINS @ PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (-130)
S. Alcantara (R) vs. A. Nola (R)
Is any division humming as smoothly as the NL East these days? The AL East might have something to say about that, otherwise, you have a Mets squad that held its own out west while the Braves, Phillies, and Marlins picked up the pace in a major way. Now two divisional series kick off tonight, one of which called out to me strongly.
Maybe it’s my bias towards Miami’s standout starter Sandy Alcantara. Plus I have a ton of respect for his counterpart, Phillies’ ace/co-ace Aaron Nola. What’s not to like with these two? They deliver plenty of ground balls and avoid an excess of hard contact – two things I greatly appreciate in pitchers. Nola’s recent stumbles against the Giants and Dodgers do not go unnoticed, especially the 3 home runs yielded in those two games that resulted in 9 runs against him. Tonight he faces a Miami lineup that boasts the MLB’s fifth best 115 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. But will they thrive against Nola as more of a dink-and-dunk offense of late (last 7 days: .176 ISO; last 14 days: .166 ISO)?
At this point, we all know what Sandy brings to the table. Innings, innings, and more innings. The guy posted six straight starts of 7+ innings and coughed up more than 1 run just once in that stretch. The counterpunch to Alcantara’s strength is a Phillies offense that has been brutalizing pitchers lately (last 14 days: .264/.336/.505, 132 wRC+). Historical matchups versus Philly’s key cogs look great for the hitters though I am willing to argue that Sandy’s game is in peak form, watering down those prior seasons’ numbers a bit.
Tonight’s Starters – Last 5 Outings
| IP | FIP | xFIP | HH% | BABIP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alcantara | 41.0 | 1.77 | 2.91 | 32.7% | .218 |
| Nola | 34.2 | 2.96 | 3.15 | 34.5% | .229 |
That final column is what bothers me the most when considering top notch efforts from tonight’s starters. Again, both offenses have quantifiable strengths in this scenario – making this anything but a slam dunk position. Phillies lefties Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, and rookie Bryson Stott are scorching hot and could pose the toughest test to date for Alcantara. But I keep coming back to these pitchers and metrics like Aaron’s 8.50 K/BB ratio and Sandy’s 53.8% ground ball rate. We could see a lot of frustrated batters at Citizens Bank Park the first couple times through the order. Just give me a slight delay with any impending BABIP regressions, okay?
WAGER: [0.5u] First 5 Innings Under 4 Runs (-120)
Since I’m jumping back into handicapping on short rest after over a week away from the game, no need to reach on this short Monday slate. I’ll be satisfied with a half-unit position and spending the evening gearing up for Tuesday. The snapback against these pitchers could be sharp – regardless, it is under or bust for me. BOL!
Today’s MLB Betting Card:
Heading for Home
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