The weekend is here at last, and could we actually be looking at a full MLB slate without any significant weather impacts? Last night’s start to the weekend was a good one, though the Angels’ inability to put away the D-backs resulted in a net push in the desert. But that’s where the Orioles come in, serving up a pair of runs in the 3rd inning to deliver an overall winning evening. Nothing brilliant – just another day on the six-month grind. Time to fire up the MLB Morning Breakdown for 6-12-2021…
2021 Featured Handicap Results
San Diego Padres @ New York Mets (+115)
Jacob deGrom isn’t walking back out onto the mound at Citi Field again today, that’s for damn sure. And though he only gets the ball every five games or so, this Mets rotation – despite having Cookie Carrasco and Noah Syndergaard on the IL – has an MLB-best 3.01 FIP and 2.82 ERA. If you’re more of an xFIP person, their 3.28 is second-best to the Brewers. San Diego’s starters are no slouches either, posting an aggregate 3.64 FIP/3.63 xFIP/3.33 ERA. And both teams are fighting for top dog status in their respective divisions, though the Mets have the benefit of an NL East where the other four teams continue to cannibalize themselves.
Last night’s razor-thin 3-2 Mets victory underlined the stellar arms that these two clubs have on their rosters. Blake Snell dodged a couple bullets to keep the Padres in the game, while the Mets bullpen almost let them back in. But in the bigger picture of offense, you have to acknowledge the recent disparity between these two clubs.
New York Mets & San Diego Padres Offenses (Trailing 7- and 14-Day Periods)
| NYM L7 | SDP L7 | NYM L14 | SDP L14 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVG | .279 | .204 | .292 | .176 |
| OBP | .337 | .281 | .353 | .263 |
| SLG | .516 | .326 | .573 | .255 |
| wRC+ | 136 | 73 | 157 | 52 |
The stark contrast in offensive production did not manifest itself last night as each team faced stiff competitors on the mound. Obviously the impacts of squaring off against Jacob deGrom go without saying unless you’ve been living in a cave. And as flawed as Blake Snell can be at times, New York has a slight bias towards right-handed pitching. Despite last night’s pitcher-dominated contest, plenty of respect is due to this resurgent Mets lineup – especially when it comes to five core players who have sustained success for a couple weeks now in terms of wRC+.
New York Mets Individual wRC+ (Trailing 7- and 14-Day Periods)
| Last 7 Days | Last 14 Days | |
|---|---|---|
| Alonso | 239 | 195 |
| McCann | 208 | 221 |
| McKinney | 242 | 202 |
| Pillar | 277 | 137 |
| Villar | 145 | 154 |
J. Musgrove (R) vs. M. Stroman (R)
The New York offense faces another stiff test against right-hander Joe Musgrove this afternoon. Musgrove’s excellent 2.93 FIP/2.55 xFIP season includes a complete game no-hitter at Texas in his second start of the season and four double-digit strikeout performances. His high-strikeout persona – over 12 K/9 in each of the last two seasons – leads us to one of Joe’s “flaws”, which is struggling to get past 5 innings in his starts. In most cases, this has not penalized the Padres much as their bullpen ranks in the top 10 with respect to their 3.79 FIP/3.67 xFIP. But the last couple weeks have been less kind to the San Diego relievers, who have flipped to a bottom-third unit in this period with a 4.75 FIP/4.24 xFIP. Ironically, the Mets bullpen has quietly been one of the best this season (3.24 FIP/3.70 xFIP) and still respectable over the last two weeks (3.72 FIP/3.95 xFIP).
Another factor with Musgrove is the polarity of his outings. The 28-year-old suffered only three hiccups – two to the Giants and the third to the Mets last Saturday at Petco Park. Those three outings yielded 13 runs, which are more than double the 6 runs given up in his eight other starts. Are the Mets one of his trouble teams this year? We may get our answer this afternoon, especially considering just how well New York is hitting at the moment. Or was last night part of their falling back down towards expectation?
No Time to Let Your Guard Down
His counterpart Marcus Stroman will have his hands full against a potent Padres lineup, even if they are sub-optimal at the moment. Similar to Musgrove, Stro is polarizing in his starts – which means today could be another top-notch outing like last weekend in San Diego, or it could be his fifth 3+ run affair of the season. Obviously the recency of Stroman’s 6.2-inning, 1-run victory against the Padres screams out how could the Mets be underdogs today? But I have to approach this with a clear head and give Musgrove a slight edge in terms of expected performance in their rematch. That’s in a vacuum without much respect to how their offenses are trending, which is the key differentiating factor that puts me on the Mets for the full game – especially at plus-money with the final say at the plate.
WAGER: Mets +116
New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies (+110)
Once again, I waffled on how to bet this game – big surprise, right? Ultimately I decided to focus on how this up-and-down Yankees lineup matches up against Vinny and the Phils bullpen. First and foremost, I must comment on where the New York offense is in the greater landscape right now. Prior to yesterday’s day off, the Yanks found their groove in Minnesota by hammering the Twins for 22 runs in three games. Perhaps the New York dominance over the Twins goes well beyond the playoffs, but I digress. That offensive explosion was a bit out of character for this underperforming lineup that is now as close to full strength as it will ever be.
New York Yankees Offensive Production
| AVG | OBP | SLG | wRC+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 7 Days | .307 | .362 | .513 | 141 |
| Last 14 Days | .249 | .320 | .411 | 104 |
| Season | .235 | .318 | .385 | 98 |
New York’s recent uptick in run production is heavily weighted by that spike in Minnesota, though being healthy is a big component of that success. Admittedly, I use the trailing 14-day period in my raw modeling rather than the seven-day timeframe since the shorter term can easily be skewed. But it does tell me to err on the high side of New York’s projected output. This afternoon’s clash with Vince Velasquez and the Phillies should be a litmus test of whether their offense is primed for an extended run or not.
J. Taillon (R) vs. V. Velasquez (R)
Vinny is one of those veteran pitchers who goes through stretches of brilliance but also runs into some really rough patches. He’s currently in one of those low points after yielding 9 runs on 9 hits to the Nationals and Reds. In sharp contrast, Velasquez dealt four straight starts with 1 or fewer runs and made a perfect relief appearance against Boston. This guy is really tough to pin down for a particular outing, though there are some attributes that point towards him playing right into New York’s hot hands:
- Career-low .250 BABIP
- Plenty of both walks and strikeouts (2.00 K/BB ratio)
- Career-high 46.8% hard hit rate
Even on his best days, Velasquez goes no deeper than 6 innings. That leaves 3+ innings in the hands of Philadelphia’s bullpen, which has 3 wins, 2 blown saves, and 1 loss in the last four games. Talk about a dizzying range of emotions for the Philly faithful, right D-Nice? At least their relief unit is rested, though I believe you have to expect it to cough up at least 1 run in the latter third of this afternoon’s game. Their 4.35 FIP/4.53 xFIP over the last two weeks calls for more like 2-3 runs, which gets my money behind the Yankees offense today.
WAGER: Yankees Team Total Over 4.5 Runs -130 (1/2 unit)
WAGER: Yankees Team Total Over 5 Runs +100 (1/2 unit)
ALTERNATIVE: Yankees -125
This is another situation where getting creative with my bet selection can come back to haunt me. Obviously if you do not have access to a book with multiple team total options, over 4.5 runs is perfectly fine. -130 juice is about all you want to lay on these team totals in my opinion, but to each his own. The MLB season is a battle of attrition – it is your bankroll versus the book, after all – and every nickel counts come September. Be wise and BOL today!
Around the Horn
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