Monday’s lackluster slate pulled a couple totals wagers out of me with mixed results. As for inspiration to write up a handicap yesterday morning, slim to none is a good way of putting it with those six games. Different animal altogether on this fine Tuesday morning. So let’s get things started with an interleague showdown between playoff contenders in the MLB Morning Breakdown for 6-11-2024. BOL!
Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles (ATL -135, 8)
Down, but not out. The 2021 World Series Champion Atlanta Braves likely won’t hit their mark for a third straight 100-win season. Losing three in a row at Washington and six of their last eight against the Nats did not help their cause either. Not much blame to be placed on Atlanta’s fringe top-five rotation and middling bullpen combining to yield the seventh-least runs to date. Scoring the league’s 18th-most number of runs is what their woes hinge on. Losing 2023 NL MVP for the season on May 27th simply added insult to injury.
ATL Offense, by Period
| Slash Line | wRC+ | wRC+ Rank | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | .253/.317/.443 | 111 | 7th |
| 2023 | .276/.344/.501 | 125 | 1st |
| 2024 | .244/.310/.401 | 101 | 13th |
| L14 Days | .209/.267/.351 | 74 | 28th |
| Thru 5/27 | .252/.320/.412 | 107 | 8th |
The post-Acuna injury hangover is real, even if the MVP’s .250/.351/.365 line and 4 home runs were considerably below expectation. Only Marcell Ozuna’s 18-homer, 175-wRC+ effort to date stands out on this lineup. Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, and especially Austin Riley have not produced to their customary levels.
Compare this to Baltimore’s thriving offense that has churned out runs at or near the top of the league – sharing the distinction as an offensive powerhouse with the likes of the Dodgers, Yankees, and Phillies. (Don’t sleep on the AL Central’s Royals and Guardians, though.) How will the Orioles’ 17% offensive surplus over the Braves play out tonight? Starting pitchers have something to say about it. As for the bullpens, Atlanta having yesterday off and Baltimore manager Brandon Hyde’s effective string-pulling leaves his relief unit in decent shape, likely without long man Keegan Akin and lefty Cionel Perez.
M Fried (L) vs. A Suarez (R)
Starting pitching is where the rubber meets the road. Elite southpaw Max Fried brings his 6-2 record to Inner Harbor with the intent of stopping his squad’s skid. He’ll test one of MLB’s best lineups against left-handed pitching with the intent of posting a fourth-straight outing with 7+ innings of work. Frustrating hitters with weak contact and a ton of ground balls is a result of Max wielding a diverse arsenal very effectively in his first 12 starts of the season. The 2.93 ERA does not receive much disagreement from the corresponding 3.23 FIP/3.11 xFIP.
Baltimore’s Albert Suarez was an early boon in return from his overseas years. Two zero-run starts to begin the season eventually gave way to relief work. Injuries have once again handcuffed the O’s rotation so Suarez will make his fourth straight start against an offense chomping at the bit to break out. Anticipate a 5-inning cap on Albert tonight – similar to recent starts against Toronto and Tampa Bay. My effectiveness range for him is much wider than Fried’s and is around 1/2 to a run higher. Baltimore’s bullpen will need to answer the challenge for 3+ innings of lockdown pitching to win a close contest.
WAGER: Orioles +115 (0.5u)
Relatively speaking, this is strength vs. weakness on both sides of the ledger. Baltimore’s potent lineup runs into the teeth of an elite Max Fried. Atlanta’s rebound catches a susceptible Albert Suarez and an O’s team that hasn’t had a day off since the end of May. When you’re as hot as the Orioles, maybe that’s not necessarily a bad thing. I’m in with a half-unit on the home dog until I decide whether to play team totals or push more in on the Birds.
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