The MLB Morning Breakdown for 5-8-2021 comes at you with a little more wind in the sails after Blake Snell’s ugly performance in San Francisco last night. DeSclafani held it down while Minnesota rebounded from a nasty bullpen entrance to dispatch the Tigers in rain-soaked Detroit. A couple plus-money winning positions is exactly where I want to be on a regular basis, but my featured handicaps must tighten up as the MLB season hits the one-fifth mark.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros (-140)
The full Saturday slate carries some minor weather implications, but the more troubling aspect is how my first handicapping run-through last night gravitated towards chalk. So I continued to dig in, and thanks to a very good conversation with Mike Barrera this morning, came to a firm conclusion to dump the juice and isolate one favorable scenario. And it hones in on game two between two offense-first clubs who are scratching to gain momentum in the 2021 season – just like yours truly.
S. Matz (L) vs. C. Javier (R)
Houston offers up righty Christian Javier on the bump this evening – and this kid appears to love pitching at Minute Maid Park. He has yet to surrender a run in three home starts, two of which have come against the above-average offenses of the Angels and Athletics. This “small sample” has produced a 1.73 FIP/3.08 xFIP at home this season, further corroborating a budding bias that started in last year’s rookie campaign. Despite having a 42.4% hard hit rate, his fastball/slider combo has been absolutely on point in 2021. Tonight, he squares off against a Toronto lineup that has widely struggled against effective sliders with two exceptions – Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. and Bo Bichette.
Opposing the 24-year-old phenom is veteran Steven Matz. The lefty has produced diverging experiences in his six starts at a Blue Jay. Matz was strong out of the gates, yielding just 1 run in each of the first three games. However, we now have the luxury of looking back at those outings to see that the Rangers, Angels, and Royals all have worse splits against lefties than righties. Since then, Matz has faced a pair of teams who have made hay against lefties this season – Washington and Oakland. The Nats have hit left-handed pitching about 30% better than against right-handers, while the Athletics are about 20% better. Both of those opponents racked up 15 hits in 8.2 innings.
Although tendencies, trends, and other data-driven conclusions can fail to materialize in any individual MLB game, I really like what this Houston team brings to the table tonight. The Astros’ lefty/right splits and trending metrics point toward a very advantageous scenario.
Houston Astros Offensive Production
| AVG | OBP | SLG | wRC+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs. LHP | .267 | .325 | .403 | 111 |
| Last 14 Days | .276 | .335 | .445 | 124 |
| Last 7 Days | .266 | .318 | .452 | 119 |
| First 5 Innings | .259 | .321 | .419 | 114 |
Houston checks a lot of boxes on offense in terms of steady slash lines and top-tier offensive production. Then you have to consider who is doing the damage for them, especially against southpaws. And that who is the Astros’ offensive core with plenty of plate appearances to draw conclusions from.
Houston Astros Individual Performance vs. LHP
| AVG | OBP | SLG | wRC+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y. Gurriel | .342 | .420 | .553 | 180 |
| Y. Alvarez | .340 | .377 | .598 | 147 |
| A. Bregman | .310 | .367 | .490 | 186 |
| M. Brantley | .309 | .345 | .500 | 119 |
WAGER: Astros First 5 Inning Team Total Over 2.5 -105
This is a situation where I bounced around from full game total, to Houston full game team total, and then Houston team total just for the first 5 innings. There are several ways to approach this game, but I’m most interested in striking early and focusing on what should be the Astros’ most significant advantage. Both bullpens have been decent across the 2021 season and are league-average at worst in recent weeks. Sure, Houston could stumble out of the box and fail to reach 3+ runs against Matz. That’s the variance that comes with baseball, after all. So I’ll gladly take the price of -105 to back these excellent hitters with little regret regardless of the outcome.
Around the Horn
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