First off, I owe our loyal readers an apology – a two-fold one. 1) Pablo’s bad day on Monday and my overconfidence in the Marlins. 2) Getting sabotaged by the day job early Tuesday AM, sinking my plans for an article. The day job also poses a high likelihood that there won’t be a Thursday edition. That said, I lose a little bit of profits on the Miami miss and look to get back on track with a Wednesday Solo Shot in the MLB Morning Breakdown for 5-4-2022. BOL!
2022 Featured Handicap Results
MINNESOTA TWINS @ BALTIMORE ORIOLES (+120)
D. Bundy (R) vs. K. Bradish (R)
Tonight’s game three of the four-game series between the Twins and Orioles features a pair of teams that I am long on their season win totals. Only one of which looks interested in actually going over – I’ll let you guess which one. Starting pitchers mean quite a bit in my handicap, though Kyle Bradish’s lack of MLB experience adds plenty of uncertainty into my process. So let’s start with a snapshot of these offenses. After all, a picture says a thousand words and a table will spare you another a paragraph:
MIN, BAL Offenses: .SLG (wRC+)
| Season | L14 Days | L7 Days | vs. RHP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | .377 (107) | .399 (117) | .447 (128) | .371 (104) |
| BAL | .313 (84) | .334 (86) | .345 (87) | .325 (86) |
Both offenses are trending positively, though Minnesota maintains a 20%+ gap above Baltimore’s bottom-third group. Yet I have to temper the Twins’ recent outburst that has produced 5+ runs in 8 of their last 10 games. Blend all of this into my secret sauce and I have Minnesota outperforming the O’s by less than 20% at the plate in this scenario. That’s more in line with their season-long and handedness split differentials, not the current form that would lead me towards a delta around 40%.
Minnesota is the favorite for a reason. Are they worth a 56.5-58.0% win rate price on the road? The offensive disparity certainly supports it. There is the threat of a passing shower early this evening, otherwise the weather looks pretty nice for a ballgame by the Inner Harbor. So no major impacts to offensive expectations via Mother Nature. Both defenses have been pretty rock solid to boot, adding little differentiation in that regard.
Whose Arms Reign Tonight?
Dylan Bundy’s last start in Tampa Bay was a “told you so” moment for his doubters. His line was atrocious: 6 R, 2 HR, 7 H. But if you dig deep enough, you’ll see that a rough 1st inning of 4 runs on 5 hits bore the brunt of his 6.0-inning outing. The veteran righty still checks in around the 3.00 mark with his big-picture metrics like ERA, FIP, SIERA, etc. Because of that, I still have confidence in Bundy being more like his 2020 self than last year’s fall from grace. Despite the Tampa affair his 40%+ ground ball, 12%+ swinging strike, and low-30% hard hit rates mean quite a bit especially when facing a low-power lineup like Baltimore’s.
Then we have a little mystery with Orioles true rookie Kyle Bradish. The right-hander featured a cutter/slider combo with what appears to be a pretty nice curve on the side. Bradish has just one start in his MLB career, a tough luck 3-1 loss to Boston after a bumpy 2nd inning. But he recovered nicely and gutted out a respectable 6.0-inning debut. Does the 3.00 ERA or the 5.04 SIERA better represent Kyle’s expectation for tonight’s start? That’s the tricky part of this handicap. After testing a wider range than usual due to this uncertainty, I’m conservatively rating Bundy about a 1/2-run better to FIP over Bradish.
A Late-Inning Edge?
I’ve probably understated the advantage that Minnesota’s bullpen should bring to the table tonight. Baltimore’s relief unit started the season as one of the more dominant groups but has steadily fallen back to reality (L14 days – 4.46 FIP; L7 days – 4.03 FIP). And you essentially have the opposite going on with the Twins (L14 days – 3.12 FIP; L7 days – 2.57 FIP). My conservative estimate is closer to a 1/2-run edge to the visitors, although a close game that brings out Minnesota’s better back-end group weighs more in favor of that unit. Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, and Joe Smith have quietly put in serious work as a tough high-leverage crew. Emilio Pagan, not so much.
This is a situation where I’m going against what my numbers tell me to a degree, which is an additional 5% of EV with the Twins first 5 innings line. The reason why is the lack of higher-level data on Kyle Bradish. His strong start in AAA this season earned him the spot in the big league rotation and another 2- or 3-run outing coupled with a meh performance from Dylan Bundy could result in a sweaty first 5 inning proposition. So the wide range of likely outcomes from Bradish has me in a full game position to leverage a bullpen operating at an impressively high level. This line is good to play up to around -145, though my tolerance to lay much more than -130 these days is fairly low. That’s just personal preference. Fire at will and BOL!
WAGER: Twins -131
ALTERNATIVE: Twins First 5 Innings -130
Heading for Home
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