The MLB Morning Breakdown for 5-30-2021 comes to you on the heels of a…cancelled Blue Jays bet. I knew that weather was going to be a factor in Saturday’s game at Progressive Field – but not quite like that. Now I throw a couple of my personal rules aside to attack Sunday’s action on the diamond. So this should be interesting to say the least. And after the MLB action wraps up this afternoon, we hit the track for one of the NASCAR Cup Series’ prized races – the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway. With so much on the docket today, let’s jump right into today’s handicaps!
2021 Featured Handicap Results
San Diego Padres @ Houston Astros (-115)
Can anyone deny that these two teams’ offenses have taken over this series? This is stating the obvious, and often the “obvious” double crosses us bettors and could very well bite me in the ass today. Both San Diego and Houston have climbed out of their mini offensive lulls to club each other on Friday and Saturday. The Padres faced some tough arms in Milwaukee then proceeded to pile on double digit runs in both games to start this series. Likewise, the Astros refreshed themselves with two days off last week and woke up to drive in six runs in regulation yesterday then put up a couple more in an extra-innings defeat.
Fatigue in the Bullpens
One of the most important factors in today’s series finale is the fatigue that both bullpens are experiencing. And the last two nights have presented enormous high-leverage situations – with plenty of runs – in the late innings. San Diego’s relief unit was already gassed coming into the series and was leaned on heavily in Houston. Their starters logged just 8 innings in those two games, burdening the bullpen with 15 innings of work. Their back end stalwarts were especially worked hard:
- Closer Mark Melancon – worked back-to-back nights and three out of the last four
- Setup man Emilio Pagan – spared last night after making three appearances in the previous four games
- Setup man Austin Adams – also worked back-to-back nights and three out of the last four
After getting back to full strength this week, Houston’s relievers have already worked 13.2 innings this weekend. They coughed up 11 runs with both games hanging in the balance, earning a pair of losses for their “efforts”. The most dramatic example was their dependable closer Ryan Pressly giving up a huge 2-out, 3-run jack to Fernando Tatis, Jr. in the top of the 9th inning last night. The remainder of their back end worked quite a bit this weekend as well, likely leaving less-reliable middle relievers to pick up any slack this afternoon if Greinke cannot go deep.
B. Snell (L) vs. Z. Greinke (R)
The word is clearly out that Blake Snell is good for two trips through opposing lineups before he drops off the proverbial cliff. And that’s why we rarely see him make it out of the 5th inning. Manager Jayce Tingler knows the deal and has managed Blake well this season to the point where he has given up more than 2 runs only three times in his ten starts. Houston could be held at bay if Snell’s slider is on point, though the guy cannot just throw sliders over 5+ innings. His fastball and changeup have let him down too often this season and present juicy opportunities for Houston to strike early.
Although I respect his decent 4.12 FIP/3.34 xFIP – especially with a .327 BABIP – the fact that he has given up career-high 39.0% hard hit and 11.4% barrel rates has to be appealing to the Astros hitters. Additionally, Houston’s offense has stayed afloat this weekend without key cogs Jordan Alvarez and Michael Brantley in the lineup. On the downside, we don’t know if Yuli Gurriel will be available today as he is battling finger inflammation. Gurriel’s absence is especially tough considering his impressive .357/.400/.571 slash line against Snell. Fortunately for Houston, both Alex Bregman (.385/.529/.692) and Jose Altuve (.308/.357/1.000 with 3 homers) have hit him well throughout their careers.
Can Greinke Hold Down the Fort?
Zack Greinke, on the other hand, has gone at least 6 innings in his last three outings – and his team desperately needs him to go deep again today to spare their maligned bullpen. Fortunately for Zack, only Fernando Tatis, Jr. has a positive track record against him (.375/.444/.750) while most of their veterans have not fared nearly as well. But here we are faced with the handicappers’ dilemma: rely more on history or current form? If we trust the latter more heavily, then signs point to the Padres getting theirs this afternoon. Greinke has yielded 3+ runs in five of his last six starts and this Padres lineup is arguably finding their groove once again. Otherwise, past performance says that San Diego’s bats will be a bit sluggish until Zack leaves the game. Even in that situation we have seen them do a ton of damage in the late innings against Houston’s bullpen.
WAGER: Over 8 -113
Rule #1 being broken: I don’t bet game totals. It’s a long story but I have bet only a handful of game totals the last few years – and here I go leading off with one today. But in my humble amateur opinion, 8 runs is on the low side of my projected probable range of 8.5 – 9.5. I could pick either team total to go over 3.5 or 4 runs and probably be successful either way. So instead of picking one or both, let’s just go with a combined effort and see if we can’t get there by the 7th inning.
St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks (+100)
At the time of publishing, Arizona’s starting pitcher is no longer listed on the four sportsbooks I use. However, signs point toward right-hander Matt Peacock getting the nod to close out the series. So we have an Arizona club that has dropped 13 in a row and is in danger of losing manager Tori Louvello to the angry mob of Diamondbacks fans. Must win or auto-fade? Neither is part of my handicapping narrative – I’ll just stick to the game that is in front of me.
K. Kim (L) vs. M. Peacock (R)???
Kwang Hyun Kim faces an Arizona lineup that was lethal against lefties early this season. And it has been a while since they squared off against a southpaw starter, so maybe this is the remedy for their ongoing skid. Or perhaps that early-season splits success was the product of some very lopsided performances against left-handed pitching. Just ask Patrick Corbin. Now this club is faced with a guy who has arguably outperformed expectations with a 3.06 FIP and 0.56 HR/9 rate. Sure, Kim has been barreled up 10.4% this season as opposed to 4.2% last year but has taken care of business with a strong 2.91 K/BB ratio. He stumbled recently against a tough Padres lineup and the lefty-killing White Sox after holding opponents to just 1 run in his previous four starts.
Matt Peacock’s recent scheduled start was pushed back due to illness and now he is likely to take the bump this afternoon to help stop Arizona’s skid. After a decent stint in the bullpen, Peacock made two starts with varying degrees of success. He struggled at home against Miami (5.0 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 3K) before taking care of business against the Dodgers (5.1 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 4 K). And one of the biggest breaks that he could get today is St. Louis resting a couple key players like Molina, Goldy, or Arenado after their hectic schedule. Those strong bats will be needed to take advantage of a 27-year-old who forces opponents to hit him.
Which Peacock Do We Get Today?
Peacock is a contact pitcher with a superb 59.7% ground ball rate and 5.00 K/BB ratio. The flaw in his game is hard contact (45.8%) and what could be the beginnings of a reversion from a .250 BABIP. Can we read anything into the splits of a guy who has pitched only 22.0 innings in the majors? If so, take a look at this:
Matt Peacock Home/Road Splits, 2021 Season
| IP | R | HR | AVG | FIP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 10.2 | 11 | 4 | .340 | 7.25 |
| Away | 11.1 | 3 | 0 | .132 | 1.98 |
Again, with such a small body of work looking at splits like this can be deceiving. One or two great or really bad outings can skew them heavily in one direction or the other. I find myself putting him in the mid-4.00s FIP range and working through the 5th inning this afternoon. With the Cardinals having used their strongest back end bullpen arms quite heavily dating back to Wednesday, I prefer to leave the relievers out of the equation and tackle the first 5 innings with a mini-ladder to reach for some positive yield. To St. Louis’ credit, they have jumped on Arizona starters on the regular with a considerable 18-5 scoring margin through 5 innings in the first three games of this series (Thursday 4-0, Friday 7-3, Saturday 7-2).
WAGER: Cardinals First 5 Innings -120 (1/2 unit)
WAGER: Cardinals First 5 Innings -1/2 +110 (1/2 unit)
Rule #2 being broken: I swore off betting Cardinals games halfway through April. However, I have played several of their games this month behind the scenes with decent success. So what is going to happen now that I am publicly breaking my self-imposed rule and backing the Redbirds? More success, right? That’s the plan, anyhow…
Baltimore Orioles @ Chicago White Sox (-250)
K. Akin (L) vs. L. Giolito (R)
Look, this White Sox versus a leftyb pitcher is 100% cliche by now. And despite the cost of doing business, we keep betting this damn thing – and it keeps paying for the most part. Today, however, all signs point toward Baltimore southpaw starter Keegan Akin lasting only about 3 innings. Is this enough time for the loaded Chicago lineup to do plenty of damage? It may not matter after all, considering that Baltimore fields a below-average bullpen with realistically only one right-handed reliever who is in decent form right now – Cole Sulser. Otherwise, the Orioles offer a struggling middle relief corps and a closer-by-committee group with a pair of lefties.
Keegan Akin will make his first start of the season after three long relief appearances in the last couple weeks. Those outings yielded 7 runs in 9.1 innings despite giving up just 1 walk and 1 home run. Although his 6.10 ERA is a bit deceptive, I believe you have to consider him to be a 5.00-ish FIP arm that does not fool around with the strike zone. And neither do the White Sox hitters, who are facing a guy with a meaty 43.8% hard hit rate this season after a 50.0% rate last year. You hate to overthink this one with decent weather and Chicago in their usual groove on offense:
- Last 7 days – .255/.356/.439, 127 wRC+
- Season vs. LHP – .279/.359/.471, 133 wRC+
WAGER: White Sox Team Total Over 5 -115
Around the Horn
Visit the MLB page at BetCrushers.com for free handicapping articles containing insights into our daily plays. It’s also home to our season previews and futures portfolio. Need a reminder? Follow our Twitter feed or subscribe below for email alerts. Stay connected and BOL!
