With just one week left before leaving the country, it’s almost like I’m in one of those money booths with cash swirling around. How much can I grab before the thing shuts off and my 10-day hiatus kicks in? While I joke, my MLB betting has maintained a positive trajectory and just pushed past the high water mark set before an inevitable downtick in early May. The ebbs and flows of the long baseball season are real and we look to keep the cash flowing this weekend, starting with a couple positions in the MLB Morning Breakdown for 5-28-2022. BOL this weekend!
MLB Results Since Last Post (5-25-2022)
KANSAS CITY ROYALS @ MINNESOTA TWINS (-150)
B. Singer (R) vs. C. Archer (R)
Is the Brady Singer resurgence legit? Since returning from AAA Omaha the promising 25-year-old right-hander has been a tough nut to crack with a pair of 0-run, 7-inning starts against the White Sox and this Twins club just six days ago. Singer skirted all damage from that most recent 3-strikeout, 3-walk outing that yielded only 4 hits. But here’s where I poke a hole in Brady’s impressive return to the majors: the Minnesota game registered a 4.57 xFIP and 5.12 SIERA. That’s a far cry from his 9-strikeout, 1.37 xFIP start against a White Sox lineup that generally struggles against righties.
The Twins, on the other hand, do not discriminate in terms of handedness. They hit him fairly hard last week but suffered the same fate as the White Sox via 60.0% ground ball rates in each of those starts. Byron Buxton’s struggles of late have been overcompensated by his teammates slashing .289/.368/.405 over the last seven days, aided in part by the return of Jorge Polanco. Minnesota’s lineup will challenge Brady Singer once again and I cannot reasonably expect another flawless performance from the Royals’ up-and-comer.
Royals On the Rise?
Kansas City has not been bad at all offensively either, slashing .259/.340/.425 over the past seven days. Not quite as robust as the Twins’ current form but far from mediocre. They face veteran right-hander Chris Archer and his 5.55 FIP/4.92 xFIP profile tempered somewhat by a 4.73 SIERA. Archer’s home run issue was quieted in the last couple starts, though upper-70s temps and a decent crosswind at Target Field should not hurt run production. The Royals’ improving offense will test his .241 BABIP, 40.4% hard hit rate, and 33.7% ground ball rate – especially with their current power “surge”.
While I believe that Kansas City is punching above their weight class offensively for the time being, this is not the time to jump off of this little hot streak. Famous last words, right? The top half of their lineup is rounding into form – especially 21-year-old phenom Bobby Witt, Jr. MJ Melendez has picked up the slack from injured catcher Salvador Perez and will likely be pushed into the lineup (DH?) despite grinding an everyday role out of necessity. My handicap has the Royals lineup conservatively lagging the Twins by about 10% and Singer outpacing Archer by just over 1 run to FIP. Minnesota’s defensive advantage certainly helps their cause but the underdog price on the Royals this afternoon is a go for me. Neither bullpen has been reliable in recent weeks as they have strayed from their season-long numbers, keeping me focused on the first 5 innings approach here.
WAGER: Royals First 5 Innings +124
I lost a good amount of CLV on this position already this morning, which has been a little uncharacteristic of my early AM and overnight plays this week. It is what it is and I don’t hate the +124 ticket despite leaving some value on the table. Brady Singer will pay the piper at some point and today could be the day. But the ace in the hole is a Royals lineup that has found a nice groove of their own and can keep Singer – and my plus money ticket – alive this afternoon.
MIAMI MARLINS @ ATLANTA BRAVES (-115)
S. Alcantara (R) vs. T. Davidson (L)
What is it about Sandy Alcantara that draws me in like a magnet? Especially when NL East rival Atlanta throws Ozzie Albies, Dansby Swanson, Marcell Ozuna, and Ronald Acuna, Jr. against him. Although Acuna may be out of the lineup once again this afternoon, these guys have been very effective against Sandy in their careers. And while Ozuna is scuffling at the plate recently, the middle infield tandem of Swanson and Albies have been on point this week. They’ve been catalysts for a Braves offense that came to life over the last 7 days (.275/.332/.429) despite increasing their league-high strikeout rate.
Alcantara has fared well in the early frames this season, especially as he went the distance against the Braves last time out – right on the heels of two deep, 1-run outings against Washington and Arizona. Walks could be the death of my wager as the 26-year-old righty has shed some strikeouts from previous seasons. But he still gets swings-and-misses with a dialed-in slider/changeup secondary combo that generates a nice 33.5% hard hit rate. Plus the dude still gets 50%+ ground balls and keeps the Fish alive in his starts. In Sandy I trust, backing him with a nice little plus money team total under sweat this afternoon.
WAGER: [0.5u] Braves First 5 Innings Under 1.5 Runs +129
ALTERNATIVE: Marlins First 5 Innings -109
These first 5 inning team unders are a borderline addiction of mine when plus money pokes its finger at me. As you probably know, totals plays of any type only get a half-unit as I work out the kinks from my totals approach. So far, so good this season as I tempt the fates of run proliferation once again in Atlanta. Miami first 5 innings is a viable alternative if you don’t like the team total under, though the Marlins’ challenges against lefties steered me away from this approach.
Today’s MLB Betting Card:
Heading for Home
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