At least some folks know how to bet my handicaps properly. It was good to hear that a number of our crew laid the hook with Houston on the first 5 inning side as opposed to me laying the -1. While I pushed, folks like my BetCrushers partner Yanni, D-Nice from the WagerRager gang, and Paul from NASCARStyleOdds.com took it to the bank. Yet I think we are all happy to have gotten out of Arlington after the 5th inning before the Houston bullpen imploded. With that, it’s time to roll out the MLB Morning Breakdown for 5-23-2021. Enjoy the rest of your weekends!
2021 Featured Handicap Results
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves (-200)
Has the Braves lineup finally woken up to achieve its full potential? Since their mini-road trip to Milwaukee, Atlanta has scored 5+ runs in six of those nine games. They made a huge splash with a 20 spot against Pittsburgh Friday night then came back with 6 runs yesterday. As much as my mind wants to say “well, that was against a slumping Pirates team”, the legitimacy of Atlanta’s 119 wRC+ in the last 14 days and 133 wRC+ this past week is rooted in Freddie Freeman’s awakening.
Just a couple of weeks ago, it was not unusual to see Freddie looking dejected and not his usual self. That is certainly natural when the NL MVP starts off in uncharacteristically-poor fashion. Through May 7th, Freeman slashed just .195/.326/.407 with a 95 wRC+. Since then, he has hit safely in 12 of 14 games with 5 home runs and a scorching-hot 191 wRC+ and .340/.453/.642 slash line. Not to be lost in all of this is good production from the bottom of this Braves lineup – notably Austin Riley and Dansby Swanson who are both on 4+ game hitting streaks.
JT Brubaker (R) vs. M. Fried (L)
Pittsburgh’s attempt to stop the bleeding rides on their best starter, JT Brubaker. I have plenty of respect for him as a low-4.00s FIP righty with a solid 3.67 K/BB ratio that generates a ton of ground ball contact (51.2%). He is making a rare start outside of the NL Central this afternoon after suffering just his second start of 3+ runs against him. And both of those rougher outings came against the St. Louis Cardinals. What could be trouble for him against a rolling Atlanta lineup is an iffy 39.8% hard hit rate and 7 walks in his last three starts. Plus Brubaker has coughed up a home run in each of his last five outings.
The -200 price on Atlanta obviously implies that the home team will only get 8 innings on offense, placing a greater emphasis on what the Braves can do against Brubaker. Barring an early blowout, JT should be good for 5+ innings and then require only 2-3 frames out of their bullpen. His longevity this afternoon is of utmost importance to the Pirates. Pittsburgh’s relief unit has been good this season (3.99 FIP/4.14 xFIP) but is trending sharply to the downside lately. The last 14 days have been rocky (4.99 FIP/4.59 xFIP), but the past week was nothing short of a disaster (6.07 FIP/5.45 xFIP). Brubaker must give his club 6 solid innings if they want a legitimate shot of staying in this one.
Atlanta’s Counter
Attacking Max Fried is another way for the Pirates to be competitive today. Outside of Adam Frazier and Bryan Reynolds propping up this lineup with their excellent .399 and .387 OBPs, respectively, it is a tall task getting runs out of the Bucs. Lefty Max Fried has settled down from a turbulent start to his 2021 campaign, yielding only 1 run in each of his last three starts. Although Fried has been prone to hard contact at times, you have to respect his spike in strikeouts this season (10.29 K/9) despite generating a career low 37.0% ground ball contact. He is in excellent form and should be counted on to go 6 innings with minimal damage.
WAGER: Braves Team Total Over 4.5 -108
ALTERNATIVE: Braves Run Line +105
For me, this comes down to simplifying the approach and riding an Atlanta lineup that has plenty of momentum from top to bottom. Freddie Freeman’s awakening has sparked his MVP form, however, there is a risk that manager Brian Snitker rests Freeman and another key player or two this afternoon. Not that he thinks this game is a layup win, but the top six men in his lineup have played every single day this week. That concern could be moot for the most part considering they have tomorrow and Thursday off. I’ll ride with the Braves’ bats today and throw the high price of the Atlanta’s side out of the equation. Despite being the home team and likely missing out on their final at bats, the Atlanta run line at plus-money is certainly a viable option in this scenario. And after yesterday’s call, maybe the alternative to my position is actually the better bet!
Chicago White Sox @ New York Yankees (-135)
What can you do with a slumping White Sox team? How about a Yankees lineup that continues to battle the injury bug? Clearly, the correct answer is to find a winnable plus-money position to attack this game with. First you have to consider exactly how these offenses are trending and if there are any indicators calling for a change in direction.
- White Sox last 7 days: .250/.348/.415; 117 wRC+
- White Sox last 14 days: .258/.350/.440; 123 wRC+
- Yankees last 7 days: .266/.325/.397; 104 wRC+
- Yankees last 14 days: .248/.321/.383; 99 wRC+
Both offenses’ recent performances have generally been steady in terms of their trailing 7- and 14-day measures. The Yankees have scored more than 2 runs only twice since Monday, including yesterday’s explosion against Dylan Cease in the 4th and 5th innings. And much of those struggles can be attributed to a lack of meaningful depth and Luke Voit having yet to find his stride this season. On the flip side, you have a White Sox club that has the talent to go off every single day yet is anything but invincible.
D. Keuchel (L) vs. J. Taillon (R)
The key to today’s series finale lies with the starting pitchers. Are they both in form to keep each other’s offenses at bay? Dallas Keuchel has not been the most dependable starter for Chicago this season, and not being a strikeout pitcher can be tough if opponents are able to get men aboard. The 33-year-old sports an impressive 58.2% ground ball rate with a questionable 37.3% hard hit rate. Keuchel’s changeup has been quite good this season, helping him to keep hitters off balance and produce outs. Although Dallas is very exploitable, are the Yankees in position to take advantage?
29-year-old Jameson Taillon counters with a completely different style of pitching, having struck out a career high 28.7% of batters this season. But Taillon is also about 10% below the ground ball rates he put up in Pittsburgh. Which, when coupled with a career high 18.4% HR/FB rate, can spell big trouble in the right situations. His velocities are down compared to his pre-surgery years but his slider is looking quite good these days. Ironically for as different as these two pitchers’ styles are – at their core, they are low-to-mid 4.00s FIP starters that can be expected to yield 2-3 runs in the first 5 innings of their starts. So which offense exploits the other’s pitcher more effectively?
WAGER: White Sox First 5 Innings +115
There are a lot of pros and cons to the current form of these two offenses, as well as both Keuchel and Taillon. Chicago provides more potent bats but is arguably in a small slump – one that can be broken out of at any time though. Yet we just saw the Yankees take advantage of Dylan Cease as he faded down the stretch, punishing him for his mistakes. So don’t count out Aaron Judge and Gleyber Torres from doing the same against Keuchel if he is less than sharp. Both bullpens are in very good form and I see a slightly better edge for Chicago when the relief units are taken out of the equation. So give me the the +115 dog in what should be close to a coin flip matchup.
Around the Horn
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