Between a crazy work schedule and a 101-degree fever this week, I’m just happy it’s the weekend. We all hit rough patches here and there but vacation is right around the corner so the vibes are good around these parts! No complaints overall with progress this season other than weakness with my first 5 innings handicapping and team totals to a lesser extent. Case in point, Tuesday’s mess of a wager was a failed first 5 inning team total. The barrage of subpar featured handicaps has been borderline ugly so I’m hoping to align the planets before heading overseas Thursday. Can I dial up a dub with a solo shot in the MLB Morning Breakdown for 5-20-2023???
2023 Featured Handicap Results
BALTIMORE ORIOLES @ TORONTO BLUE JAYS (TOR -130, 9.5)
G Rodriguez (R) vs. A Manoah (R)
What do we do with Alek Manoah? His struggles are well documented after bursting onto the scene in 2021 and backing up that stellar rookie campaign with a 16-7, 4.1-WAR season. Transitioning from a high-strikeout approach as a rookie to more of a controlling role has met stiff resistance from opponents in 2023. Manoah’s strikeout rate is down 6.5% in the early goings as his swinging strike rate follows suit. That could be manageable if it weren’t for the 15.0% walk rate. Only three of his nine starts have yielded less than 4 walks. And a home run has been given up in each of Alek’s four home starts.
The Jays starter has always been a bit wild, leading the AL in hit batters in both 2021 and 2022, but the command of his fastball and slider is putting him in tough situations on numerous occasions this season that is coming back to hurt him on the scoreboard.
Blue Jays’ Alek Manoah is Struggling to Find a Rhythm in 2023 – Tyson Shushkewich, Just Baseball – May 18, 2023
None of this is breaking news or inside information. The 25-year-old righty has delivered a pair of 7-inning shutout performances, so blindly fading the guy is anything but a slam dunk. Helping the Orioles’ cause this afternoon is plate discipline, although their 9.9% walk rate (3rd in MLB) weakens a bit against right-handed pitching. However, Baltimore’s 0.42 BB/K ratio versus righties is still rock solid against a pitcher who has K’ed 5 or fewer batters in all but one start.
The Door Is Open
Clearly, the door is open for Baltimore with Manoah’s rough 1.09 K/BB and 14.3% HR/FB ratios. My probable range of outcomes pertaining to the side does not turn me on to that approach. The inexperienced and inconsistent Grayson Rodriguez is the biggest reason why. The case against a Baltimore scoring barrage centers on the O’s general offensive downtrend in the trailing 14-day period, although the past week has been much closer to their overall form.
The Orioles are loaded with righty-hitting sluggers, even if Cedric Mullins and Gunnar Henderson aren’t in prime form. Plus Adam Frazier has been quietly producing in the bottom third of the lineup to help turn this lineup over. Oddly enough, it is Frazier and Austin Hays who can add a much-needed cherry on top today. At the end of the day, I grade Manoah with a wide mid-4.00s to 6.00 FIP range skewed higher against left-handed hitting. Throw in Toronto’s bullpen – 3.24 ERA, 5.86 FIP/4.91 xFIP this past week – and this sets up as a decent recipe for run production.
WAGER: Orioles Team Total Over 4 -120 (1.2u)
More hot garbage? Hard telling. Books like Bovada and FanDuel offer the 4, which I like more than 4.5 at even money given my handicap. The bottom part of my probable team total range is right on the 4 with upside to 4.9. I’ll pay the extra 20 cents for the push backstop and see if Baltimore’s bats can stop the bleeding with my featured handicaps!
Heading for Home
Be sure to visit the MLB page at BetCrushers.com: your source for free handicapping insights into our daily baseball perspectives and season previews. Want our newest content delivered directly to you? Follow our Twitter feed or subscribe below for email alerts to stay in the loop. As always, BOL with your MLB wagers!
