Don’t you love it when a plan comes together? Many thanks to Big Tasty for sparing me from writing yesterday morning by bringing me on his show. It was a good time breaking down five games on the Sunday slate – two of which we took positions on, yielding a nice profit. So let’s start the new week off on the right foot with a Monday Solo Shot in the MLB Morning Breakdown for 5-2-2022!
2022 Featured Handicap Results
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS @ MIAMI MARLINS (-145)
Z. Gallen (R) vs. P. Lopez (R)
Although these teams aren’t on the same level as the Phillies-Mets Sunday Night Baseball pairing, there are some interesting similarities with tonight’s Diamondbacks-Marlins series kickoff. For one, I have plenty of respect for both Zac Gallen and Pablo Lopez. More so with the latter. Although Arizona’s budding ace appears to be shedding his 2021 “down season” and is back on track where he left off in 2020. Likewise, 26-year-old Lopez continues his march towards being recognized as one of the game’s better young starting pitchers. Both starters have yielded just 1 run this season and there’s a decent chance they will maintain their stinginess against each other’s lineups this evening.
Gallen has really dialed in on his core fastball/curve/changeup repertoire, yielding 2.22 FIP/3.88 xFIP and a depressed .162 BABIP. My respect is gained by Zac’s rebound in hard contact (32.4%), swinging strike (11.5%), and ground ball rates (40.5%). Plus Arizona’s defense is trending in the right direction this season, making the 26-year-old righty a very good fit for a Diamondbacks club looking to get their franchise pointed back in the right direction. The kid is earning and outpacing my sub-4.00 FIP expectation for this season.
Keying In On Strengths
Neither offense was slated to be overly dangerous coming into the 2022 campaign. My macro expectations had the Marlins being about 3% better in aggregate, though about 8% better against right-handed pitching. At an eighth of the way through the season, the gap is significantly wider in all aspects. Miami has produced about 40% more versus righties than Arizona while outpacing them in last 7- and last 14-day trailing production to the tune of 45% and 48%, respectively. Yet in tonight’s matchup I have the Marlins as being a touch less than 9% better at the plate.
The narrowing of that gap is courtesy of Zac Gallen and tempering Miami’s offense with modest overall expectations. As a Pablo Lopez backer in this one, I must plan for a pitchers’ duel into the 6th inning. I make Pablo about 1/3-run better as a 1.63 FIP/2.59 xFIP starter with a 44.8% ground ball rate and hard contact right around that oppressive 30% mark. Both pitchers’ control has been top notch to date. But I give Lopez a little more benefit of the doubt given his career track record and consistency in key aspects.
Decisions, Decisions
Why not isolate Lopez on the first 5 inning line? Perhaps I respect Gallen a little too much. But it’s also a case of a thin margin between the two, though the gap gets a little wider when the game goes to the bullpens. Assuming Pablo gets into or through the 6th inning, the Marlins bullpen has their full back end complement of relievers available for a tight finish. And you can expect the same from the D-backs relief unit, although they set up as 1/3- to 1/2-run worse to FIP. This is a situation where Miami’s incremental gains in all facets of the game should lead to a close, but firm, victory in South Florida this evening. Gallen likely keeps it very tight but my numbers give me confidence in the 5% EV range on the full game line.
WAGER: Marlins -1 (-110)
ALTERNATIVE: Marlins -145
This game sets up to be nip-and-tuck with two starting pitchers in great form. I laid the -1 to limit my exposure knowing full well that a one-run Marlins win leaves me with a push, much like my Mets position last night. I’m a cheap ass – what can I say? If -145 of -150 is in your price range and you agree with my handicap, fire away and BOL!
Heading for Home
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