The MLB Morning Breakdown for 5-19-2021 returns after a two-day hiatus due to a brutal start to the work week. We left off with a Sunday solo shot on the Boston Red Sox that, unfortunately, got Ohtanied in the 9th inning. With just one out to go, Mike Trout blooped in a single then Shohei wrapped a blast around the Pesky Pole to give the Angels the final lead of the game. That’s baseball and now we chug along with a Wednesday West Coast solo shot…
Houston Astros @ Oakland Athletics (-110)
The opening game of this monster AL West series was a wild and entertaining one. These teams traded blows last night until Ramon Laureano’s sacrifice fly in the bottom of the 9th ended the 21-hit affair with a 6-5 Athletics victory. Laureano’s big night helped end Houston’s six-game win streak and stretch Oakland’s division lead to 1.5 games. You get the sense that these teams’ run differential disparity (Houston +55, Oakland -7) goes right out the window when they clash this year.
Both offenses continued operating at a high level yesterday after having Monday off. In the trailing seven-day period, Oakland slashed .256/.310/.465 with a 121 wRC+. Not to be outdone, Houston’s .309/.391/.480, 147 wRC+ mark in that same period represents the MLB’s third-best scoring offense this season at 5.27 runs/game. This is also consistent with their 14-day trend of posting a league-best 145 wRC+, as compared to the Athletics’ 104. Houston’s consistency at the plate is very impressive, though I must acknowledge that Oakland is peaking at the right time as their main threat in the AL West rolled into town.
Impressive Individual Performances
These lineups boast quite a few players with OPS greater than .700 over the last two weeks. Houston’s Kyle Tucker (1.208), Jose Altuve (1.125), Yordan Alvarez (1.083), Yuli Gurriel (.950), Alex Bregman (.886), and Carlos Correa (.709) have been absolutely mashing their way to the top. On the flip side, Oakland’s Mark Canha (.801), Ramon Laureano (.769), Matt Chapman (.758), Matt Olson (.754), and Stephen Piscotty (.729) helped their club rattle off seven wins in the last ten games – with six of those contests being decided by just one run. As good as the A’s have been at the plate lately, the ‘Stros have been even more phenomenal. But does all of that recent history mean anything when these two clubs get together?
Z. Greinke (R) vs. F. Montas (R)
The 37-year-old ageless wonder, Zack Greinke, makes his tenth start of 2021 this evening. It will be his first time facing the A’s since his 0-run, 6-inning Opening Day victory. Since then, Zack has been roughed up several times – mostly at home – and was unable to make it past the 5th inning in four starts. He would like to regain his magic on the road, where he had given up just 2 runs in starts at Oakland, Los Angeles, and Seattle until a rough one in New York a couple weeks ago.
The trouble with Greinke is that he will give up runs, which can be manageable given the run support that his offense provides. His 30.2% hard hit rate is very good, though his tendency is to yield plenty of contact. And that can be compounded at the Coliseum where there is a lot of real estate for balls to drop into. Greinke’s key to limiting damage and eating innings is to work the strike zone. Three of his five outings that yielded 3+ runs involved multiple walks. But obviously he cannot get too comfortable with the heart of the zone against a good-hitting A’s team. His curve and changeup must be on point if he wants to get through the 5th inning tonight.
Pitching at Home
Frankie Montas gets his second crack at the Astros this season as well. He would love to replicate his 1-run, 6-inning outing in early April in which his only blemish was a solo home run. While neither starter is expected to be as stingy as they were earlier in the season against these teams, both should be in the same ballpark tonight. The key differentiator between these righties is Montas’ career-high 43.0% hard hit rate – despite his velocities being up across the board – against a Houston club that can truly capitalize as a top-tier hard-hitting lineup.
Frankie’s biggest disappointment this season has been the slider – a pitch that headlined his four-pitch arsenal in recent years. Instead, he is leaning more on an improved fastball. But that may not be his best option against a team who boasts five regular starters that are mashing old #1. My bottom line in looking at this individual game is that neither pitcher has a distinct advantage over the other. In fact, Oakland’s edge enters once Montas leaves. The A’s bullpen has consistently been above-average this season with a 3.76 FIP, edging out Houston’s 4.27 mark. Although xFIP argues these units are much closer together. Either way you look at it, both groups should be near full strength after working a reasonable 3 innings last night with Monday off.
Ready to Pounce
Multiple players on each roster have had plenty of success against tonight’s starters. And many of these guys are also in prime form coming into the contest. Here’s a breakdown in terms of OPS versus the listed pitchers:
- R. Laureano (OAK) 1.889
- M. Chapman (OAK) 1.000
- M. Brantley (HOU) .947
- C. Correa (HOU) .944
- C. Pinder (OAK) .844
- E. Andrus (OAK) .825
- K. Tucker (HOU) .778
- Y. Gurriel (HOU) .745
WAGER: Astros -110
If neither pitcher has a significant advantage over the other, which of each club’s key edges will overshadow the other tonight? Will Oakland’s late-inning bullpen prowess neutralize Houston’s stacked lineup? This is not a season where offense is ruling the roost – for now, at least – but I will rely on Houston’s top-to-bottom strength to get the win tonight. Laying -110 is fine, though you definitely do not want to overpay considering that I project a modest 57% win rate for the Astros. Eliminating the bullpens and taking Houston on the first 5 inning line for a higher price around -120 is an option as well, though I am not completely confident that Greinke will be dominant enough to pay up for it.
Around the Horn
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