With a tremendous Sunday ahead – great weather, cooking out, and watching NASCAR at Dover – the MLB Morning Breakdown for 5-16-2021 is a quick one. Despite the White Sox letdown yesterday, the Mariners held serve against the Indians once again and Boston drove a stake right through the hopes of a slumping Angels club. It was good enough to keep chugging along, so let’s wrap up this weekwith a solo shot. BOL and enjoy the day!
Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox (-160)
The price of doing business with the Red Sox has certainly gone up compared to yesterday. Saturday’s lopsided pitching matchup pitted Dylan Bundy against the skittish Martin Perez, putting the Sox around an even-money dog. While neither starter looked sharp, only one team took advantage of their opportunities with men on base. Odd things happen all the time in the game of baseball, but the 9-0 result in favor of Boston may indicate just how divergent these teams are right now.
J. Quintana (L) vs. N. Eovaldi (R)
Today’s pitching matchup swings the opposite direction as a pair of 30-somethings in Nathan Eovaldi and Jose Quintana square off. Eovaldi’s 2.17 FIP/3.51 xFIP reflects his successful season to date although I have him pegged as a high-3.00s FIP caliber righty. But his five starts with 2 runs or less have been countered by three big bumps in the road against Detroit, Chicago, and Seattle – all of which came at home. So there is that caution to note. Otherwise, the veteran offers has solid metrics – 48.9% ground ball rate, 4.10 K/BB, and 32.6% hard hit rate. Will Eovaldi be dialed similar to his five superb starts, or will today’s contest result in his fourth shaky outing?
It takes two to tango, and the looming question is how much longer will this Angels offense stay in their funk? Their production over a 7-day period has been bottom of the barrel (.183/.254/.285) while Boston’s has been ramping back into form (.241/.291/.443). A bad day from Eovaldi could go a long way toward getting L.A.’s offense back on track and could reward Angels backers today.
Quintana’s Big Numbers
The Angels counter with lefty Jose Quintana, who has been used almost like a short starter this season with 3+ to 5 innings per outing. And Joe Maddon desperately needs Jose to get through the 5th to kick that bullpen can as far as possible down the road. It continues to be a bottom-third unit as opposed to Boston’s top-tier group. Quintana is a quirky pitcher when you dig into his numbers. The guy gets 50.0% ground ball contact and has a massive 14.57 K/9 rate. But on the flip side, he has walked 8.14 BB/9 and yielded 26 hits in 21 innings on top of those free passes. Plus Jose gets hit hard (42.9%) and holds a staggering .424 BABIP. That screams regression to a degree, though the Red Sox have earned the league’s second-highest .313 BABIP for the simple fact that these guys are excellent hitters. Now they face a southpaw this afternoon, increasing the potential for another strong offensive showing with Boston’s production being about 10% better in this split (.283/.343/.454).
My raw number amounts to a 64% win probability for Boston. That does not leave much margin for error at a price above -160, especially with the strong chance that the Red Sox opt to rest a key cog or two. Then again, the Angels could do so as well. However, I contend that Boston resting a couple big hitters has a significantly greater impact compared to L.A. for the simple fact that the Sox are in much better form at the plate. With that risk in mind, I still like how this game sets up for the home team.
WAGER: Red Sox -155 (1/2 unit)
WAGER: Red Sox Run Line +120 (1/2 unit)
ALTERNATIVE: Red Sox -1 -125
I like Boston quite a bit, but as usual refuse to pay up. So I’ve manufactured another -1 run line with a half-and-half on their money line and the plus-money run line. You may find a straight up -1 at -125 which is a decent price on the front end – though you just don’t get the reward if the Sox cruise to a healthy victory. Enjoy the rest of your weekends and BOL!
Around the Horn
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