The worst thing about having to be an early riser is missing the late games and occasionally not seeing the evening contests get resolved. Last night, I missed Arizona’s big inning against Pablo Lopez and MadBum’s dominance that delivered me a loss. Also at that time, the White Sox punished the Twins’ bullpen on their way to a convincing victory over the Twins. But what I did get to see was Matthew Boyd’s gem against the slumping Kansas City Royals coupled with a hit train in the 4th that knocked out the Tigers’ nemesis, Brady Singer. It all led to a positive night that gives us a little momentum to lead off the MLB Morning Breakdown for 5-12-2021.
Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox (-140)
Despite losing Eloy Jimenez this spring and Luis Robert last week, the Chicago White Sox continue to do damage to pitchers week after week. And I am sure that you have heard that this team is even deadlier when facing left-handed pitching. That cat is really out of the bag after the White Sox put up a league-best 142 wRC+ against southpaws in the shortened 2020 season. Their .285/.364/.523 slash line and .887 OPS wreaked havoc last year, putting them right behind Detroit with the second-best batting average and OPS in this split. Interestingly enough, this tendency has been a strong suit of theirs for a few years now.
Chicago White Sox Weighted Runs Created (wRC+)
| vs. LHP | All | |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 137 | 110 |
| 2020 | 142 | 113 |
| 2019 | 106 | 92 |
| 2018 | 93 | 92 |
| 2017 | 107 | 95 |
| 2016 | 104 | 97 |
What is behind this recent surge? Our AL Central preview looked at how the Chicago front office had dramatically reshaped this roster in the years leading up to this outburst, as detailed in an excellent article by Zach Kram at The Ringer.
Step zero was reshaping the roster after significant house cleaning. Abreu and Anderson were retained, forming a small nucleus. Then internal prospects Luis Robert and Nick Madrigal – who were part of the organization for their entire careers – were joined by six more “external prospects” brought in via trades…
2021 AL Central Preview & Futures – BetCrushers.com – February 28, 2021
The position players included in the “external prospects” category include Yoan Moncada and the injured Eloy Jimenez. All of these guys have been stout against southpaws, feeding Chicago’s gaudy numbers. Oddly enough, Tim Anderson has has yet to get things going in terms of this tendency. Just compare last season’s .449/.509/1.000 slash line and 299 wRC+ to his limited work in 2021 (.235/.278/.235; 33 wRC+).
JA Happ (L) vs. D. Keuchel (L)
So when I say that you can damn near bet the White Sox offense blindly against left-handed starters, their lopsided numbers tell you about all you need to know. But what about tonight’s tough lefty veteran in JA Happ? Happ is cruising this season with a 1.91 ERA and 3.84 FIP, giving up no more than 2 runs in any of his five starts. He has neutralized left-handed hitters and held righties at bay (.182/.250/.325), although a .188 BABIP and 4.27 FIP/5.67 xFIP allude to him being somewhat fortunate in that regard.
Chicago offers a righty-heavy lineup that includes a pair of switch hitters in Yoan Moncada and Yasmani Grandal. Plus Denny Mendick has platooned effectively with Adam Eaton against southpaws (.333 AVG, 1 HR, 4 RBI). So something has to give when the White Sox offense and their .295/.370/.465 slash line and .358 BABIP vs. lefties square off against the stingy JA Happ tonight. My money is on things leaning in Chicago’s direction. After all, Happ has a career .250/.318/.423 versus right-handed hitters resulting in a 4.40 FIP/4.41 xFIP. That is not hateful by any means for a 38-year-old, though it is arguably more indicative of what to expect.
Applying Pressure to the Bullpen
The better question could revolve around how long JA Happ will stay in the game. Manager Rocco Baldelli needs another 7-inning gem out of him like the Cleveland and Pittsburgh outings. Otherwise, his ailing relief unit could be forced into another 3+ inning night like Tuesday. Minnesota’s rested bullpen coughed up 6 runs on 7 hits and 2 walks after Kenta Maeda left the ballgame in a 3-3 tie. Lefty reliever Caleb Thielbar had been one of their better-performing arms in recent outings but struggled through 41 pitches. Hmm, the White Sox punishing a southpaw – what are the odds?
Possible good news for the Twins is that their late-inning trio of Tyler Duffy, Hansel Robles, and Taylor Rogers are beyond rested and will get their chances to shut down the White Sox tonight. This could be easier said than done as the Twins’ relievers continue their recent trend as one of the worst-performing units over the past couple weeks, joining AL Central foes Detroit and Kansas City with their high-5.00s FIPs and mid-to-high 4.00s xFIPs. Like I said in yesterday’s handicap, streaks and trends are meant to be broken – though I’ll take my chances riding the White Sox offense against a lefty starter and scuffling bullpen for 5+ runs.
WAGER: White Sox Team Total Over 4 -130 (1/2 unit)
WAGER: White Sox Team Total Over 4.5 +105 (1/2 unit)
I am a realist in that JA Happ could very well be the stopper tonight, but there are too many indicators pointing toward another solid day at the plate for Chicago. My approach is to split this position into an over 4 run “safety net” and reach for a plus-money return with the over 4.5. This should be another good contest tonight – and you better believe I will be watching. Note: The MLB Morning Breakdown will take a break Thursday morning and be back for a full slate on Friday.
Around the Horn
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