We left off with a Friday night Solo Shot before the weekend hit and I headed west on the highway. The Mets bats had enough oomph to claim the team’s second win of the season, all while keeping the under alive in Cincinnati. With the weekend in the rear view mirror and a solar eclipse on its way, a decent slate of action leads to another Solo Shot in the MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-8-2024. BOL this week!
Seattle Mariners @ Toronto Blue Jays (TOR -118, 8)
Toronto’s squad finally gets some home cookin’ after starting off the 2024 season with series in Tampa Bay, Houston, and New York. That grueling schedule left them at the bottom of a cutthroat AL East with a 4-6 record – a mark shared by tonight’s opponent, the Seattle Mariners. Both squads are clearly not where they want to be, especially with stiff divisional competition. The Jays heard that loud and clear as the renewed Yankees put an exclamation point on the series with an 8-3 rubber game victory. Similarly, the Mariners come to town after a 12-4 defeat in their finale with Milwaukee. Something has to give…
Runs have not come easy for the Mariners so far. 31 runs are especially low given that the club is 10 games into the season, and look no further than their anemic slash line of .213/.276/.313. It’s slightly worse against right-handed pitching (.205/.263/.304, 31.6% K, 6.0% BB) – a less than ideal scenario facing Jose Berrios. Whether I’m way off the mark or these woes are temporary, my expectations for Seattle’s offense are about 20% higher. In terms of effectiveness against righties I’m about 30% higher. But .288 BABIP is mid-pack and doesn’t point to any statistical shenanigans. Simply put, this team isn’t hitting right-handers worth a lick at the moment.
SEA Key Left-Handed/Switch Hitters vs. RHP
| Line | BB% | K% | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canzone (L) | .174/.174/.435 | 0.0% | 39.1% |
| Crawford (L) | .100/.182/.200 | 6.1% | 21.2% |
| Polanco (S) | .188/.257/.281 | 5.7% | 37.1% |
| Raley (L) | .118/.118/.176 | 0.0% | 47.1% |
| Raleigh (S) | .227/.292/.227 | 8.3% | 33.3% |
| Rojas (L) | .375/.412/.438 | 5.9% | 23.5% |
Offseason acquisitions Jorge Polanco and Luke Raley haven’t quite gotten out of second gear. Either has the lineup’s centerpiece, Julio Rodriguez. Ironically, it’s been right-handed hitters Ty France – expected to return from the paternity list today – Mitch Haniger, and Mitch Garver showing signs of life. The tide will turn at some point. Today’s question is whether that happens against the tough Jose Berrios.
The Blue Jays offense also finds itself in a compromising position. Their overall .193/.299/.327 slash line is weighed down by a .176/.288/.290 line against righties short of my mark by about 15%. A .212 BABIP, 12.5% walk rate, and 22.2% strikeout rate say that better times are ahead. But like their opponent, squaring up against Luis Castillo does not help the cause. Positive regression may be on its way, except this series will also throw tough righties George Kirby and Logan Gilbert at them.
Key hitters George Springer and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. have produced low averages but decent slugging and on-base numbers. Well, maybe Springer more so than Guerrero. But the list of productive guys in the lineup against righties is a short one inclusive of platoon second baseman Cavan Biggio after the Jays dealt Santiago Espinal before the season. A total of 8 makes sense with the expectation for status quo combined with two aces on the mound.
L Castillo (R) vs. J Berrios (R)
On that note, the showdown between aces Luis Castillo and Jose Berrios should/could be a good one. Castillo scuffled in his first two starts, yielding a homer in each and 16 hits over 10.1 innings. That’s bad enough for a 6.75 ERA downplayed a bit by 4.21 FIP/3.25 xFIP. He’s producing ground balls and good command around the plate. So why such a fat ERA? A .424 BABIP is a partial explanation that flies directly in the face of Toronto’s .212 BABIP against righties. Something has to give this evening and I’m not in a great position to decide which yields to the other.
Neither Castillo nor Toronto’s Jose Berrios have gotten much swing-and-miss compared to usual. The Jays’ ace flipped from a commanding opener in Tampa Bay to a 3 BB/2 K outing in Houston combining for just 3 runs on 12 hits over 12 IP. That’s good enough for a solid 2.25 ERA with a 5.01 FIP/3.80 xFIP that is all over the place. If results stay true to form for both pitchers, Berrios and the Jays deserve to be a bigger favorite than -118. Working from preseason expectations for the starters and lineups, I completely agree with the market price for both side and total.
Teams On the Verge?
Niether bullpen has been spectacular to date. Granted, both are missing key high-leverage cogs that are crucial in the late innings of close games. Toronto righty Chad Green has been a lackluster substitute for the injured Jordan Romano, though Yimi Garcia is in tact as a quality setup man. Lefty Gabe Speier is available as the specialist for Seattle alongside righties Andres Munoz and Ryne Stanek who were thrust into more important roles after Matt Brash and Gregory Santos went down this spring. Live overs after the 6th innings could be in play for those who get down like that. Otherwise, I’m on the sidelines with this starting pitcher matchup unless some angle or prop pencils out as +EV.
Another handicap without a position is less than ideal for our readers, but it’s where I’m at. This is too interesting of a matchup not to break down though. That’s a wrap on the MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-8-2024 – enjoy the action and we’ll be back tomorrow.
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