Rain stuck around a little longer than expected Saturday in Boston, postponing our feature and creating a Sunday doubleheader that pushed the Red Sox into second place in the AL East. The MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-7-2025 heads to the desert where the last place Orioles and .500 Diamondbacks look to get back on track after both clubs dropped their weekend road series.
BALTIMORE ORIOLES @ ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS (ARI -125, 8.5)
Z Eflin (R) vs. Z Gallen (R)
Tonight’s Zach vs. Zac starting pitcher matchup is technically a #1 vs. #1 showdown by virtue of Arizona’s scheduling of Corbin Burnes’ 2025 debut. Considering Gallen’s gem at Yankee Stadium last week and Burnes’ stumbling in the early goings, one can legitimately argue that Zac is the true leader of the Snakes’ rotation. His 2023 peak paired a rock solid 3.47 ERA and 3.26 FIP/3.49 xFIP with 210.0 innings across 34 starts. A hamstring injury kept him out for about a month last season, interrupting another ace-quality campaign. 2022 set the stage for what to expect from him even though that breakout was aided by a skimpy .237 BABIP. These last two seasons have been straight up without much to pick at.
What we’ve seen and continue to expect out of Zac Gallen is mid-3.00s effectiveness via ground balls, enough whiffs to keep hitters honest, and a tick up in walks. The 29-year-old’s 13-strikeout outing against the Yankees is an outlier performance although he posted 10+ Ks three times last year and five times in that dazzling 2023 season. Aside from that, Gallen has been impervious to any true splits weakness. That is especially important against an Orioles lineup with a ton of flexibility between left- and right-handed hitters.
Z Gallen Handedness Splits (2023-2024)
| Slash Line | ERA | FIP/xFIP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| v. LHH | .235/.294/.393 | 3.65 | 3.65/3.42 |
| v. RHH | .240/.293/.367 | 3.45 | 2.99/3.65 |
| ALL | .238/.294/.380 | 3.54 | 3.31/3.54 |
Baltimore is slashing .266/.316/.455 against right-handed pitching in their first 10 games of the season. That isn’t a scorching start when compared to a handful of other squads that burst out of the gates. It is, however, a touch over our full season expectation as opposed to their slow ramp up against southpaws. With D-back lefty reliever Joe Mantiply likely unavailable tonight, co-closer AJ Puk could pose a big challenge for the O’s late if the game state accommodates. That said, Puk yielded a solo home run in each of his two appearances against the Yankees. Plus the Arizona relief unit as a whole has been decent to date (3.79 ERA, 2.72 FIP/2.59 xFIP).
Neither offense was particularly spectacular this past week, though Arizona had more pop as opposed to Baltimore’s BABIP-fueled batting average edge. Two factors should be considered when assessing the O’s offense. First, they played in less accommodating weather in Kansas City this weekend. And they just got back elite shortstop Gunnar Henderson after starting the season on the IL. He’s worth approximately 3-4% to the Orioles offense from an overarching measurement. Granted, he is an anemic 1-for-13 since returning and other key cogs like Adley Rutschman and Jordan Westburg have been very quiet lately.
How the Snakes Stack Up
Zach Eflin is a pure pitch-to-contact righty who profiles as a 5 K/BB guy by virtue of minimizing walks. So far, the command pitcher has been thumped harder than usual despite maintaining that solid ratio. Balls in the air and hard contact aren’t the best combination, especially last week at Fenway Park. The roof will be open at Chase Field which should play similarly to a closed-roof status given tonight’s conditions – according to this amateur meteorologist, anyhow.
Aside from this recent stretch of games, Arizona has smashed right-handed pitching so far this year. Corbin Carroll and Eugenio Suarez thumped 7 home runs against righties and six hitters have wOBAs greater than .400. A massive loss is elite second baseman Ketel Marte who is sidelined with a left hamstring strain. Prior to that, Ketel slashed .346/.469/.462 as their leadoff or two-hole hitter. He’s worth at least 5% to the D-backs in the big picture – more so given his early season form – considering the dropoff to Tim Tawa and Garrett Hampson. But is that loss enough to flip the advantage to the scuffling Orioles?
Baltimore’s bullpen hasn’t really been tested since the Boston series mid-last week. All things considered, they have been fine (3.47 ERA, 3.39 FIP/4.23 xFIP) though closer Felix Bautista hasn’t seen game action since last Monday. Will he be rusty or fresh? Both bullpens are generally in good shape in terms of usage and availability other than the aforementioned Joe Mantiply for Arizona.
WAGER: Orioles +109 (risked 0.5u)
I still have work to do with a few games on today’s slate, including this one. As of now, my position is only a half unit on the road dog at +109. But Zac Gallen is a tough customer for a lineup that isn’t firing on all cylinders. That’s my biggest trepidation when squaring up against an Arizona offense that has brutalized right-handers but finds itself without Ketel Marte. A lack of negative regression among the Snakes’ hitters for at least one more night will most likely squash this wager though. That’s sports betting in a nutshell!
2025 Featured Handicap Results
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