The new week began with two plays on Monday that banked on offensive eruptions from the Blue Jays and White Sox. Well, that’s what we got. Some confidence was restored when my doubts in Mike Foltynewicz’ rebound from a brutal season came true, leading to Toronto surpassing their team total by that run they couldn’t find against the Yankees on Saturday. As for the White Sox and their expected proficiency against lefties, that played out nicely in their 6-0 win over the Mariners. All good, as Monday’s Ws lead right into the MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-6-2021.
| Wins | Losses | Net Units | ROI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-5-2021 | 2 | 0 | +2.0 | +83.7% |
| SEASON | 5 | 5 | +1.34 | +14.1% |
New York Mets (-130) @ Philadelphia Phillies
New York’s delayed season opener started off on the right foot then came screeching to a halt. Things got shaky shortly after Jacob deGrom left the game. Ironically, two of the Mets’ newest bullpen arms – Trevor May and Aaron Loup – yielded 5 runs in the 8th inning and handed the game over to the Phillies. In contrast, the Philly bullpen was on point after Matt Moore exited the game in the 4th. My expectation for each team’s relief unit this season was improvement to a league-average or better level. Four games into the season and Philadelphia’s bullpen has a 0.00 ERA and 2.52 FIP with a 3-0 record. Not a bad start at all for this downtrodden group.
With very little to see from the Mets so far, I’ll turn to the Phillies and their slow start at the plate. Granted, the team is 4-0 – all against division contenders – so I can’t be too critical. Their starting pitching has been solid and guys under a lot of scrutiny like Hector Neris have been so far. Although Philly’s offense has lagged their macro targets by about 25% to date, most of the shortfall has come against lefties and not righties. Plus they’ve faced off against some tough starters including one of the game’s best yesterday – Jacob deGrom. So you have to expect their hitters to get rolling soon.
The Mets’ bats went to sleep after striking Matt Moore early last night. And a ton of credit is due to the Philly bullpen and their impressive work. But I don’t want to lose sight of the fact that this team hammers right-handed pitching. Dominic Smith, Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto, Luis Guillorme, Jeff McNeil, and Pete Alonso all crushed their splits last season to the tune of 30%-70% above average. Even though I have discounted the Mets offense for 2021 due to most of these guys overshooting their marks, they should be locked and loaded for Game 2 of their season.
M. Stroman (R) vs. C. Anderson (R)
Tonight’s rematch puts these potent offenses at odds with a pair of veteran righty starters. 33-year-old Chase Anderson makes his Phillies debut against a hungry lineup with a great mix of left- and right-handed hitters. He eased into the 2020 season with Toronto by making three short starts, yielding just 1 run in each. But once he stretched out to 4+ inning outings, teams like the Red Sox and Yankees really hit him hard. Then the Mets effectively knocked Chase out of the Blue Jays rotation on September 11th. He struck out 4 in 2-2/3 innings, but conceded 4 runs on 4 hits and 3 walks including a home run.
In my eyes, this game pretty much comes down to how dominant Marcus Stroman will be. Stroman’s Spring Training was impressive FWIW, striking out 17 batters as opposed to issuing just 2 walks. All signs point to Marcus returning from a missed 2020 season with a vengeance. Although I’m not sure how legit his new split-changeup pitch is, the 29-year-old has a diverse arsenal regardless of this new wrinkle. There is not much more I can say about Stro aside from him being a very effective ground-ball contact pitcher with 4.00 FIP talent at this point in his career. In the Stroman vs. Anderson head-to-head battle, my money is definitely on Marcus.
WAGER: Mets First 5 Innings -130 (Good to -140)
I want to capitalize on Marcus Stroman and the Mets’ overall strength against right-handed pitchers. That angle is even stronger against a lower-rung starter like Chase Anderson. Even though each bullpen should be improved this season – Philadelphia’s appears to be so already – New York should have an extra 5% advantage in the Stroman vs. Anderson face-off. If the juice is out of hand or you are forced to lay a hook on the first 5 inning bet, something like Mets team total over 4.5 is available this morning at -130. The main reason I migrated away from the team total is the availability of Hector Neris and Archie Bradley to squelch any late-game scoring attempts from New York. I’m not saying that the Phils’ bullpen will stay perfect for much longer, but it is a component I would rather avoid with a Mets position in this scenario.
Around the Horn
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