I took just one position on yesterday’s big slate – technically two half-unit bets on the Blue Jays team totals – and it flat out failed to get there. Close, but no cigar. Yet 3 runs is absolutely less than 4, so we move onto the MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-4-2021 with that loss in the rearview mirror. Happy Easter, folks!
| Wins | Losses | Net Units | ROI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | 0 | 2 | -1.12 | -100% |
| SEASON | 3 | 3 | +0.69 | +12.0% |
Texas Rangers @ Kansas City Royals (-175)
The Texas Rangers can’t be bad enough to get swept by the Royals, right? To be blunt about the subject, that’s the only thought that gave me any doubt to back Kansas City for a series sweep to start off the 2021 season. My raw handicap puts KC around a 68% chance to win this afternoon’s game, though there are several factors that add additional weight to this side.
One thing to consider is that both teams’ season statistics are way out of whack with their team profiles. The Royals’ and Rangers’ offensive production in the first two games have outperformed by 110% and 60%, respectively. And their BABIPs of .397 and .444, respectively, explain some of this short-run variance. After all, it is not wise to expect double-digit run production from the Royals today – or any day, for that matter. Even though both lineups are relatively scorching hot, I’ll stick with my modest 20 bps offensive production advantage for Kansas City over Texas.
Bullpens, Baby!
A key reason why an individual game is not a true independent trial is bullpen texture. Availability and management varies based on situation and personnel usage in recent games. Fortunately, these teams got a much-needed break after both bullpens put in a ton of work on Opening Day. As Spring Training progressed, I gauged the Rangers’ bullpen as having a slight edge over the Royals. But injuries to closer Jose Leclerc, Joely Rodriguez, et al flip-flopped that differential before Opening Day arrived. Note that both teams jump into new series tomorrow, so there will not be a rest day for these bullpens to catch a break.
In regard to raw bullpen usage in these first two games, each unit has pitched 10.2 innings. But the texture of each bullpen coming into today’s contest varies significantly. While Texas’ long relievers are back in play after working over 100 pitches on Thursday, manager Chris Woodward will be challenged with utilization of their high-leverage guys. Josh Sborz, John King, and Brett de Geus have all put in about 40 pitches between Thursday and Saturday. However, Ian Kennedy is available despite Matt Bush pitching yesterday.
Kansas City, on the other hand, used their relievers for only 55 pitches yesterday as opposed to Texas’ 75. Plus closer Greg Holland, setup man Scott Barlow, and veteran reliever Wade Davis have not pitched since the opener. So the Royals are in the catbird seat in regard to bullpen talent and availability this afternoon. This is a big reason why the full game wager is preferred over a first 5 inning play. Famous last words, eh?
J. Lyles (R) vs. B. Singer (R)
Today’s pitching matchup features journeyman righty Jordan Lyles against one of KC’s budding arms of Brady Singer. Lyles looks to redeem himself after an abomination of a season last year with the Rangers. It was the second season of his 9-year MLB career where he posted a negative WAR with an ERA and FIP over 5.00. There were some rumblings in Spring Training that Lyles was unhappy with having to try out for one of the four available rotation slots, though he did good enough to make the Opening Day roster. Although I am not sure whether that speaks more to Jordan’s rebound or it is an indictment of this rotation.
My main issue with Lyles is that I don’t think he showed enough this spring to push me off of my concerns. In the last two seasons, Jordan has struggled with the long ball and has been hit hard. Statcast data shows that he had a barrel rate over 7% and a hard hit rate over 40% in both 2019 and 2020. Regardless, I have to play him conservatively today and put him on 2-3 runs if he can power through 5 innings.
Building On a Rookie Campaign
Brady Singer, on the other hand, is a 24-year-old with upside. Although I do not put a lot of weight in Spring Training, you have to like the fact that he felt more comfortable in his four starts that resulted in a 2.65 ERA. This indicates to me that Singer enters this season with more confidence and experience compared to his rookie campaign in 2020. His career began with eight starts in which he stumbled quite a bit against good-hitting division foes Chicago and Minnesota. These rougher outings came primarily at home, so I haven’t put a lot of stock into his home/road splits quite yet.
But Singer was solid from his September 10th start at Cleveland through the rest of the season. Granted, three of those four starts came against middling offenses like Cleveland and Detroit. In fact, four of his last five starts of the 2020 season were sub-3.00 FIP/sub-4.00 xFIP performances. I’m not quite there with Brady yet, especially against a Rangers team that is hitting the ball better than expectation right now. Singer needs his changeup to work in conjunction with his fastball/slider combo if he wants to pick up the W today. He, too, is a 2-3 run candidate like his opponent though I shade him closer to the 2-run mark.
WAGER: Royals -170 (0.5 unit)
WAGER: Royals Run Line +105 (0.5 unit)
This is another 50-50 combination play that essentially works the Royals into a -1 run line position. But the viability of this wager depends on what price you can get on the money line. I see -170 all the way up to -190 in various accounts this morning. The goal is to limit your overall exposure to a combined -150 or better wager – a value that assumes a 60% win rate but pushes if the Royals win by a single run. Since plus money is still available on the traditional -1.5 run line, a small win is available if the Royals squeeze out a tight one. BOL today!
Around the Horn
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