Today’s MLB slate shrinks with wet weather peppering the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic for a second day in a row. So we’ll head west to find clear skies for a solo shot in the MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-30-2023. It felt good to be on the right side of Cincinnati’s late-game mojo for a change back on Wednesday as small ball went gonzo in the bottom of the 9th. Time to get back in the saddle and wrap the week up on a high note for our featured handicaps. BOL!
2023 Featured Handicap Results
CINCINNATI REDS @ OAKLAND ATHLETICS (CIN -150, 8)
And just like that, my Redlegs have ripped off 5 wins in a row to salvage some respectability in the first month of the season. Although my outlook for them is still tempered with mediocrity, at best, the sunny skies and stiff wind out to center in Oakland called out to me. There is something to be said about a couple of offenses quietly making some noise this week. But it won’t come easy as the A’s strength against left-handed pitching goes toe-to-toe with Cincinnati’s promising young lefty, Nick Lodolo.
N Lodolo (L) vs. K Waldichuk (L)
Lodolo’s calling card in year two of his MLB career is strikeouts, to make an obvious statement. His rookie campaign’s 29.7% strikeout rate is followed up by a 29.6% mark after five starts in 2023. But the results have not been falling his way. Case in point, Nick’s 4.92 FIP/3.49 xFIP gap reflecting a massive .471 BABIP. Positive regression is right around the corner, my friend. The question comes down to whether that plays out this afternoon against a surprising crop of hitters that have been quite effective against lefties.
OAK Hitters
| Slash Line | OPS | BB% | K% | wRC+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rooker | .333/.451/.727 | 1.178 | 17.1% | 19.5% | 225 |
| Perez | .351/.390/.486 | .877 | 4.9% | 22.0% | 152 |
| Noda | .242/.398/.439 | .837 | 20.5% | 34.9% | 148 |
| Langeliers | .233/.298/.488 | .786 | 5.3% | 25.5% | 120 |
| Laureano | .224/.308/.448 | .756 | 7.7% | 24.6% | 116 |
| Aguilar | .257/.312/.457 | .769 | 6.4% | 25.6% | 115 |
Two key things to note with all of this. First off, park-adjusted numbers adjust for the Coliseum’s pitcher-friendly nature – though weather should shave a few percent from this factor. Also, four of these key hitters have strikeout rates in excess of 24%. Four of them have walk rates below 8% as well. So there is a significant tug-of-war between Oakland’s strength to date against lefties and Lodolo’s prowess as a strikeout pitcher.
Flip to the other side of the starting pitcher matchup to find an inexperienced Ken Waldichuk staring down a relatively hot Reds lineup. Despite waiting until the 9th inning yesterday to break through with their 2nd & 3rd runs of the game, Cincy hit the ball hard early and often to no avail. Their .276/.361/.397 line, .342 BABIP, and disciplined 19.7% K rate in the trailing 7 day period speaks to their current form. Slash line components and BABIP are about 30 points higher this week while reducing strikeouts by about 5%. This will come to an end soon, but is today the day?
Tough Sledding For the Lefty
Ken Waldichuk’s second MLB season has been a trial by fire to say the least. Aside from his 5 shutout innings against the Cubs on April 18th, the 25-year-old yielded 3+ runs in his four other starts. Even in the Chicago outing, the 5.06 xFIP and 100% strand rate cast some doubt on his general effectiveness that night. Waldichuk has not channeled much swing-and-miss stuff to date and has posted a paltry 1.64 K/BB ratio on 15.1% K and 9.2% BB rates. That plays well into this Cincinnati lineup’s current form of being patient and striking while the iron is hot. Whether he succumbs to a fourth multi-home run outing has yet to be seen, though the Reds have not really been opportunists in this sense.
One positive mark on Waldichuk’s profile is working 5+ innings in four of five starts. This helps spare the Oakland bullpen from making too much of a mess this afternoon. 3-4 innings of their typical 6.00+ FIP performance is enough for manager Mark Kotsay. All three back end relievers – Acevedo, Jackson, and Familia – worked yesterday, though only Familia is likely to be restricted this afternoon. Pencil in Cincinnati’s unit for 3-4 innings of work as well, given Lodolo’s efficiency challenges this season. Good thing that the Reds’ relief unit has been quite decent to date and should have all hands on deck in case of a close contest.
WAGER: Over 8 -105 (1.575u)
The bats could run cold in both lineups, though the total of 8 is playable according to my projected range. Both defenses being bottom-half units helps the case for scoring as well. Another consideration is the A’s team total over 3.5 runs where +105 is available. And if Lodolo labors yet again in this start, the first 5 inning team total of 1.5 could get there quickly. It’s all about price with an overachieving lineup though. Plenty to think about with a game total ticket in hand and a few bucks waiting on the sidelines!
Heading for Home
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