When the Tigers failed to plate the tying run in the 5th yesterday afternoon, I thought of what could have been for my first 5 inning dog bet. Then the Twins piled on 4 more runs in the bottom half of the inning and that thought turned to “damn I got smoked on that one!” At least it was only a half-unit position. That’s about all I can say. Regardless, an L is an L and I have no choice but to slide right into the MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-29-2022. BOL this weekend!
NOTE: the Breakdown will be on break Saturday but back on Sunday…BOL!
2022 Featured Handicap Results
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES @ NEW YORK METS (-110)
A. Nola (R) vs. T. Megill (R)
The heat is on in Philadelphia after sweeping the Colorado Rockies in a four-game series at Citizens Bank Park. Now the Phillies visit the Mets to chip away at New York’s 4-game lead in the NL East. The Mets’ bats cooled off a touch on their recent road trip, slashing a modest .257/.320/.371 – a line nearly identical to Philly’s .254/.314/.382. How much influence did the Phils’ stronger splits against left-handed pitching have during this period? Consider that the Phillies slug .050 higher against southpaws and just faced three lefty starters in their last six games.
Regardless, I consider both lineups to be potent and explosive. Not that 50 degrees with a wind blowing in from left field is exactly conducive to a powerful display at spacious Citi Field. Adjusted for season to date, I still have the Mets being about 7% more productive at the plate. But Aaron Nola might have something to say about that. His 5.00 K/BB ratio would be even better if it weren’t for a 3-walk stumble in a rough outing against these Mets back on April 13th. Otherwise, Nola’s 4.27 FIP/2.92 xFIP speaks to a very strong baseline for the Philly ace. High strikeouts with few walks is a calling card of prime Aaron Nola, though what do you make of a .213 BABIP over his first four starts? Oakland and Milwaukee hitters struggled to reach base against him, but the .313 BABIP in Colorado and .333 against the Mets show some vulnerability.
Time For a Reality Check?
Mets’ starter Tylor Megill has made incremental improvements over his 2021 rookie season, as reflected by a strong 2.67 FIP/2.64 xFIP and 2.81 SIERA in four starts. Since nailing down a 5.1-inning win in Philadelphia on the 12th, things haven’t been as smooth for the 26-year-old. He coughed up 4 runs to the Giants then went to Arizona and gave up 2 runs in a deep outing that still resulted in a win. Like Nola, Megill has a borderline unsustainable .258 BABIP that will eventually rise given his profile as more of a contact pitcher when compared to his counterpart. As long as Tylor has command over his stuff tonight, the solid defense behind him should help keep runners off the base paths.
Consider the give-and-take between the Mets’ 5-7% offensive advantage and Nola being nearly 1/2-run better to FIP than Megill. That’s the key factor why I make the full game wager about 4% better for New York than a first 5 inning position. Aaron Nola giving way to 3+ innings of relief pitching is advantageous to the Mets even though the Philly bullpen has not been terrible (3.83 FIP/4.04 xFIP). New York’s day off yesterday certainly does not hurt their collective cause, plus it opens up Buck Showalter’s relief unit for any situation tonight. In the big picture, this has been a top-third unit that plays quite well into the strategic advantage of being the home team.
WAGER: Mets -110
Pinning this wager’s hopes on the success of the New York Mets bullpen sounds shaky, doesn’t it? Yet they shape up as nearly 3/4-run better than Philadelphia’s. This has slightly less effect than Aaron Nola’s edge over Tylor Megill, though the difference-maker in the numbers boils down to a slightly better offense and batting last in what should be a tough-fought division battle. I’ll certainly be tuning into this one as the NL East race heats up at chilly Citi Field.
CINCINNATI REDS @ COLORADO ROCKIES (-110)
H. Greene (R) vs. A. Senzatela (R)
Where Colorado has been much better than in my outlook, Cincinnati has been just as worse. The Rockies have fueled their production with a very healthy .425 SLG – a massive contrast from my Redlegs’ power numbers. Cincy has been the epitome of a gotta string a bunch of oddball shit together to score kind of offense. After just adding a little more weight to current season data, I was happy to find my blended park-adjusted offensive factors nearly matching the actual numbers for these two lineups combined. We all know that Coors Field is very hitter-friendly but the mid-50s temps and 20+ mph winds from left field pretty much cut the offensive park factor bias in half.
What about these starting pitchers? They’re fine. Hell, I love Hunter Greene being on my team. But he’s a 22-year-old rookie and all expectations must tempered by that simple fact. Greene’s stuff was dynamic in his first two starts, then the reality of Cincinnati playing the St. Louis Cardinals sucked the velocity and action out his repertoire. Okay, I’m not that superstitious – and I have to be prepared to face the reality of a 3- or 4-run outing against Colorado. That said, my baseline for Hunter is still influenced by his expected numbers (5.13 FIP/4.08 xFIP, 3.66 SIERA). Plus his counterpart Antonio Senzatela isn’t afraid to put the ball in play, testing the muster of the Reds’ small ball approach tonight.
Bullpens are pretty much meh. They’re not quite terrible – especially in the 2022 scoring environment – while also being borderline sketchy. The Rockies pen is ugly in terms of their 4.80 ERA but 3.73 FIP/4.21 xFIP is less pessimistic. Cincy’s unit pencils out similarly, though anything is possible with this team. The bottom line here is that Colorado home unders have been sneaky good so far in 2022 and the weather may oblige once again.
WAGER: [0.5u] Under 11 -115
Playing unders at Coors Field is not for the faint of heart. And for some reason I’m still only betting half units on totals despite them treating me well these first three weeks of the season. There are a couple 11s left out there this morning without having to pay more than -120. 10.5 is still playable by my standards considering that I make this in the 9 or 9.5 range. That’s my opinion anyhow and I’m backing it with cash.
CHICAGO CUBS @ MILWAUKEE BREWERS (-150)
K. Hendricks (R) vs. A. Houser (R)
Although I don’t feel like I have the greatest handle on this Chicago club quite yet, this is a spot where I shouldn’t overlook my process. It’s a bit of a gut check when one offense has exceeded my mark by 20% and the other lags by about 10%. Maybe this sounds crazy but I make Kyle Hendricks and the Cubs a -110 favorite on the first 5 inning line. Hear me out for a minute.
The Cubs were recognized by last night’s broadcast in Atlanta as essentially being a grindy ass team. Granted, they lost 5-1 to a tough Kyle Wright and some excellent defense by both clubs. Tonight they square off against Adrian Houser, who is backing up his 2021 10.7% BB rate with 10.9% this season. I’d say that is something that Chicago and their top-third walk rate can take advantage of. And, to boot, the Cubs boast a top-five slugging percentage in stark contrast to the Brew Crew’s bottom-third power. Providing Adrian with run support has been easier said than done at a 20% discount to the league average production rate.
Plus Houser’s open door is underlined by a 3.14 FIP/4.50 xFIP and 4.91 SIERA. Not that Kyle Hendricks should be let off the hook after allowing 7 walks in his first two starts. His 3.32 FIP/3.90 xFIP and 4.05 aren’t necessarily exceptional either. But I keep coming back to Milwaukee’s ugly .207/.281/.332 and saying, give me the dog! Hendricks could lay another egg like he did in Pittsburgh but I’ll play the percentages and back the live dog on the first 5 inning line.
WAGER: [0.5u] Cubs First 5 Innings +115
ALTERNATIVE: [0.5u] Cubs +130
Because the numbers leave me with a small amount of doubt – as should Kyle Hendricks for that matter – I’m limiting this to a half-unit position. The Cubs are arguably overachieving at the plate and in the bullpen so a slope of regression likely lies ahead. Hopefully they’ll wait until Saturday to begin that process and keep things tight early in this one.
Heading for Home
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