“Maybe Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez are breaking out of their slumps. Maybe it’s a mirage.” Perhaps I invoked just enough mojo in yesterday’s edition to get the Astros over the first 5 inning hump last night and cash our ticket. Certainly a sweaty one, but isn’t that the way we like it? I kid. The rocking chair winners are much better to watch. Regardless, the win gets our featured handicaps back to the season’s high water mark and rolls us right into the MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-28-2022…
2022 Featured Handicap Results
DETROIT TIGERS @ MINNESOTA TWINS (-140)
T. Skubal (L) vs. B. Ober (R)
This spot is kind of an ugly one. And if you’ve been riding along with me this season I completely understand why you’d take a step back and say “I don’t think so, JJ.” No offense taken if so. Today I am backing a Tigers offense that is in a bona fide slump after getting blanked 5-0 by the Twins. Plus there was that ugly walkoff loss the night before. Although Detroit has been trending in the right direction (L7 days: 93 wRC+; L14 days: 84 wRC+), some of this recent “success” is a product of facing a pair of left-handed starters in their last five games. Note that they’ve been about 40% better against lefties than righties. And now the Tigers square off against a very capable right-hander in Bailey Ober this afternoon.
Ober impressively shook off a 4-run season debut against a strong hitting Seattle Mariners club. His resume includes two outings in the meantime: 0 runs over 6.0 IP in Boston, 1 run against the White Sox. The peripherals have plenty to say as the 26-year-old improved his swinging strike rate by a couple % over his 2021 rookie campaign. Then again, Ober’s depressed 22.9% ground ball rate really hasn’t been punished in the early goings of the season – and today’s cold temps with a stiff breeze blowing in should not hurt Bailey’s cause. Hence the bookmakers’ hanging a 7 on this afternoon’s total. (If you’ve just recently started paying attention to totals around the league, consider yourself one step behind the books.) As a low-strikeout (20.3%), put it in play starting pitcher the depressed offensive productivity around the league has rewarded Ober with a .239 BABIP and 3.64 FIP/4.20 xFIP.
Where’s the Value?
The slumping Tigers bats aren’t going to crack Bailey Ober with .329 SLG in this weather. Or with this ball, for that matter. It’s a windy kind of day for these two clubs, leaving quite a bit to chance despite Minnesota taking care of business with a 133 wRC+ over the last week. The Twins lineup has been even keeled to date, hitting both righties and lefties well. So I can’t give them a clear advantage or disadvantage with Tarik Skubal on the bump. In fact, Skubal is the reason I am invested in this game. His 1.23 FIP/2.47 xFIP is appetizing but is also way below the sub-4.00 FIP baseline for the 25-year-old lefty.
Much like his counterpart, Tarik Skubal successfully shook off a 4-run season debut by rallying for 11.2 scoreless innings against Kansas City and Colorado. So far he has shaved 9% off of his hard hit rate and pumped up ground balls by 6% over 2021. Command over secondaries pitches has really cut down on free passes despite being slightly unlucky via a .340 BABIP. That said, I give Skubal a 1/4 run of FIP edge over Ober this afternoon. If this is to be a small ball affair, much of the offensive production against these starters will be left up to chance. With two above-average young starters getting the nod, the dog has a fighting chance somewhere in the 46.5% range – making +125 a rock-bottom price if you want to ride along with a first 5 innings wager.
Both bullpens have significant deviation from my expectation at this point in time. So that tells me to stay away from the 6th inning on. Detroit’s relief unit boasts a pretty solid back half, especially with Andrew Chafin in the mix. My main reservation with taking this one the full game is my outlook for each bullpen. And we’re starting to see their performance and underlying numbers trend towards convergence. I’d rather stick with these starters and ride out the frigid weather with a live dog.
WAGER: [0.5u] Tigers First 5 Innings +128
ALTERNATIVE: [0.5u] Tigers First 5 Innings +1/2 (-125)
This is a half-unit play for the simple fact that I snagged a +150 yesterday evening at DraftKings to start this position. With +128 being the best available number in my five accounts this morning, I stayed conservative and did not increase my stake in the Tigers first 5 innings. And to be fair to the readers I will grade this one at the best available +128 price as of publishing. BOL!
Heading for Home
Be sure to visit the MLB page at BetCrushers.com – your source for free handicapping insights into our daily baseball plays and season previews. Want us to deliver our newest content directly to you? Follow our Twitter feed or subscribe below for email alerts to stay in the loop. As always, BOL with your MLB wagers!
