The MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-25-2021 returns to the scene of yesterday’s…victory?!? With the Arizona/Atlanta rainout last night, Brady Singer’s gem pushed the Kansas City Royals to another divisional win and a much-needed W for my featured handicaps. Both Singer and Detroit’s Matthew Boyd were spectacular, though it was KC’s ability to manufacture a pair of runs in the 5th inning that provided the edge. Now for the next chapter…
Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers (+110)
To a degree, this is the same song but different verse as yesterday. Even though Saturday’s 2-1 pitchers’ duel marginalized both offenses, it was a microcosm of how these teams generate runs. Yesterday’s telecast spoke to Detroit’s reliance on the home run for around 55% of their runs – and Willi Castro did just that to plate their only run of the game. The downside to the Tigers relying on the long ball is that their 24 homers rank thirteenth in the majors, and their 66 runs scored is third from last. On the flip side, Kansas City coupled timely hitting with fielding miscues to break the ice and plate a pair.
The Royals have done a fantastic job of manufacturing runs with 18 stolen bases and a mid-pack 9.0% walk rate. Though they may not boast the type of power that top-tier teams present, Kansas City is methodically converting runners into runs.
MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-24-2021 – BetCrushers.com
Transitioning to Sunday
This afternoon’s affair calls for a nice, clear day with a decent wind blowing out – something that the home run-dependent Tigers really need. Their struggles against lefties, however, could throw a wet blanket on the whole operation. In just 159 plate appearances, Detroit has a league-low 47 wRC+ versus southpaws with a paltry .179/.245/.269 slash line. This was such a strength for them last year, though I noted in this year’s AL Central preview that Jeimer Candelario, Willi Castro, and JaCoby Jones were significant regression candidates. And so far, that appears to be the case. We also looked for a major rebound year from Matthew Boyd, but I digress.
After extolling the Royals’ strengths against left-handed pitching yesterday, all of that goes by the wayside with righty Michael Fulmer on the bump this afternoon. As opposed to the concentrated production against southpaws, Kansas City has a good core of Salvador Perez, Carlos Santana, Jorge Soler, and Michael A. Taylor with plus-production in this scenario. Salvy got the day off behind the plate yesterday as their designated hitter, so I am optimistic that he will be in the lineup again today. And that is key, considering that his 1.157 OPS against right-handed pitching is a huge lift to this club.
Almost an Off Day
One key benefit of Matthew Boyd working 8 innings and Brady Singer going 7 on Saturday is that both bullpens got a nice break. Kansas City used two of their back-end stoppers in Josh Staumont and Scott Barlow, while Detroit needed only Jose Cisnero in relief. Both bullpens have been in the league-average neighborhood this past week, which is a relief to Tigers’ manager AJ Hinch. His group has the highest ERA, FIP, and xFIP in the majors this season to the tune of about 1 run over my preseason expectation. They are still ripe for the picking, even if Detroit’s relief unit has held their own recently.
D. Duffy (L) vs. M. Fulmer (R)
The de facto day off for Detroit’s bullpen is very important in today’s competition. Michael Fulmer pitched 9 innings between the two starts in this bounceback season. I do not expect him to get past the 5th inning since AJ Hinch is treating him conservatively as he builds up to full strength.
Fulmer was initially only expected to work three innings at most, but his pitch count was low enough to stay in. That turned out to be a mistake, as the Pirates tagged him for three runs in the fourth inning. The right-hander had a 3.94 ERA, 0.81 WHIP and 15 strikeouts across 16 innings this season. Fulmer is still working up his pitch count — he threw 60 pitches Wednesday (40 strikes). He could start on short rest versus the Royals on Sunday, but he could be piggybacked again as he was against the Pirates.
Rotowire.com – April 21, 2021
So Hinch either leaves Fulmer in for the 5th or he has to tap the bullpen early. Unless Michael breezes through the top half of the Royals’ lineup twice, Kansas City should be in a very favorable position in innings five through seven. To date, the 28-year-old has increased his strikeout rate while slashing walks and home runs when compared to 2020. However, I am skeptical of his 0.81 WHIP and .186 average against because of a depressed .195 BABIP. The Royals don’t draw many walks anyhow (8.6%) and are second-best in the majors with a 21.7% strikeout rate. Once again, it comes down to KC’s methodology of putting the ball in play and manufacturing runs.
Quietly Producing
Fulmer’s counterpart, Danny Duffy has started his 2021 campaign on the right foot. The 32-year-old lefty is right on track with a healthy 3.17 K/BB rate and has yielded just 1 home run in 18 innings. My only hesitancy in calling for another lockdown performance from Duffy is how his super low 4.8% home run/fly ball rate is unsustainable – especially considering that the guy is hovering right around a 30% ground ball rate. He has given up a juicy 45.8% hard hit rate in his three starts after all. But I am not fully convinced that the Tigers are in the proper form to take advantage of a possible weak spot in Duffy’s game.
WAGER: Royals Team Total Over 4 -115
If you do not have access to offshore books that offer various team total options, it looks like the going rate is Royals 4.5 runs at plus-money. I am less enthusiastic about over 4.5 simply because you lose the push on 4 aspect of the position. This is a matter of choice, though Kansas City money line at -120 (Bookmaker.eu this morning) is another potential angle. Unless Detroit channels their mojo from 2020, it is not unreasonable to expect the Tigers to struggle against a lefty once again. These woes actually kept me away from playing this home dog but I would not be stunned to see the bats suddenly wake up considering all of the factors. The +110 price is too low for my preference.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves Follow-Up
Yesterday’s postponed Arizona/Atlanta game is planned to be the second leg of today’s doubleheader. Lines are not out for this contest at the time of publishing, but if Bumgarner and Smyly are listed as the starting pitchers I will be looking to the Diamondbacks team total again as handicapped yesterday. But I need to see that at least three of Kelly, Escobar, Peralta, and Calhoun are in the Arizona lineup before moving on a team total adjusted for a 7 inning competition.
Around the Horn
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