Saturday brought us some good news with a side of bad news in the form of a 1-1 split. Fortunately, the full-unit position on Dylan Bundy and the Twins first 5 innings cruised to the finish line. On the other hand, Toronto and Houston failed to deliver a single run in innings two through five and left me high and dry on the half-unit total. That’s the breaks and we roll into the MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-24-2022 with a little more in the bankroll and a Sunday Solo Shot on deck. I have smoked meat, baseball, and the GEICO 500 at Talladega ready to roll on the patio this afternoon, so BOL and enjoy!
2022 Featured Handicap Results
BOSTON RED SOX @ TAMPA BAY RAYS (-165)
R. Hill (L) vs. S. McClanahan (L)
Last Monday’s Breakdown targeted Tampa Bay’s young fireballer against the Cubs in what turned out to be a sloppy team effort at Wrigley Field. That same “styles makes fights” perspective on today’s starting pitching matchup applies in a nearly identical situation – at least when it comes to the Rich Hill/Shane McClanahan pairing. Shane’s outing in Chicago was nearly flawless short of an early Patrick Wisdom 2-run homer: 6.0 IP, 9 K, 0 BB. The Cubs’ low strikeout rate going into that game was totally disregarded by McClanahan, who faces that general scenario with the Red Sox this afternoon. And when it comes to facing left-handed pitchers, these two teams have been night and day in the opening weeks of the 2022 campaign.
Team Offenses vs. LHP, Season to Date
| AVG | OBP | SLG | wRC+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | .227 | .298 | .345 | 88 |
| TBR | .272 | .338 | .412 | 131 |
Although the Sox throw Rich Hill in opposition, I see reports that Tanner Houck will piggyback the start with the 42-year-old veteran. So I had to evaluate different scenarios into my handicap ranging from 3 to 5 innings out of Hill before Boston goes to the right-hander. Houck gives his team about a 1-run edge of FIP over Hill but how much damage can the Rays do before he exits? Despite a 5.64 FIP/5.35 xFIP in his two starts, I hold Rich to a number just under 5.00 FIP out of some level of respect. Their coaching staff likely understands the significant dropoff between the veteran’s first time through the order compared to the second – another consideration behind the shared effort approach with Houck this afternoon.
Finding Middle Ground
This is a situation where the handicap moderates the two offenses by blending my expected range with each lineup’s performance to date. Even then, Tampa Bay holds a 6% offensive productivity edge against lefties over Boston. Once Hill is pulled from the game, Houck significantly diminishes this handedness split into the Rays’ .229/.300/.376 slash line with 107 wRC+ against righties. Still not bad – and it’s right there with my macro outlook for them against right-handers this season.
Yet that’s only one side of the argument. Boston runs their decent 23.0% strikeout rate vs. lefties into the buzzsaw known as Shane McClanahan. The hospitable conditions of Tropicana Field certainly help the lagging Red Sox offense. But is it enough to overturn McClanahan’s high-ground ball, 4+ K/BB ratio profile that is good enough for a mid-3.00 FIP target? It may not help that one of three Boston hitters who have been successful against lefties this season may not be in the starting lineup again today: JD Martinez. His 215 wRC+ with this split is second-highest on the team alongside Kike Hernandez (240) and Rafael Devers (141). And the latter is a guy you certainly do not want to overlook.
There is a lot in favor of Tampa Bay and Shane McClanahan, hence the large price on both full game and first 5 inning wagers. I’ll ride with the hard-throwing lefty once again with an understanding that Boston is chomping at the bit to break out offensively. Don’t overpay if you agree, though I am also not the biggest fan of losing on a tie score at the end of the 5th inning. That’s gambling for you!
WAGER: Rays First 5 Innings -1/2 (-113)
ALTERNATE: Rays First 5 Innings -160
I’m taking a targeted approach with an additional 7% of EV via first 5 inning wager over the full game. You can chalk up most of that falloff to more equal footing once the game goes to the bullpens. Plus Boston conserved most of their relief corps in last night’s extra-innings battle, as compared to the Rays working a bullpen game following JP Feyereisen’s 2-inning opener. To me, this is about riding the left arm of Shane McClanahan and the Rays’ scratching out a few runs while Rich Hill is on the bump. Then Tampa Bay’s edge begins to diminish so I’m fine with laying the half-run on the first 5 inning line. It’s not my favorite thing to do, but there’s a lot of stuff in life that requires us to just grin and bear it.
Heading for Home
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