Baseball is a game of sequencing. Offenses need to string together hits and walks to convert baserunners into runs. Batteries must sequence pitches to set up batters for optimal results. And handicappers like us have to get ahead of angles to capitalize on attackable prices. I am taking my lumps lately with my featured handicaps, yet you keep coming back to read this mess. So I truly appreciate you returning to the scene of the crime. Without further delay, it’s time for the MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-23-2021!
Oakland Athletics @ Baltimore Orioles (-127)
Here’s another prime example of riding the wave while potentially being late to the party. Oakland takes their show on the road after chaining together 7 straight wins in the Coliseum and 11 overall. Honestly, the way that the A’s won some of those games is indicative of a team that is playing with house money. The problem is that the lights go off at some point. As far as I am concerned, tonight is not the night – famous last words, right? But a really good conversation with PhillyPsPicks and MikeBarrera on Twitter helped flesh out some thoughts on this matchup.
Oakland’s 145 wRC+ over the last two weeks is the best in the majors, as is their .501 slugging percentage. Plus six of their mainstays have exceeded the 160 wRC+ mark in that time period. Olson, Moreland, Brown, Lowrie, Canha, and Murphy are all mashing. However, Jed Lowrie and Mark Canha have achieved this with .414 and .360 BABIPs, respectively, so the knife of regression dangles overhead. The Athletics have feasted on fastballs and sliders while holding small positive marks against other secondary pitches. Simply stated, this team is swinging a hot bat. Outside of Freddy Galvis’ hot streak over the past 7 days (.529/.556/1.000, .471 ISO, .615 BABIP), the O’s have struck out in 27.7% of their at bats and have a collective .145 ISO while slashing .218/.276/.363). But this club returns home to Camden Yards where their .297/.385/.681 and 95 wRC+ alludes to a favorable situation for Baltimore.
Both teams had yesterday off, so each squad should be fielding their best lineups and their strongest relievers are available depending on the game’s context. And in that regard, both relief units have been significantly better than expectation this season – and especially so with Oakland’s bullpen over the past couple weeks. I give a slight edge to Lou Trivino, Jake Diekman, and the Athletics, but don’t sleep on how effective Baltimore’s middle relief has been lately. And their closer, Cesar Valdez, is no slouch.
C. Irvin (L) vs. J. Lopez (R)
Jorge Lopez has relied on his fastball this season more than in recent years, which makes sense considering his velocities are near his peak. The problem is that he has yielded 5 home runs in 13.2 innings and the Athletics’ 25 homers put them in the top third of this category. Plus Oakland’s 22 long balls in the past two weeks are tops in the majors. Lopez must repeat his 8 strikeout performance against Texas to survive these hot bats and limit the damage. That is a tough ask, though, as the A’s come in with a reasonable mid-pack 24.2% strikeout rate on the season. With the visitors being so dialed in at the plate, it is difficult for me to envision Lopez escaping with less than 3 runs this evening.
But it takes two to tango, and Cole Irvin has not been great. Irvin’s lone road start was disastrous, giving up a pair of homers and 4 runs on just 5 hits. Strikeouts are not his game and Cole has been hit hard this season. He is a fastball-heavy lefty who has tuned up his slider-curveball-changeup repertoire – but that fastball has not been as sharp as he would like. Fortunately, the Orioles do not platoon well against lefties and were dominated a couple days ago against Miami’s Taylor Rogers. That said, Cole Irvin is far from Rogers’ level and I do expect the O’s to have some success even with switch hitter Anthony Santander on the shelf.
WAGER: Athletics -127 (1/2 unit)
WAGER: Athletics Run Line +117 (1/2 unit)
This is a spot where I’m getting greedy with no regrets. Oakland could very well fall flat against an exploitable pitcher – which has been the story of my last week or so – but a collective group of hot bats all bottoming out has a low probability. -130 or shorter is a fair price on the money line, though I’m cutting that with a crack at the plus-money run line. You get the feeling that the oddsmakers expect that knife of regression to fall on the A’s tonight, yet I’ve positioned myself squarely underneath it. Ride the wave, baby!
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves (-175)
L. Weaver (R) vs. H. Ynoa (R)
Leave it to the red-hot Arizona Diamondbacks to smoke my Cincinnati Reds this week. Rain, snow, wind – whatever the conditions, Arizona continued to mash against terrible bullpen play from Cincy. David Peralta, Carson Kelly, and Eduardo Escobar took advantage of the Reds’ weaknesses and thrived. Tonight they face 22-year-old Huascar Ynoa, who cruised in his first two starts before the Cubbies lit him up with 3 home runs. Guess what? Arizona smashed 8 homers in the past 7 days while hitting just .229 with a 27.0% strikeout rate.
Ynoa holds the key to Atlanta’s success – or failure – tonight. Considering that Huascar struck out 20 and walked just 3 in his 15 innings pitched as a starter, he can afford to yield a homer if the bases are kept relatively clear. It worked against the less-prolific offenses of Washington and Miami, but the 7 hits registered by the Cubs last weekend made him pay the price. And the wind was blowing in at Wrigley, so no excuses there. What is the takeaway from that start’s 11.10 FIP/3.50 xFIP grade? Arguably that bloodbath was a blip in this young man’s progression as a big-league starter.
His counterpart Luke Weaver has had an up-and-down season with a dominant 7-inning, 1-hit, 8-strikeout performance against the Reds in Phoenix. But that was sandwiched in between a couple rough outings in Colorado and Washington, where 4 homers and 12 hits led to 7 runs in 9.2 innings of work. Weaver does not have historically significant home/road splits, though he appears to be picking up where he left off in 2020. I give a slight nod to Luke over Huascar tonight, though the difference is the more complete lineup of Atlanta who has a number of strong bats currently in a groove.
The Difference Makers
Both bullpens are operating in the vicinity of league average in recent weeks, though the Braves rested on Monday and Thursday. Arizona’s relievers worked a ton in their chopped-up series in Cincinnati and should realistically be at a disadvantage simply because of availability and/or fatigue. Offensively, the Braves have held their own without Ronald Acuna, Jr. the last couple games – putting up a respectable 117 wRC+ over the past 7 days with 33 walks paired with just 37 strikeouts. Acuna could be back in the lineup tonight but if not, switch hitter Ehire Adrianza has been very good filling in since the Chicago series (.294/.318/.647, 130 wRC+). More chalk – yeah, I know. Call me the Ice Man if we can’t get today’s positions paid out…
WAGER: Braves -1 Run Line -127
Around the Horn
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