The MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-22-2025 returns after getting back into the groove of non-vacation life. I kept the handicapping wheels in motion while spending a week in San Diego. Now I’m caught up with everything after the Easter holiday and a hectic Monday. Time to hop back into the writeup saddle with a big divisional showdown between two NL East frontrunners.
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES @ NEW YORK METS (PHI -135, 8)
C Sanchez (L) vs. G Canning (R)
The series opener was intense as expected, especially if you had a side or total position riding on it. Tylor Megill pitched well enough to hand off a 2-0 lead to the Mets bullpen that thwarted a couple Philadelphia rallies – until the 9th inning, naturally. It was one of those situations where I had to leave the room once Bryce Harper came to the plate after Bryson Stott’s 3-run blast drew them within 1. Although the Phils fell short of a mammoth comeback, Aaron Nola’s deepest outing of the young season (6.1 IP) spared the club’s ailing bullpen from another heavy workload. On the flip side, the Mets scrambled to get closer Edwin Diaz into the fray after Max Kranick could not hold a 5-run lead in the final frame.
New York has its righty/lefty setup pair of Ryne Stanek and AJ Minter ready to roll along with intermediary bulk arms depending on how starter Griffin Canning fares. The former Angel is operating better than his career baseline in his first four starts with the Mets (3.43 ERA, 3.71 FIP/3.64 xFIP). The conflicting aspects of his game leave a lot in the air, notably an 11.4% walk rate that can be troubling against a Phillies lineup taking free passes against righties at a 12.0% clip. Note that 6 of Canning’s 8 earned runs came in starts where his K/BB ratio was less than 2:1.
Will the Bats Have Their Say?
Both offenses are operating at a high level over the trailing 7-day period. Philadelphia (.283/.372/.430) has been very patient with getting men on base while New York (.265/.313/.474) relies more on their power hitters to drive in runs. Granted, 8 of the 9 runs scored last night came via 3 homers. Griffin Canning so far has avoided home runs at a rate nearly half of his career mark. Some of that is a small sample issue, though early-season weather and a massive 53.6% ground ball rate have much to do with it. Canning is yielding hard contact at a 52.6% rate, pointing to a break in the dam at some point. We saw this in West Sacramento a couple weeks ago when the Athletics touched up their former divisional foe for 4 runs on 7 hits.
Bryson Stott’s and Francisco Lindor’s bombs last night came with temperatures about 20 degrees lower than tonight’s forecast. The difference with wind and humidity from one evening to the next provides a neutralizing factor though. In other words, Citi Field is generally playing neutral in this series. Fellow ground ball pitcher Christopher Sanchez has been excellent in 2025 after kicking down the door last season. Tons of swings-and-misses and strong command of a superb three-pitch mix is producing a 2.96 ERA and 3.61 FIP/2.55 xFIP. Plus Sanchez has incrementally gone deeper into each of his four starts. One thing of note with Philly’s 28-year-old southpaw are the home/road splits going back to his phenomenal 2024 campaign.
C Sanchez, Home/Road Splits (2024-2025)
| IP | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP/xFIP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 128.0 | 25.4% | 4.2% | 2.39 | 2.72/2.64 |
| Road | 78.0 | 16.1% | 8.2% | 4.73 | 3.64/3.89 |
| TOTAL | 206.0 | 21.5% | 5.8% | 3.28 | 3.07/3.11 |
It’s not uncommon for pitchers to perform better on their home turf as opposed to hostile territory. Sanchez’ only road start this season came against the Cardinals who mustered a single run on 8 hits over 6.1 innings. Operating on the road pulls my outlook for the left-hander more in line with his low/mid-3.00s expectations for 2025. The Mets’ lackluster performance against lefties to date coincides with the market’s dog price tonight. Their relative weakness against a tough starter and a Philadelphia offense exhibiting great plate discipline will give the NL East leaders all they can handle. Is it worth laying -135 on the road? I can’t get there with that number. Then again, is +115 enough to back a yet-to-regress Griffin Canning? That’s the trouble…I’m in no-man’s land at the moment with this one.
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