A little too much “excitement” at the day job kept me away from a midweek Breakdown. Fortunately, the new week kicks off with a pretty chunky Monday slate to break down. Without a ton of strong feelings on today’s contests, we’ve dialed up an interesting Solo Shot in the MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-22-2024. BOL!
Baltimore Orioles @ Los Angeles Angels (LAA -120, 8.5)
The thriving 14-7 Baltimore Orioles head further west to face a reeling Los Angeles Angels club that returns home from a tough weekend in Cincinnati. L.A. should be more than happy to get back to California after a 4-6 road trip sunk their record down to 9-13. Things do not get much easier with the Orioles in town though. The O’s are on a nice 7-3 run that includes a sweep in Minnesota and a series victory against a surging Royals club. So why are the Angels favored in this contest?
A Suarez (R) vs. R Detmers (L)
Look no further than starting pitcher Reid Detmers. How much stock do you put into the Angels’ former #1 prospect’s fantastic start? The 24-year-old lefty has expectations to take a step forward after two straight 2+ WAR campaigns as a regular member of the Angels rotation. Strikeouts continue to climb from 22.6% in 2022 to 26.1% last year. To date, Detmers holds a whopping 34.9% K rate with a strong 14.6% swinging strike rate. Ground balls are up and hard contact down. What’s not to like with the southpaw – other than his opponent?
The lack of long balls hit against Detmers is the inevitable other shoe to eventually drop. Respect is due to his 1.19 ERA and 1.62 FIP/2.64 xFIP. But he faces an O’s lineup that has struck out a modest 22.9% clip against lefties with a .271/.326/.422 line. Manager Brandon Hyde jams his lineup with platoon bats like Jorge Mateo, Ramon Urias, and Austin Hays to join punishing hitters Adley Rutschman, Anthony Santander, Ryan Mountcastle, and Jordan Westburg. It’s no wonder why they’re a top ten group against lefties.
Selected BAL Hitters vs. LHP (2024)
| BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wRC+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A Rutschman | 6.5% | 12.9% | .414 | .452 | .655 | 226 |
| J Mateo | 5.6% | 38.9% | .353 | .389 | .588 | 185 |
| J Westburg | 13.6% | 22.7% | .333 | .429 | .500 | 178 |
| R Mountcastle | 13.8% | 13.8% | .320 | .414 | .520 | 177 |
| C Cowser | 0.0% | 30.0% | .300 | .300 | .600 | 160 |
| A Santander | 3.8% | 26.9% | .261 | .308 | .565 | 147 |
| R Urias | 0.0% | 0.0% | .333 | .333 | .417 | 120 |
Notable absences from this list include Gunnar Henderson and Cedric Mullins – understandable as left-handed hitters – and platoon bat Austin Hays. Reid Detmers will have his hands full with Baltimore’s talented bats regardless. Granted, the southpaw made his season debut in Baltimore, yielding a solo homer, 7 K, and 3 BB en route to one of three wins to date. Can he replicate that lockdown performance tonight?
The other question for the market favorite is whether Detmers will get run support. Scoring 6 runs in the Cincinnati series – 5 of which came in a single game – is a sore subject for the Angels. Their righty-heavy lineup is slashing .231/.298/.361 against right-handed pitching with Mike Trout (.263/.333/.645, 8 HR) leading the way, just like old times. Catching tandem Logan O’Hoppe and Matt Thaiss have hammered righties as well. Otherwise, platoon bat Mickey Moniak and company lag the league average by 8% in offensive production on this side.
The Wild Card: Albert Suarez
There’s something to be said about sticking with it. 34-year-old Albert Suarez is a good example after a long minor league career and a couple seasons in the KBO. Baltimore signed the right-hander this offseason after pitching 121.1 innings for the Giants going on ten years ago. Mid-to-upper 4.00s expectations give the beleaguered Angels lineup some hope for a rebound this evening. The Twins found themselves in a similar spot last week to suddenly become productive against Suarez. Instead, Albert notched 5.2 innings of 3-hit, 0-run ball.
Suarez boasts good command throughout his varied career, including three minor league starts this season. 17 strikeouts versus 1 walk in those 15.1 innings translates to a scenario where the L.A. hitters are not in a position to sit back and be patient. Especially given how Albert yielded 5+ runs in two of his three Triple-A outings before shining in his call-up against the Twins. The door should be open for the Angels to take advantage, right?
Bullpen edge clearly goes to the Orioles in terms of both availability and effectiveness. With the exception of lefty Danny Coulombe, Baltimore’s well-stocked bullpen is ready to jump in for Suarez and keep the squad in the mix. Similarly, Los Angeles has all of their options except for Jose Cisnero available for relief duty. They lag the O’s group by a minimum of a half run, however. Even money for a rock-solid Baltimore team in this spot seems cheap, doesn’t it?
Who Wants To Take a Shot?
Detmers should drift towards the 4.00 benchmark through May – and tonight’s contest could accelerate that motion. The same case, if not stronger, can be made against handicapping another strong outing by Albert Suarez as well. My numbers straddle both the money line and total in this one almost perfectly. There’s plenty of baseball left to attack this season, so I’m fine sitting back and watching these two pitchers navigate this duel. This takes a strong conviction to back one side or the other in my opinion. Which side are you on?
2024 Featured Handicap Results
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