It’s a good day for a Friday edition of the MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-22-2022 fresh off back-to-back feature winners. That may be a low bar, but it’s my bar and the money is moving in the right direction after two weeks into the season. Carlos Carrasco’s 7.2-inning gem got the Mets ticket to the finish line and keeps our early ROI north of 20%. Again, that’s well above a reasonable full-season expectation but I’d rather start high and (hopefully) glide into the fall with a nice profit. One day at a time though as we enter week three.
2022 Featured Handicap Results
NEW YORK METS @ ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS (+110)
D. Peterson (L) vs. Z. Gallen (R)
Trust me, I can remember the whoopin’ that this Diamondbacks team put on David Peterson last year at Chase Field. They ran him off the mound after 5 runs and a single out in the 1st inning. It cleared our team total 3.5 & 4 bets with ease – you know, one of those times where your wagers get resolved before the game truly gets going. Arizona was deadly against lefties last year and Peterson had a ton of ups-and-downs, including another brutally short start against them earlier in ’21.
What makes tonight any different? For starters, Ron Darling seems to like what David Peterson has done to be better prepared this season. And this idea of him bouncing back from a sophomore slump gives me greater confidence in low-to-mid-4.00 FIP projections for the 2022 season. If it is any barometer, the lefty contact pitcher has been decent in his two short starts so far. Ground balls and softer contact helped him slay the Arizona beast on Sunday – well, at least for 4.1 innings he did. Signs of his slider coming back to life are very positive given how this key secondary pitch really let him down in 2021.
Cracking the Young Starters
Which offense has the muscle to crack the opposing starter tonight? My general outlook for this Diamondbacks lineup was simple: very decent against lefties, much lighter against righties. Yesterday’s pounding of Nats’ southpaw Josh Rogers boosted Arizona’s 28 wRC+ against left-handers this season up to 60. And there’s plenty of room for improvement on the horizon. Peterson could have his hands full if this D-backs team is finding their groove – just like last June. My handicap for tonight’s game factors in quite a bit of upside for them in this situation, especially at home.
On the other hand, the Mets offense started the season well beyond expectations offensively – specifically against right-handers. Even after bringing their current year metrics back closer to my projections, the New York lineup presents a 15% edge over Arizona’s. I don’t expect Zac Gallen to be a pushover, however. He pitched a solid 4.0 innings in his only start of the season in a D-backs 3-2 win over these Mets last Saturday. The low-4.00 FIP righty stymied the Mets with a well-commanded fastball/changeup combo and there’s no reason to count out a repeat performance. We’ve seen Gallen dial in as a ground ball contact pitcher who can be susceptible to hard contact. Both starters have the potential to stifle opposing hitters tonight, though it is highly doubtful either goes past the 5th inning.
New York’s significant offensive discrepancy aside, I give Gallen the slightest edge in a head-to-head comparison over Peterson. But once they hand the ball back over to the skipper, the Mets’ bullpen gives the team a solid half-run advantage. Neither relief unit is overworked per se either. This price really wants you to lay it with the Mets and I do not disagree. Full game offers about 2% more of EV over a first 5 inning wager, though I don’t hate that approach. My respect for Gallen and Arizona’s lineup against lefties makes -133 about the highest I would comfortably play New York before seeing the lineup cards.
WAGER: [0.5u] Mets -126
WAGER: [0.5u] Mets -1.5 (+125)
ALTERNATIVE: Mets -126
I’m rolling with a manufactured -1 in this one. -126 or even -130 offered this morning is not a terrible lay, though my handicap separates this matchup into two separate outcomes: an Arizona win similar to last Saturday or the more likely dominant victory by the Mets. I push on a close New York win but as a tradeoff lay -113 to win +112.5. Seems good to me. Just lay the number if you don’t want the push.
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS @ CINCINNATI REDS (+100)
S. Matz (L) vs. H. Greene (R)
As much as I hate betting against my team, my team stinks. Then again, the Cardinals shouldn’t really be scaring anyone other than left-handed pitching right now. And it would be foolish to discount what rookie fireballer Hunter Greene brings to the table in his third MLB start. Don’t forget that St. Louis was just blanked by one of my favorite pitchers Pablo Lopez and the Miami Marlins. Much like the Mets/Diamondbacks offensive disparity, the Cardinals offer close to a 20% bump in production over the Reds tonight without adjusting for specific starting pitchers.
This wide gap is partially a product of Cincinnati’s injury situation. Tyler Stephenson and Jonathan India – two of the Reds’ three bona fide hitters on the roster – are on the IL along with Donavan Solano and Tyler Naquin, amongst others. Their being shorthanded plus St. Louis’ small edge in the bullpen is more than enough to warrant being a road favorite. Lefty Steven Matz presents the Reds with a brutal split that only solidifies the Redbirds’ starting pitching advantage. Again, I am very high on Hunter Greene and will not be surprised if he holds the opponent at bay with another solid 5-inning outing. And if there’s ever a time for the Reds to break out of a massive slump, it would be at home against one of their most hated rivals. But I bet with the numbers, not my heart.
WAGER: Cardinals -120
Heading for Home
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