Thursday’s short MLB slate kept me on the sidelines after a nice Wednesday run featuring the under in Detroit. Three weeks into the season and some teams have shown their true colors while others are still beating around the bush. That makes for very interesting early season handicapping! After a long week, Friday is finally here and I’m ready to tee up the weekend with a frigid solo shot in the MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-21-2023. BOL!
2023 Featured Handicap Results
WASHINGTON NATIONALS @ MINNESOTA TWINS (MIN -210, 7.5)
The price on this interleague battle says a lot. Despite Minnesota’s slow start to the season offensively, the Nationals lineup has not been stellar by any stretch of the imagination. The Twins return home to a cold Target Field with a slim lead in the AL Central over the Guardians, while the Nats wrestle with the Phillies for last place in the NL East. If there’s any trajectory with these offenses to lean into though, it is negative. And the cold weather tonight is certainly not going to help them break out of it.
WAS & MIN Trailing 7 Day Offensive Statistics
| AVG | OBP | SLG | BABIP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSN | .247 | .294 | .339 | .290 |
| MIN | .191 | .267 | .345 | .240 |
While I’ll argue that both offenses have upside compared to where they are now, turning things around may be a challenge in tonight’s conditions. What is of particular interest is Minnesota’s super low BABIP in the trailing 7 day period. Is that a sign of pending near-term improvement compared to Washington’s in-line mark? Perhaps, though credit is due to a handful of Nats position players making headway this season. Between Jeimer Candelario’s bounceback campaign and the strong performances from young bucks Keibert Ruiz and Luis Garcia, the Nationals have been clawing their way towards modest expectations for 2023.
One thing that should not go unnoticed is the Twins defensive prowess showing out in the early goings. Their top five marks are outpacing Washington’s bottom third group, as expected. My main concern this evening is how Rocco Baldelli may handle his lineup in light of key players Carlos Correa, Max Kepler, and Jose Miranda not having an off day since Monday. The Nats’ having rest days on Monday and Thursday afford Dave Martinez the ability to essentially run the same lineup out every day. So all hands should be on deck for the visiting team.
T Williams (R) vs. T Mahle (R)
If you rely on ERA to gauge starting pitchers, Trevor Williams might be the guy for you in this one. The 30-year-old righty stifled the Rockies and Guardians after taking his lumps against the Rays to start his season. As a contact pitcher who has not been missing a ton of bats in his first three starts, Trevor has benefitted from uncharacteristically-weak contact with a broad arsenal. Will he keep that rolling against a Twins lineup with one of the highest strikeout rates this season (26.1%) and this past week (29.4%)? Or will he help them get right tonight?
Flip to 28-year-old Tyler Mahle and his wacky early-season numbers. He’s given up 4 runs in each of the last two starts – only 2 were earned against the Yankees – via three long balls in those contests. Will the near-freezing temps help keep the ball in the park? It certainly won’t hurt. Big picture expectations for these two starting pitchers give Mahle anywhere from a 1/4 to a 1+ run advantage to FIP. Tonight’s scenario plus current form puts them closer to the quarter-run differential, though predictive metrics like xFIP and SIERA point toward the 1+ run gap manifesting sooner than later. Tyler Mahle’s return to hard contact after a strong 2021 season has not been his friend so far. Either has the .359 BABIP against him.
Fools’ Gold With the Favorite?
The market is clearly pricing Mahle as the better starter and the Twins having the better position player corps. And with a total of 7.5, the small ball gameplan is the strategy du jour. That helps Washington by virtue of their better OBP as compared to Minnesota’s early-season tendency towards higher slugging. That’s the strongest case for the dog in this one. For me, however, it comes down to the theoretical gap between Mahle and Williams, the Twins’ stronger defense, and a much better back end to the Minnesota bullpen.
All four of the Twins’ high-leverage arms are rested and available. Closers Duran and Lopez as well as setup men Jax and Thielbar have been idle since Tuesday. Granted, the Nats are in the same situation plus they benefit from the additional rest day. My money is firmly behind the super chalky home favorite though. Call me a fool but I’ll take all the help I can get in this one.
WAGER: Twins No Bat Bottom 9th -130 (1.3u)
WAGER: Twins F5/FG Parlay +125 (1u)
In full disclosure, the “Double Result” parlay price at widely available shops like DraftKings and FanDuel are in the -105 neighborhood. The off-market +125 I took is offshore, though -105 for this prop is reasonable. I’m too stingy to lay -210 even though I show a several percent margin over the money line price. More chalk? I suppose. Finding creative ways to play it? That’s how I’ll get my weekend started in the MLB.
Heading for Home
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