I’d say that the San Diego Padres made the under a little more interesting than it needed to be. But a win’s a win – even if it was just a half-unit total. On that note, the MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-21-2022 comes at you super early due to a scheduling issue I have first thing Thursday morning. You can’t wager a ton on overnights but there are good lines to be found when you’re looking for something specific. Let’s fire off another Solo Shot before getting to bed…
2022 Featured Handicap Results
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS @ NEW YORK METS (-115)
A. DeSclafani (R) vs. C. Carrasco (R)
I’ll be straightforward about this one: it’s all about small edges added together with the strategic advantage of batting last. The first small edge centers on the starting pitching matchup: maybe a quarter-run of FIP to Carlos Carrasco. Grounders and whiffs is what you get when Carlos’ stuff is on point. The 35-year-old veteran can be frustratingly deceptive on those “on” days, which could play into the Giants’ tendency towards striking out against righties so far this season.
That’s not to say that San Francisco has struggled by any means versus right-handed pitchers. Despite their actual struggles against southpaws, the Giants lineup stocked with good lefties has done damage in the right spots. Joc Pederson, Brandon Belt, and Brandon Crawford can make Cookie’s day a tough one – especially if they can lift the ball into a stiff wind likely to blow straight out of the park. In fact, Pederson and Belt posted 182 and 176 wRC+, respectively, against righties this season (thru 4/19).
Another Small Step
Neither Carrasco nor Anthony DeSclafani are immune to hard contact so the door is open for the Mets hitters as well. I respect DeSclafani as a pitcher about as much as I do his counterpart. Anthony’s game is control and we’re seeing him use the sinker a touch more than last season with limited success to date. Although my high-level range right for him is just above 4.00 FIP, he’s pretty close to Carrasco in Thursday’s scenario. But the Mets counter with some righty-smashers of their own. Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, and Eduardo Escobar have started the season with wRC+ of 208, 198, 177, respectively, against righties (thru 4/19). But I’m mixing these “short sample” numbers in at such a low dose that their offensive edge is conservatively only a couple %.
Both bullpens have been much better than the average MLB unit this season. Add another small edge for the Mets here – in the short-term as well as the bigger picture. Assuming Carrasco gets through the 5th inning this afternoon, New York has gotten some really good outings so far from lefty Chasen Shreve out of the bullpen. He could be an ace up their sleeve against a Giants’ offense posting a 43 wRC+ (thru 4/19) against left-handers. That’s well below expectation though I still have this as San Francisco’s weaker side. Just one more small piece of the puzzle that adds up to a solid Mets position for me.
WAGER: Mets -115
With a decent margin of safety tacked onto my number, paying up to -120 is reasonable. You just cannot sleep on a team like the Giants that is more than capable to get the road win. So overpaying for either side is not advised. BOL with your day!
Heading for Home
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