Well, sometimes it’s better to be lucky than right. And my first wager of the 2021 MLB season was a -150 play behind Brad Keller and the Royals – an amount of juice that I absolutely hate to lay. Bottom line: my read on Keller was way off the mark, but the KC offense did enough to get the 14-10 W. And how about that Giants bullpen? Regardless, that was yesterday and now it’s time to get the MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-2-2021 rolling.
| Wins | Losses | Net Units | ROI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-1-2021 | 2 | 1 | +0.76 | +29.2% |
| SEASON | 2 | 1 | +0.76 | +29.2% |
Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins (-105)
In an Opening Day with scores like 14-10, 11-6, and 8-7; Florida’s teams found a way to produce a 1-0 pitchers’ duel. They combined for 8 hits and it took an Austin Meadows solo home run in the 8th inning to break the deadlock for good. Both offenses were stymied by Tyler Glasnow and Sandy Alcantara, who were supported by decent work from their bullpens. But the context of today’s matchup is different as the Marlins face a lefty in Ryan Yarbrough. Therefore, I expect this Miami offense to capitalize in a scenario where I have penciled them as being about 1 run/game better than vs. right-handed pitchers.
While Miami’s bullpen is not terrible, they yield a significant advantage to Tampa Bay’s top-tier relief unit. Sure, the Rays “used up” their three of their better relievers yesterday but this bullpen is super deep and can function fairly well with guys like Chaz Roe and Andrew Kittredge. So when you find an edge with Miami and it is stronger without the bullpen, that’s where you have to focus.
R. Yarbrough (L) vs. P. Lopez (R)
Tampa Bay’s Ryan Yarbrough has risen through the ranks of reliever and opener, earning his way onto this reshaped rotation. The big lefty is not an overpowering pitcher, though he is stingy with walks and home runs. Yarbrough has also shown an ability to avoid hard contact in his three years in the majors and has been just as good as a starter than he was in relief. And while most of his splits are fairly neutral, he has a lower strikeout rate against righties on the road. That said, I do not attribute a big discrepancy against Ryan in this scenario.
His opponent, Pablo Lopez, enters his fourth MLB season as a 4.00 FIP caliber starter with high expectations from manager Don Mattingly. He had a masterful 11-start 2020 season in which he was nearly 1.25 FIP better at home than on the road. In fact, Lopez has been significantly better at Marlins Park than elsewhere throughout his short career. Plus the kid has continued to tick up his velocity while introducing a better menu of breaking balls. And considering that he had a very good Spring Training warmup, I don’t see why a 4.00 FIP projection is unreasonable for him this year.
If there is any reservation against Lopez, it’s how he struggled early in the 2018 and 2019 seasons. Last year was much different though, as he rolled off three quality starts in his first six outings. Those other three starts produced no more than 2 earned runs but they lasted only 5 innings. His really strong run to start the 2020 campaign came to a head in back-to-back midseason starts against Tampa. Lopez was stellar in his August 29th start at home, scattering 2 runs over 7 innings with 6 hits. But the Rays returned the favor in their house a week later by popping him for 5 runs on 5 hits in a short 4 inning outing. Based on the way that Pablo closed out the 2020 season and progressed through the spring, I expect a near-repeat of his August 29th gem.
WAGER: Marlins First 5 Innings @ -105 (Good to -130)
This is a scenario where the starting pitching advantage has flip-flopped from Opening Day to today. I estimated about a 1 run/game edge to Tyler Glasnow over Sandy Alcantara yesterday. Tonight, however, Pablo Lopez has the edge in my eyes. Let’s take the Miami bullpen out of the equation and capitalize on what shapes up to be a 2-1 type of score after 5 innings. Granted, I was way off on my estimation of starting pitching in the Royals game yesterday – but I like Lopez enough to back what should be a solid season debut from the 25-year-old. Can Brian Anderson and the Marlins’ bats capitalize? Just enough is what i say.
San Francisco Giants @ Seattle Mariners (-130)
Last night’s performance by the Giants had plenty of early high points that were abruptly ended by a bullpen performance for the ages. Seattle took advantage of plenty of free passes handed out by the San Francisco relievers and squeezed out an 8-7 win. All that came after the Mariners were down 6-1 going into the bottom of the 8th inning.
But what is especially relevant to today’s handicap is how the Giants’ offense pounced quickly off of Seattle’s best starter, lefty Marco Gonzales. Platoon hitters Evan Longoria, Wilmer Flores, and Austin Slater accounted for 5 hits – including 2 doubles and home runs from Longo and Slater. As stated in yesterday’s handicap, the San Francisco lineup feasted on lefties last year and should be expected to extend that success in 2021. So far, so good.
J. Cueto (R) vs. Y. Kikuchi (L)
Tonight’s pitching matchup offers plenty of scoring opportunities, as both lineups have favorable splits against each other’s starter. Seattle is a significantly better offense against righties and Johnny Cueto is at a point in his career where you don’t want to depend on him heavily for your betting success. While the Mariners’ Yusei Kikuchi is at a different place in his career arc than Cueto, he is a lefty and that plays to the Giants’ strong suit.
In fact, Kikuchi has been universally worse against righties to the tune of an additional 0.46 FIP. He posted a 6.07 FIP against righties at home throughout his two years in the MLB. Even though he was much better in 2020 than 2019, his splits are still strongly biased in this scenario. My outlook for Yusei this season is about somewhere in between his 2019 MLB debut and last season’s rebound effort. So that still leaves the door open enough for the Giants to put up their share of runs again tonight.
WAGER: Giants Team Total Over 4 @ +105 (Good to -115)
My preference with this game is to take Johnny Cueto and the Giants bullpen out of the equation. As opposed to Opening Day where I was perfectly fine hitching my wagon to Kevin Gausman, today’s perspective is a bit different. I project a 4-6 run output by the Giants as they face off against a lefty starter who is by no means stifling. You can find over a Giants team total over 3.5 runs for -130, but I’ll shoot for the small plus-money return and stare down a push on 4. I don’t hate a Giants wager to win the game at plus-money either if you cannot access team total wagers – though this mismatch is all about the bats.
Around the Horn
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