After three straight dropped solo shot features, a winning Thursday was just what the doctor ordered. Since those three positions were the only wagers on Thursday’s personal betting card the Rays’ big 5th inning was a breath of fresh air. That and fixing what made our website go rogue made for a big moral victory. The weekend is here and so is a pair of handicaps in the MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-15-2023. BOL!
2023 Featured Handicap Results
LOS ANGELES ANGELS @ BOSTON RED SOX (LAA -106, 9.5)
The Red Sox return to the featured handicap slot after Thursday’s disastrous 5th inning in St. Petersburg. This time, Boston is not staring down the barrel of an undefeated 12-0 club. Instead, they face the Angels’ big guns Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout for game two of this weekend series. Last night, it was all about the late-game comeback against an L.A. bullpen that has been surprisingly decent to date. Plus this relief unit benefitted from a day off on Thursday as opposed to the Sox, which has been working quite a bit lately.
When it comes to these two lineups, there is plenty pointing toward equal footing in today’s situation – specifically as the Angels face the right-handed Nick Pivetta. L.A.’s .246/.343/.402 slash line shrinks a bit when isolating their splits against righties. They shed .042 points of OPS down to .226/.329/.364. Compare that to a Red Sox offense that has generally been uninspiring outside of Rafael Devers and the now-injured Adam Duvall. It is a lineup that is underperforming per my expectations, especially against lefties. Whether or not that trend begins to reverse this afternoon is part of the upside case for the home team. And the other issue plaguing Boston is a rough stretch defensively that puts them at a disadvantage to a good fielding Angels squad.
T Anderson (L) vs. N Pivetta (R)
Don’t let ERA fool you with today’s starters Tyler Anderson and Nick Pivetta. There’s a wide gap after each veteran’s first couple outings but Pivetta’s 0.90 ERA is more fraudulent once you dig in. And the betting line on this game reflects more parity than not.
LAA vs. BOS Starting Pitcher Comparison
| ERA | FIP | xFIP | GB% | HH% | K% | BB% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anderson | 4.22 | 6.93 | 5.75 | 42.4% | 35.3% | 17.0% | 8.5% |
| Pivetta | 0.90 | 5.07 | 4.78 | 28.0% | 68.0% | 28.6% | 11.9% |
I hold these two in similar mid-4.00 FIP ranges, an area that Nick Pivetta has hung around the last couple seasons with Boston. The 30-year-old arguably has a broader range due to the higher strikeout and walk rates. Tyler Anderson, on the other hand, plays the role of the weak contact-inducing lefty contact pitcher. The results have been night-and-day between the two starts as the Blue Jays’ 3 home runs swung that game much differently than the 4-hit affair with Oakland.
Both bullpens have been reasonably good, though the Red Sox’ unit will be more limited on the back end. Angels’ closer Carlos Estevez and primary setup man Jose Quijada haven’t seen the field for a few days and are shoe-ins for action if this one is close. High-50s temperatures and a slight breeze in from right field calls for a look at the under 9.5 but I am not a taker on the total this afternoon.
WAGER: Red Sox +100 (2u)
FanDuel is dealing even money on the Red Sox this morning, though there is plenty of margin of safety with this line compared to where my handicap puts this game. I’ve made much worse bets in my life compared to taking even money on a home team with so many aspects being close to equal. Then again, I am slightly skewed towards my outlook for this Boston lineup as opposed to where they are right now in the season – so take that with a grain of salt.
ATLANTA BRAVES @ KANSAS CITY ROYALS (ATL -140, 9)
B Elder (R) vs. K Bubic (L)
There was an interesting discussion on Twitter yesterday about why the Braves dropped from a -150 overnight price to -130 in the afternoon. But when the dust settled, all that mattered was Atlanta’s firm advantage at the plate en route to a 10-3 victory. That poses the question, did they save anything for this afternoon? The better question, in my opinion, circles around which of these starting pitchers is for real.
ATL vs. KCR Starting Pitcher Comparison
| ERA | FIP | xFIP | GB% | HH% | K% | BB% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elder | 0.00 | 2.48 | 3.55 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 28.3% | 8.7% |
| Bubic | 1.64 | 1.55 | 2.75 | 55.6% | 32.1% | 30.2% | 2.3% |
23-year-old Bryce Elder’s results are arguably sketchier than Kris Bubic’s, who has been a totally different pitcher this season. His reversal of fortune when it comes to strikeouts, walks, and hard contact has been dramatic in the first two starts. Six innings of shutout ball with 9 Ks in San Francisco was an eye opener, though so is the Giants’ overall inability to hit lefties. Compare that to a Braves lineup that has torched southpaws with a .328/.406/.466 line and a third-best .872 OPS. This will be Bubic’s toughest test by far. At least cooler temps and a stiff crosswind shouldn’t hurt him.
Flip to the other side and there’s a lot to like with Elder’s work to date. Plus that spike in hard contact can mostly be attributed to his first start in St. Louis – a lineup that has been about 40% more productive than their cross-state counterpart. What does all of this mean? Not much, if you ask me. These are both 4-ish FIP starters who have begun the 2023 season with phenomenal results. Both bullpens are mostly unencumbered after having Thursday off. So to say that Atlanta’s 1/2 to 1+ run relief pitching advantage is intact today might be an understatement. If the starting pitchers are roughly equivalent, doesn’t a 58% win probability for Atlanta sound low?
WAGER: Braves -140 (1.75u)
WAGER: Braves RL +110 (0.5u)
It does to me. Somewhere around 4-7% light per my handicap. So I’m willing to get chalky and push my luck a little with a run line splash. Ms. JJ warns me about getting cute but this is a spot where I appreciate the lineup and bullpen advantage too much to pass on reaching for a little yield with the +110.
Heading for Home
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