After a weekend on the road and Monday back in the office, the MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-13-2021 is back! I broadened Sunday’s card to four plays, but the Tigers fell just short of delivering a nice payday. Looks like they were the play last night though. I need to do a better job of coordinating my schedule with Detroit’s good days it seems. All good though, as we keep chugging along through the 2021 season. So it’s time for a solo shot and then I’ve gotta get out the door…
Washington Nationals @ St. Louis Cardinals (-120)
If you’re not a fan of betting unders in the MLB, you can either close this tab or keep on reading for a few insights into this evening’s game at Busch Stadium. And I’ll be brutally honest that totals frustrated me for a couple year “experimental” period several seasons back. Nonetheless, this is where I ended up with a matchup that features a pair of the best arms in the National League – at least outside of Southern California anyways.
Capitalizing on Sluggishness
Let’s start with these offenses, shall we? Going into last night’s game, each lineup struggled quite a bit against right-handed pitching. The Nationals have a good excuse though as the newly-acquired power bats of Kyle Schwarber and Josh Bell had been sidelined through the weekend. But their presence was felt immediately upon their return. This duo delivered a 3-for-8 effort against righty John Gant and the Cardinals bullpen. While their presence in the Washington lineup doesn’t have the same effect of Juan Soto and Trea Turner, you definitely have to bump up expectations for the Nats versus right-handed pitching. After all, Bell and Schwarber are about 30%-50% stronger against righties than they are against southpaws. So throw their 34 wRC+ and .026 ISO against right-handed pitching out the window, especially when Juan Soto is slashing .300/.440/.600 in his first six games of the season.
Although St. Louis hasn’t necessarily struggled against righties this season, they’re still below average in this area. That’s about where I have them pegged for a season-long expectation as well. And the Cardinals have been notoriously slow starters at the plate in most of their games this season. In fact, the Redbirds and their opponents have scored 3 runs or less in each of their last four games. Washington has generally obliged by doing the same in three of their last four games, although the absence of Bell and Schwarber has something to do with that.
Last night’s contest featured a pair of marginal starting pitchers – both righties – who combined to give up just 1 run in the first 5 innings. Erick Fedde and Jon Gant are mid-4.00s FIP arms at best, yet they held their opponents at bay. So when you consider that the Cardinals mustered just 2 runs against Milwaukee’s Corbin Burnes, Adrian Houser, and Brett Anderson, their fate against Stephen Strasburg looks just as barren. The Nationals were also stymied in the early innings against the Dodgers over the weekend, although guys like Walker Buehler and Clayton Kershaw have that effect on a lot of teams. Again, Bell and Schwarber being in the lineup affects this perspective. They are very inconsistent bats, but ones that can do damage in a hurry.
Bullpens in Play?
Although I am taking the bullpens out of play – assuming the starters oblige to my handicap – both teams needed 4+ innings out of their relievers last night. St. Louis’ Giovanny Gallegos gave up a rare run in 2 innings of work before Andrew Miller melted down for 3 hits and a walk. So you can realistically expect the Cardinals to lean on Alex Reys and Jordan Hicks tonight if the game plays out closely. Washington, on the other hand, worked their preferred line of Daniel Hudson, Tanner Rainey, and Brad Hand through the final three scoreless innings to victory. Both bullpens have been fine this season, achieving at or slightly better than expectation.
S. Strasburg (R) vs. J. Flaherty (R)
As I alluded to earlier, the Strasburg vs. Flaherty matchup is the National League’s premier pairing tonight. I think it rivals the American League’s Bieber vs. Giolito matchup, but I digress. Stephen Strasburg started his 2021 campaign off strongly after an injury-consumed 2020 season by pitching 6 innings of 1-hit ball against the Braves last week. When this guy is healthy, he is unflappable whether at home or on the road. Strasburg has a career 2.71 FIP against right-handed hitters, which is about a half-run better than versus lefties. And this meshes well with St. Louis’ righty-heavy lineup that typically resorts to platooning Matt Carpenter and Justin Williams at the bottom of their order.
His counterpart, 25-year-old Jack Flaherty, got his season off on the wrong foot by going toe-to-toe with Cincinnati’s Luis Castillo. And by “toe-to-toe” I mean coughing up 6 runs in less than 5 innings of work while Castillo also imploded. Granted, the Reds lineup was on fire to begin the season and has since cooled down. But Flaherty rebounded nicely with 6 innings of 1-hit ball in Miami – delivering damn near the same line that Strasburg did in his start that same day. Plus he has been about a half-run better in his starts at Busch Stadium.
While the looming question is what to realistically expect from Jack tonight, you have to weigh his 2020 struggles with a grain of salt. The guy was close to lights out in 2018 and regained that dominant form after the 2019 All-Star Break. Then he hit some bumpy roads last year. When you peel back the layers of that COVID-shortened season though, you see that Flaherty yielded 19 runs in 25.1 innings against familiar foes in the NL Central. That is a stark contrast to just 3 runs in 15 innings against the AL Central – although the big caveat being that those three starts came against the sluggish offenses of Kansas City, Cleveland, and Detroit. Of course, we struggle with interpreting 2021’s “small sample size” conundrum.
So is this what we are starting to see in 2021 for Jack? Strong outside of the division and weaker against the NL Central? It’s too early to lean on that perspective, so I still hold him as a mid-to-high-3.00s FIP pitcher who should do well tonight if he limits walks and avoids the big bats of Bell and Schwarber. Pair him with the consistent mid-3.00s FIP Stephen Strasburg and this has all the makings of a 1-1 or 2-1 game through 5 innings.
WAGER: First 5 Innings Under 4 @ -125
The first issue with my wager is that you need access to a book that offers a range of totals. At least one offshore book reliably offers this feature, while a widely-available domestic operator like DraftKings may only offer 3.5. In my opinion, taking under 3.5 is walking a fine line but could still be a good play if it comes with plus money. Unders can feel downright ugly in the MLB, though this is a rare opportunity that gets my money. BOL today with whatever you bet!
Around the Horn
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