The sloppy show in Cincinnati soured Baltimore’s rocking chair winner Saturday afternoon. Being risk averse helped in that case, though getting involved in what turned out to be a messy one is another story altogether. A productive opening weekend left us ready to tackle a meaty Monday slate that is somewhat disappointing from a betting perspective. Our betting card is slim but there was enough to find a featured handicap to start the week in the MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-1-2024. BOL!
PITTSBURGH PIRATES @ WASHINGTON NATIONALS (WSN -115, 8.5)
Out of all of the opening weekend series that you would expect fireworks and intense moments from, I can’t say that Pittsburgh/Miami would have been at the top of the list. Any time the Pirates were pressured late in that four-game set, the offense answered the call. Now they head away from comfortable LoanDepot Park and into less favorable hitting conditions in the nation’s capital. Sub-60’s temps with a breeze in this afternoon is responsible for keeping the total under 9 despite what we just saw from the Pirates’ bats.
Washington’s weekend was far from uneventful as well. After suffering an Opening Day blowout at the hands of the Cincinnati Reds, they made things very interesting in the late innings of the final two games. Bullpen considerations are significant for both clubs after their intense weekend finales. The Nationals are likely to be without two-thirds of their back end trio after Kyle Finnegan and Hunter Harvey made back-to-back high-leverage appearances. Similarly, the Bucs leaned into their relief unit’s better half after Friday’s smoother Friday. Be sure to adjust for diminished late-innings options for both managers to turn to.
M Gonzales (L) vs. M Gore (L)
Before the threat of chaos swirls around innings six through nine, a pair of southpaws take the mound to give their clubs a shot to keep the game in check. Expectations for longtime Mariners starter Marco Gonzales are in line with his post-2020 work. Fortunately, he is healthy after missing nearly all of the 2023 season due to flexor tendon surgery. ERAs right around 4.00 in the two prior seasons came with FIPs and xFIPs about one run higher as a low-strikeout pitch-to-contact guy who has struggled to miss bats. Will that be a big problem in this game though?
It’s not as if the Nationals offense has showed us much other than CJ Abrams getting on base and being a disruptive force. Jesse Winker and Eddie Rosario aren’t in favorable positions against the lefty, although Gonzales has not produced lopsided splits throughout his career. Joey Gallo is almost certainly in line to be left off of the lineup card – not necessarily a bad thing for Dave Martinez’ crew. My preseason adjustments accounted for a healthy downgrade to the lineup’s effectiveness against left-handed pitching. That was mostly due to anticipated regression out of Lane Thomas and backup catcher Riley Adams.
Targeted Upside?
25-year-old MacKenzie Gore finally got his MLB career on track despite one setback after another. The former Padres’ #3 overall draft pick made 27 starts last season with a 4.42 ERA and 4.89 FIP/4.11 xFIP. Walks keep Gore’s 25%+ strikeout rate in check, although this afternoon’s conditions should muffle his home run tendencies. A rough finale to Spring Training took some of the luster off of decent work leading into the season, so it’s tough to gauge form in that respect. Note an interesting low-strikeout, low-hit profile in the first three games. Nonetheless, MacKenzie did have a fairly good start to the 2023 campaign against some quality offenses and an outing at Coors Field. Mid-4.00s expectations seem reasonable considering his career progression.
Facing one of the hotter lineups is the key challenge in my eyes. Then again, sub-60 temps are both pitchers’ friend this afternoon. Regardless, I make Pittsburgh’s offense multiple percentage points less productive in the split against left-handers compared to righties. But the strong start by the likes of Bryan Reynolds, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Connor Joe, and Michael A Taylor challenge my ratings in this one.
WAGER: Nationals First 5 Innings -122
Bullpen variance and an accurate market price have me avoiding the full game situation. Small adjustments specific to this game in favor of the Pirates’ primed offense close the gap between these lineups’ effectiveness against left-handed pitching too. Yet I still make MacKenzie Gore and the Nats enough of a favorite on the first 5 inning line to lay -122 at FanDuel this morning. Too much faith in the half-run or greater edge for Gore over Gonzales? Perhaps. A feisty dog may be barking in Washington D.C. but my money is behind the Nats before this game goes to the bullpen.
2024 Featured Handicap Results
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