Opening Day is in the books and was it something or what? Other than our Fenway Park under getting obliterated, we survived a very sweaty day on the diamonds. And I wouldn’t have it any other way. The hangover from the first MLB bender of the year is real…and it was spectacular. Friday’s slate is much shorter but one handicap stood out amongst the rest for me. So let’s fire up a solo shot with the MLB Morning Breakdown for 3-31-2023!
2023 Featured Handicap Results
NEW YORK METS @ MIAMI MARLINS (NYM -110, 7.5)
D Peterson (L) vs. J Luzardo (L)
Game 2 at loanDepot Park does not feature quite the elite starting pitcher matchup like yesterday’s Scherzer-Alcantara showdown. But today’s battle of mid-tier lefties offers an interesting twist for each lineup. These young southpaws have plenty of MLB exposure in various capacities over the last few seasons. Now both are slotted into the 2023 rotation – Jesus Luzardo as a key component for Miami; David Peterson out of necessity with Jose Quintana and Justin Verlander on the IL to start the season.
Luzardo’ maturation and change of scenery from Oakland to Miami has justifiably earned higher expectations. The 25-year-old is in one of those more starts, less strikeouts kind of modes as the Marlins look to stretch him out over a full season. Last year’s 3.32 ERA, 3.12 FIP/3.11 xFIP breakout carried a 30.0% strikeout rate with borderline 40.1% ground ball and 39.1% hard hit rates. I hate to be that guy, but the key flag of regression is the .253 BABIP over 18 starts. But there is a lot to like with Luzardo’s tight range in the mid-to-upper 3.00s.
His counterpart David Peterson seems to have found the slider that abandoned him in 2021. This key secondary is especially critical if the Mets expect the 27-year-old to follow up on a decent 3.42 FIP/3.24 xFIP effort as a starter last season. But it often comes down to how and when the ground ball left-hander caves into hard contact and command woes. The issue of walks – 10%+ in each of his three seasons – is why my expectation for him are slightly wider than Luzardo’s. Otherwise, my baseline numbers for the two are essentially on par.
Balls In Play
The starting pitcher context adds an interesting wrinkle to both lineups. Miami’s group got a big lift with the Luis Arraez trade and a healthy Jazz Chisholm Jr, though neither can lay claim to strength against southpaws. So this likely becomes a situation where new manager Skip Schumaker calls on the speedy Jon Berti and/or Yuri Gurriel, who was decent against left-handers despite an overall rough offensive 2022. But there still is a steep dropoff in handedness splits for the Marlins that must be factored into the handicap.
New York faces a similar phenomenon. Except the Mets have a higher baseline to begin with, holding close to a 20% advantage in both the broad-based and situation-specific offensive lenses. All that comes with a downward offseason adjustment too. Plus the Metropolitans have limited platoon flexibility if Buck Showalter wants to go that route against Luzardo, who gave up 7 runs in 9.1 innings against them last year. That’s not to say Jesus was not sharp in his second of two starts in the Bronx. So Miami’s starter should get the benefit of the doubt when looking back at 2022.
I expect both bullpens to play a significant role tonight with both Peterson and Luzardo right around the 5.0 IP mark. Miami spared two of their back end relievers last night in AJ Puk and Dylan Floro, giving their bullpen a slight leg up over New York’s. After all, this is a four-game series extending through the weekend that will lean heavily on these relief units. Don’t count out the Mets going back to a Brooks Raley or Drew Smith in conjunction with Adam Ottavino in a close late game scenario though.
WAGER: Mets -115 (1.15u)
WAGER: Mets First 5 Innings -110 (1.1u)
It’s never great knowing that you overpaid on a wager, but here we are again much like yesterday with Pittsburgh. Down 1.1% in value before this gets published but still in the good compared to my probable win percentage range for the Mets. The freshness of the season kept me from piling both parts of the position into the first 5 inning wager. Not having the strongest of reads on Peterson and Luzardo out of the gates will do that to a guy. Regardless, the full game position carries a few points of edge and is worth diversifying against Peterson’s wider range of outcomes this evening.
Heading for Home
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