For better or worse, late inning drama was everywhere on Opening Day. It was certainly instrumental in getting the two positions in our post to the pay window. The over in Kansas City was all but shriveled up on the vine until the 8th run came across in the final frame of regulation; Wilyer Abreu’s bomb in the top of the 9th broke the deadlock in Arlington. The drama did not spare my Cincinnati Reds though. But with a bullpen like that, what else do you expect? We move forward with the MLB Morning Breakdown for 3-29-2025 that features a good matchup in Arizona plus a position in the Pittsburgh/Miami game.
Sunday is another day on the road so the next Morning Breakdown drops Monday. New week, new rack of series to close out the month of March. BOL and enjoy the games!
CHICAGO CUBS @ ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS (ARI -120, 8.5)
S Imanaga (L) vs. B Pfaadt (R)
Chicago found their happy place in Arizona Thursday night after a tough start to the season in Tokyo. Granted, Dodgers pitching generally surpasses D-backs pitching in quality. Plus Nico Hoerner was back in the saddle after missing the first two games. The Cubs’ offense went off on Opening Day in support of Justin Steele, who has yet to get a handle on his effectiveness. Then Merrill Kelly held them in check last night as Arizona evened the series with a dominant 8-1 victory.
Tonight the Cubbies face the youngest of the Arizona rotation, 26-year-old right-hander Brandon Pfaadt. As noted in our NL West preview, “Some of us paid the price for trusting [Pfaadt’s] FIP discrepancy (4.71 ERA, 3.61 FIP/3.58 xFIP) one too many times.” Cue the Ah shit, here we go again meme as Pfaadt posted a 4.80 ERA with a more favorable 3.73 FIP/4.16 xFIP over 15.0 IP this spring. I’m not sure whether the .386 BABIP in Spring Training should make me feel better or worse about his prospects for the regular season debut. Committing as a Pfaadt positive regression believer or a skeptic makes a considerable difference in the handicap – roughly 20 cents to the line.
Hungry For Southpaws
Our Opening Day breakdown acknowledged Arizona’s strength against left-handed pitching, as well as the stiff downgrade we made to that split this offseason. Chicago’s Shota Imanaga was equal parts impressive and sketchy in the season opener against the Dodgers, walking 4 batters in 4.0 innings without yielding a hit. It’s tough to knock the struggle with his fastball given all of the emotion and the big stage in Tokyo, let alone the monstrous lineup that L.A. is known for. The whiffs were there in that short outing, so expecting Imanaga to ditch the yips and get back to his 5 K/BB ratio ways in this contest is a fair place to start.
This does not discount Arizona’s offensive competence by any means. They handled southpaw Justin Steele efficiently Thursday – again, this could be equal parts Steele’s rustiness and the D-backs’ strength. Our high level projections favor Steele over Imanaga slightly, though not necessarily in this series given their opening salvos.
Do you trust Pfaadt’s ERA or his FIP/xFIP? Buy this D-backs’ strength against left-handers…even against Shota? Our numbers surround the current market price though value may reside with the Cubs if you are a skeptic of Brandon Pfaadt’s underperformance of his underlying metrics. The organization surely is a buyer considering they just extended the kid yesterday. Arizona’s roof is scheduled to be open tonight, playing tight to Chase Field’s open air park factor baseline. I started this handicap yesterday afternoon before lines were up and unfortunately am sitting on the sidelines this morning because of how well this is priced given my hangups.
PITTSBURGH PIRATES @ MIAMI MARLINS (PIT -125, 8.5)
B Falter (L) vs. V Bellozo (R)
The action in South Florida has been interesting to say the least after two late-inning nail biters. Miami’s Opening Day walk off was nearly duplicated as their ninth inning charge fell a run short yesterday. Both teams dig into their starting pitcher bags o’ fun for game three, revealing a pair who resemble one another quite a bit. Not so much with what arm they pitch with but in their profiles. Pittsburgh’s Bailey Falter and Miami’s Valente Bellozo pitch to contact without much swing-and-miss. Contact is often hard and in the air.
Pittsburgh is hitting right-handed pitching close to our projections in the very early goings. They’ve managed a pair of home runs in this regard and now face a young righty whose Achilles’ heel has been the long ball at the AAA level and as an MLB rookie in 2024 (1.97 HR/9). Plus Bellozo yielded 1+ homers in each of his last three Spring Training outings. The door is certainly open for this modest-hitting Pirates lineup to make some hay with Valente on the bump. Note that Pittsburgh’s second baseman Nick Gonzales is injured and is likely to be replaced by Adam Frazier who represents a firm downgrade.
On the other hand, Miami catches a nickel and dime-prone Bailey Falter. The problem is how their lineup is ill-suited to take advantage of southpaws like Falter. It’s foolish to base too much – or anything – on early results. They are generally supportive of our low expectations for this split coming into the season though. The likes of Otto Lopez and Dane Myers need to answer the call to keep the Marlins in this contest early before the bullpens come into play. That said, I’m truly not interested in getting to the relievers. Our approach to taking advantage of the expected edge of Falter > Bellozo and each lineup’s handedness tendencies is to play the first 5 innings market. Since so much of the first half handicap depends on these starting pitchers in their 2025 debuts, our exposure is capped. Sketchy = fun, right?
WAGER: Pirates F5 Innings -125 (0.75u to win 0.6u)
2025 Featured Handicap Results
| Wins | Losses | Net | ROI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opening Day | 2 | 0 | +2.05 | +101.5% |
| SEASON | 2 | 0 | +2.05 | +101.5% |
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