The Yellow Flag Fiesta at the end of Sunday’s race at Kansas was a nail biter. Brad Keselowski’s Championship hopes were dashed at the expense of runner-up Chase Elliott. Round 3 of the NASCAR Playoffs shifts from the speedy 1.5-mile tri-oval to the half-mile short track at Martinsville Speedway. It’s time to ride for the BetCrushers Martinsville NASCAR race preview!
Week in Review: Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas
Despite splitting our four-pack of plays, we scratched out a 1/2 unit of profit as Chase Elliott and Kurt Busch rallied late to win their matchups. Aric Almirola’s #10 team disappointed us as a pit violation essentially knocked him out of his matchup and a Top 10 finish. ICYMI, it took a wacky double-OT finish of the Hollywood Casino 400 to somehow get Kurt Busch ahead of Erik Jones, which was a profitable race day addition to our betting card.
In retrospect, we were wrong to turn our back on Erik Jones as a Top 10 contender. Thankfully, somehow, we came out on the right side with Kurt’s successful navigation of the yellow flag fiesta. The addition of head-to-head matchups to our NASCAR wagering repertoire this season has given us the ability to diversify beyond the volatile “to win” betting markets. Our twice-weekly NASCAR handicapping coverage has been a success so far and we look forward to a full 2020 season at BetCrushers.com.
Who Survived the Cut to 8?
Realistically, only six of the top eight drivers heading into Kansas were safe from elimination. Joey Logano clung to the final transfer spot while Brad Keselowski dropped below the cut line. Brad joined William Byron, Clint Bowyer, and Alex Bowman as the last four out after 400 miles of racing on Sunday.
Denny Hamlin’s win cemented his spot in Round 3, though it was Chase Elliott’s epic performance that preserved his Championship hopes. Ironically, we doubted our early matchup play on Chase against Kyle Busch in the final handicapping article after lackluster practice laps. We’ll chalk up the Elliott matchup win to good fortune and consider Sunday’s buyer’s remorse statement as premature:
Let’s put it this way: if you want to bet this matchup right now, you’ll get +180 to back Elliott. We played this in conjunction with our race preview article but the mismatch with their cars is now quite evident. Anything can happen in a NASCAR race to put a driver at a severe disadvantage or knock them out of the race. However, relying on that to win a matchup bet is very shaky. Given the circumstances, Elliott v. Busch is a pass.
Projecting the Playoff Field into Homestead
Round 3 of the NASCAR Playoffs features races at Martinsville, Texas, and Phoenix. As with most analysts, we expected the big guns of Busch, Truex, Logano, Hamlin, and Harvick to still be in contention at this point. We also projected Elliott, Keselowski, and Kurt Busch or Kyle Larson to round out the group of eight. Blaney’s Talladega win locked him in, while Brad got the boot due to Chase’s Kansas performance.
With seven of our projected eight still alive (and all five of our futures tickets), who do we see making the final four at Homestead? Our summer outlook progressed Busch, Truex, Harvick, and Hamlin or Keselowski to the showdown in Miami. All of these drivers have strengths at two of the three tracks. They should survive the final cut unless another of the remaining playoff drivers gets a win along the way.
A Championship Dark Horse
We also posed this question in the late-August playoffs outlook: “Looking for a Long Shot?”
Chase Elliott sits in the 7th position in playoff points heading into Darlington. He seems to have regained his early-season form and could shake things up in the post-season. Darlington should be good for him, though Indy isn’t one of his better tracks. But once he makes it to the playoffs the track lineup is not unfavorable at all. Chase won the Dover and Kansas races in 2018, while surviving Talladega this spring to take the checkered flag there. His odds to win the Championship are in the +1200 range.
Chase Elliott elbowed his way into the playoffs and has not looked back since. His engine troubles at Dover in Round 2 set him back significantly, but he’s been damn good otherwise. A win at the Roval punched his ticket out of the first round and the runner-up at Kansas last week saved his hide from a second elimination. Elliott has been clutch when it counts and could very well find himself in contention at Homestead. We may seem biased as holders of a pre-season futures ticket on Chase, but facts are facts.
Martinsville Speedway Track Overview
Martinsville Speedway is the shortest of the ten postseason tracks. At 0.526 miles per lap (we’ll call it a half-mile), drivers have to hammer both the throttle and the brakes to keep pace. Some call this a “paper clip” track because the long straightaways and tight symmetrical turns mimic paper clip proportions.
Martinsville Speedway’s 800-foot straightaways have no banking whatsoever. The four turns have 12-degree banks and concrete surfacing on the inner grooves, although the vast majority of the racing surface is asphalt. The 72-year old track for many years had dual pit roads like Bristol, but was reconfigured a couple decades ago to reduce the drastic disparity between the front stretch and backstretch pit lanes. The single pit road begins in Turn 3 and rejoins the main track in Turn 2.
Finding Winners at Martinsville
The First Data 500 features 500 brake-burning laps around the half-mile Martinsville Speedway track. Seven of the eight playoff drivers hold down the eight shortest odds at opening, with Kyle Larson being further down the list. Brad Keselowski is the lone non-playoff driver towards the top, which may have something to do with him winning here this spring.
Kyle Busch
Busch opened as the clear favorite this week for a very good reason: he hasn’t finished outside of the Top 5 since 2014. He won the spring 2016 and fall 2017 races and was runner-up twice in that eight-race period as well. Kyle is a killer at Martinsville and the odds reflect it. His opening matchup odds are no lower than -150, which is against last week’s Kansas winner and Joe Gibbs Racing teammate, Denny Hamlin. No need for us to waste any more time discussing Kyle because there’s very little value in his odds this week.
Brad Keselowski
Motivation. Does Brad have the fire to defend his spring victory at Martinsville? He just got squeezed out of the playoffs after a fairly lackluster Round 2. Keselowski’s three straight Top 5 finishes in Round 1 made it seem like he was dialed in for a Championship run. Then he faded, missing the Top 10 in all three of Round 2’s races. Granted, Dover is not a Keselowski track but Kansas is, which is cause for concern.
Oddsmakers are still rating him as a contender this week, and we respect him as a fierce competitor at Martinsville. This is the guy who led 446 of the 500 laps on his way to victory this spring. Brad missed the Top 15 in only one of the last seven races here, while capturing a pair of checkered flags. Martinsville is a Keselowski track, but the motivation question and current form make him a pass for us.
Chase Elliott
If you’ve been following our NASCAR coverage the last few months, it’s clear that we are big Chase Elliott backers. Considering how this third-year Cup Series driver has performed late in the season after a mid-summer swoon, you have to respect his play-offs determination. After solidifying his presence in the postseason, Elliott won the elimination race at the Roval despite dramatically slamming into the tire barrier. Then he damn near won last week’s eliminator to stay alive after the disastrous malfunction at Dover to start Round 2.
Elliott’s brief history at the Martinsville half-mile has been rocky, but is trending positively. His first two full years on the circuit were with the #24 team, where he made quick headway at Martinsville. The 2016 Martinsville races were part of the learning curve, but 2017 saw him break out with a 3rd place finish and a 27th where he led 123 laps. The results have been solid since joining the #9 team in 2018: 9th, 7th, & 2nd.
Chase Elliott (-115) over Joey Logano
So far, we’ve been silent on the defending First Data 500 champion Joey Logano. Logano’s mention comes as part of our first play of the week against Chase Elliott. How could we fade the defending race winner and NASCAR Cup Series Champion? It’s all about momentum, and we think Elliott has that advantage this weekend.
Logano won this race on his march to last year’s Cup Championship in the middle of a postseason run of five Top 10s in the first six playoff races. Three of those were Top 5s and the lone miss was a 14th at Richmond. We’d argue that Chase is playing the role that Joey did in 2018. The engine failure at Dover is Elliott’s only true miscue this postseason, accompanying his Roval win and a pair of Top 5s. Outside of Dover, Chase has outraced Joey in four of five playoff races and should top him again at Martinsville.
Jimmie Johnson
Remember when this guy won seven Cup Series Championships? Those days may be in the past, but don’t sleep on this crafty veteran. Despite missing the postseason this year, he’s found his way into the Top 10 in four of the last six races. His misses include an unfortunate early out at Talladega and an 11th at Las Vegas. That’s not bad for a non-contender.
Jimmie Johnson (+110) over Kyle Larson
Pitting him against someone still in the mix like Kyle Larson must mean there’s a significant disadvantage for the playoff driver, right? After all, Johnson hasn’t made the Top 10 at Martinsville since he last won here in the 2016 playoffs. To put it succinctly, this track is not one of Larson’s best. He hasn’t made the Top 10 since the 2016 spring race and has been outraced here by Johnson in five of the last six. We’re backing Jimmie Johnson against Kyle Larson at plus-money with the expectation of a solid run from the veteran.
Don’t Miss a Beat
This Martinsville race preview article dropped early this week and we expect the matchup menu to expand significantly Wednesday evening. Stay up to speed with the BetCrushers’ playbook before our final handicapping is released this weekend by following our Twitter feed and posted picks on the NASCAR page at BetCrushers.com.
