Buying low on the Texas Rangers last night was the result of ill-placed confidence in them righting the ship against a Mariners club that has essentially given up on the season. Marco Gonzales escaped a 2nd inning disaster with a 0-2 deficit and never looked back. Sampson got little support and gave his team little confidence to do so. A clear swing-and-miss on my part.
Today’s card has some decent matchups, but again, only one pre-game wager from me. It features a divisional matchup with one team pursuing their goal of returning to the playoffs, and another simply looking to play the role of spoiler.
St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Gonna Be a Bloodbath: Cardinals +119
Bloodbath may be the best way to describe the NL Central this year. The Cubs lead the pack at 8 games above .500 and only have a 1.5-game lead over the Brewers with the Cardinals just behind them. These guys look like they’ll keep beating each other senseless until one team limps into the playoffs.
Cardinals/Pirates is a matchup that falls right into this profile. In fact, Hudson/Archer specifically is a pitching pairing that begs the other teams to mash. Are the Pirates batters up to the task? They’ve struggled a bit with their scoring efficiency and don’t have an appreciable edge over the Cardinals in creating opportunities to score in recent weeks.
Hudson + Archer = Someone Call a Doctor
Dakota Hudson leaves the door open for his opponents with a 1.51 WHIP and doesn’t do himself any favors with a mediocre strikeout rate (6.62 K/9). A troubling trend with Hudson is that he’s given up at least one homer in each of his last 5 games (6 total). Though his 23.1% HR/FB rate is quite high, he surrenders fly balls at a minimal 9.2% clip.
Pittsburgh’s trade for Chris Archer has been highly criticized; trading future ace Tyler Glasnow and Austin Meadows apparently hasn’t panned out too well so far. Archer is a strikeout machine (10.52 K/9) with a slight weakness for walks (4.47 BB/9) and a massive liability with home runs (2.18 HR/9).
Regardless, Archer has performed better at home than he has on the road. His splits aren’t quite extreme enough to fully detail, but I will say that his average against and other related metrics are better at home. Archer still has a 22.4% HR/FB rate and 2.02 HR/9 ratio that show he can be exploited for quick runs. You don’t have to look too far back for a bright spot: he posted a quality start in St. Louis on July 17th by yielding 3 ER, 1 HR, 5 H, and 8 K/2 BB over 6 innings.
Who Can Seize the Opportunity?
Track records show that either starter is willing and able to give up some runs. St. Louis is in a better position to score efficiently against a guy like Archer who can be stifling with strikeouts but careless with the long ball. This could easily take the shape of last night’s game when the clubs traded blows and took the game to the bullpens in a deadlock.
Both bullpens have not been good, though I liked St. Louis’ relief unit going into the series better after getting a breather at the back end of the Cincinnati series. Both units were stretched out in last night’s 10-inning affair. Neither was stellar, though it was a planned bullpen/long reliever game for the Cardinals. I still lean towards the St. Louis bullpen in its current state.
Add in the Pirates’ defensive liability and I see enough incremental edges for the Redbirds. A lone exception may be a slight advantage with Archer at home over Hudson. All I ask out of Hudson is not to get blown out; a request of Adrian Sampson that went unfulfilled last night. The Cardinals are rolling along, albeit in a grindy fashion, notching an 8-2 record in their last 10 games that includes 4-1 on the road. Pittsburgh sits on a 2-8 mark in their last 10. +119 against Archer with a Cardinals team that is in a winning mode works for me.
